Whitehall “braced for private schools collapse” 2

[ICouldBeVioletSky]

Starting a second thread as the first one is still very busy, albeit it's veered off in a few directions...

Original article

https://www.thetimes.com/article/e6465c9e-d462-48cb-a73e-74480059a1f3?shareToken=05bf599cd4a2376fe3ce83cdce607100

I do not think it is in the best interests of children on FSM with additional deprivation factors to send them off on an expensive bus to the other side of town to mix with the middle classes. That money would be better spent on longer school hours and small group tutoring more locally to up their educational levels. Middle class kids are probably more likely to be able to cope with catching buses as when they come home dinner will be cooked and homework support is more likely to be provided. It is just nonsense thinking.
It is the usual that you can catch the middle classes aspiration somehow. Make those FSM kids suffer and travel and then what? They will have more time to study for their GCSEs and won’t have to look after their younger siblings, sometimes even parents, still go out and “find” dinner etc. and live in overcrowded conditions. It does not make any sense. Poorer kids with multiple deprivation factors need more positive attention from teachers, role models in adults, they need the state to put its hand in its pocket and make up the failings of their own parents. Does the Council somehow think the middle class kids can fulfil that role? It just does not make sense.

And can you remind me of your brief yesterday when you were dissing WP programs taking only snippets and arguing against it using basic economic arguments? Just illustrating how misleading that approach can be. The real picture is more complex and we are talking about DC, not statistics, in both cases.

I do get that point @Araminta1003 . I am just feeling slightly resigned with regards to everything that is being done to children at the moment.

> Covid - closing the schools for so long, damaging so many children emotionally and academically , especially lower socioeconomic groups.
> The proposed changes to the curriculum. I am sure it is well intended but I believe it will be dumbing it down. And bad luck to all children who were on the maths and Latin programmes.
> Ofsted re-rating, I believe that system has a lot of issues but taking out the overall assessment is not great in my view.
> and now proposed bussing - which already was tried and found failing in several places earlier.
> teacher certification or similar requirement (only skimmed this but many hugely efficient teacher may not have this)
> hurting the academies such as the Micaela school which were hugely successful due to the freedom they previously had.
> and of course VAT, introduced mid-year, hugely damaging for SEN children and the poor parents who could not fund it. Posters heard gloating about it.

meanwhile, money seems to flow like water in many other areas…. But the only thing coming to the children (apart from all these ideological efforts) is whatever the VAT will bring in. Money will be much less than expected as student move or are forced to move as schools closes, any teachers losing their jobs as schools saves money or closes (NI also raised for employers) will need to be funded by taxpayer.

Agree

There are many, many cities like Brighton preparing for the surplus of school places - which is good news for those private parents who are going to - apparently- need places.
Same is happening in our town for primary places - numbers are dropping and infant and junior schools being merged, having more pupils need places wouldn’t be a bad thing at all. If it happens.

Some of the private parents need places now in secondary schools not in 2031!

And that helps current Y8-12 how exactly?

Perhaps Year 11 DC can be bussed from Yorkshire to Brighton each day and repeat Reception synthetic phonics for several years? Think of what a great levelling (down, of course) that will be!

I don't think you've made the point you think you have.

You've given a recommendation on impacts of VAT from the point of view of a private school (you seem to have particularly targetted it at a high status one, which might want to expand its international offering).

So what? It's surely pretty obvious that my interest is that of a) a parent and b) a tax payer.

That doesn't mean that analysis doesn't work: just that you didn't consider the right question. Of course it can be applied to the impacts on children.

Where did you do your MBA? Have you ever used it, either in a strategic role in a company or else in a management consultancy?

I'm genuinely a bit puzzled.

I'm sorry you are puzzled. I tried to keep it simple. I didn't look at the impact of VAT on a single private school. It was the UK private education sector as a whole and the glib conclusions that can be reached by not considering the complexities of a situation. Widening Participation can be similarly misunderstood.

Top international business school and very large management consultancy and FTSE100 in-house senior strategic roles.

I suggest we leave it here.

Plenty already, thankfully. Future planning is needed so that the surplus is looked at, unless of course there is that influx from private parents leaving the that sector. So all good. Although right now it seems the government figures for those leaving because of the removal of tax breaks, are accurate.

