Whitehall “braced for private schools collapse” 2

[ICouldBeVioletSky]

Starting a second thread as the first one is still very busy, albeit it's veered off in a few directions...

Original article

https://www.thetimes.com/article/e6465c9e-d462-48cb-a73e-74480059a1f3?shareToken=05bf599cd4a2376fe3ce83cdce607100

It may not matter to you but it matters a lot to me that extremely bright and underprivileged children have the same access to the top tiers of educations as others with significant privilege. My own family and DC would fall into the latter category before we go down the alley of personal chips on shoulders.

The attempts to dismantle your schools (more hyperbole) matters a lot less to me because it won't actually happen.

17 indy schools announced closure since January. That is unprecedented and a direct result of lower starts/higher leavers due to VAT plus increased NI + business rates

@Kittiwakeup

"It may not matter to you but it matters a lot to me that extremely bright and underprivileged children have the same access to the top tiers of educations as others with significant privilege."

Unfortunately, the VAT policy makes this less likely now, as many private schools are reducing bursary provision, channelling it instead to existing pupils. The state system won't be improved, and underprivileged children are even less likely to be able to access great private schools. There are no winners with this policy.

Oh put down your halo, they already do.

I already know that you don’t care about the impact on our schools. Wrong type of kids for you to care about. And a strange inability to see the wider picture.

I have said many times that I am not a supporter of the policy.

These schools were on the brink of collapse anyway. If they had been viable, that would never have happened so quickly.

Another big reach. Which part did you not understand of "because it won't actually happen"?

It is a bit sloppy to dismiss all closures as inevitable. The important point isn’t which schools have closed so far (obviously those in weaker starting positions will close first as they have less room to absorb a drop in enrolment), but that the rate of closure is much much higher than normal.

as to the speed of closure, things are moving very quickly - at our school we have seen a precipitous drop in enrolment already, and it is probably the tip of the iceberg in terms of movement. If it continues like this, I don’t see the junior school being viable in a couple years time. Not a new school (couple hundred years of history) and previously very financially secure. We are attached to a senior school that offers boarding, so probably more resilient than many, but not sure if they would run the junior school at a loss. The saving grace for the junior school might be the imminent closure of other local schools - nothing official, but a number of parents from two local private primaries attended a recent meet and greet looking for options due to dwindling class sizes at their current schools. My understanding is that this has happened quite quickly such that their older child is in a normal class size but younger one is in a class so small they have to combine years. Private stand alone primaries will be the most vulnerable as generally run on tighter margins anyways.

That's fascinating. In my area in north west there seems to literally be no impact. No one mentions it. Applications up not down for Sept

No they weren't. Most indy schools run tight anyway as the margins aren't high and the triple whammy of government policy has pushed them over the edge.

Across every single independent school in the whole of the NW or just the ones you know? How many is that?

‘The US's "contextual admissions" seem to consist of "legacy" and "donor" superboosts, so no thank you, that's what it was like here 70 years ago, we've moved on.’

the financial assistance offered to students at the likes of Harvard and Yale is second to none - genuinely low income students can go for free, entirely