“unless of course there is that influx from private parents leaving the that sector.”

We aren’t sure how many of these parents will behave. Plenty may up sticks to another country with more favourable tax treatment towards them, it’s not just the education tax, but the whole picture that matters. Lots of this demographic are reassessing, including some who could easily afford the VAT but simply find it offensive. And that is the trouble. You cannot get away from the fact that it is simply offensive to many.

No there aren't. Still in bulge years for secondary until 2028.
Show me the figures that say exodus is in line with government figures because I have them saying, in 1 term, it has already exceeded the expected total for the whole academic year.

Exactly! This cohort has been punished enough through covid etc. Why couldn't this wait for these bulge years to pass?!

“Exactly! This cohort has been punished enough through covid etc. Why couldn't this wait for these bulge years to pass?!”

Because they may not be in charge anymore and the whole point was just to rattle the rich and have a laugh about it?

Agree this is a pathetic policy from Labour that I think the last (‘New’) Labour gov would have been shocked by. I vote Labour- they don’t care about this apparently, but they are pissing off their Gen X voters. This and failure to have any big helpful ideas for education, the wierd reluctance to admit the failure of Brexit now they have to actually work with it- just get us back into the EU as quickly as possible. Stand up for public services and the human rights Act and threats to democracy please.

Anyway on what must feel to them like an issue they’d rather forget- VAT in schools- I wonder if it is really important politically to rush it through in bulge years to mask the drops in numbers leaving private schools? Can also make and blame the additional overcrowding that may result in some state schools with ‘sorry but bulge year’. This kind of behaviour from government makes me very cynical.

Also who is monitoring closing private schools and how do they actually get reported?
It’s useful to know from press releases etc from schools who do that but do we also have sight of the whole ecosystem of small private schools that is losing diversity? Forest school, Steiner, specialist skill colleges, small minority religious schools that close..? I wonder if the local level picture is even worse than we see.

No one from government is tracking so we only have press releases and anecdotal evidence. Labour have refused to review it so the true figures will never be known. They have refused to review because they are fully award of the impact and simply don't care.

@Loveumagenta

There aren't "plenty" of school places in many years, in many areas of the country. My MP has confirmed there are no spaces in local schools for my children. The LEA have suggested there might be 1 place for 1 child at a school miles away, where less than 1 in 6 manage to pass GSCE maths and English. Having school places in Newcastle is of no use to someone living on the South Coast for example.

Thank you for answering. That’s terrible! The ONS should be monitoring this. All the universities and think tanks with an educational remit. If every school is licensed centrally or locally somewhere it’s not an impossible stats project. That is so awful the gov is not collecting this data. How do they prepare local authorities for pupil numbers coming if they don’t know?

Because they don't care! Under the new Bill they have the power to change PAN too on individual schools ie to force parents to under performing schools by reducing PAN in good schools

Home-to-school transport costs hit £2.3bn

What with thousands of ex private school kids needing state school places.. I guess this cost will rise. Wonder if Labour factored this little aspect into their complex impact analysis of imposing VAT on private school fees (and the rest).

www.localgov.co.uk/Home-to-school-transport-costs-hit-2.3bn/61519

The new bill is a very scary thing.

That is only true if they intend to make changes to the Admissions Code. Any objection to PAN is dealt with by the Schools Adjudicator. As things stand, the Admissions Code makes it clear that there is a strong presumption in favour of increasing PAN. Also, a school can admit over PAN if it wishes (unless it is a primary school and doing so would breach the infant class size limit).

However, there are other measures in the bill that, on the evidence available, are a disaster for our children's education. Bridget Phillipson appears to be pursuing an ideological agenda regardless of the evidence that it is likely to push the UK back down the international league tables. I know some of her own party are appalled that she is abandoning the previous cross party consensus on academies and hope the bill will change before it becomes law.

Actually what I have learnt from this whole fiasco primarily is that the Secretary of State for Education needs to be monitoring ALL children and that includes children in private schools. They should know how many children there are vulnerable and SEND, at all times, as well.
They simply are not acting in their best interests and it is negligent. There should be more responsibility towards these children and more monitoring of these schools, not less. The fact they think the whole sector is not their problem and these children do not matter is shocking. There should be tracking of what is going on. All children’s education matters, state school, private schools, homeschooled. The state has the same duties towards all children.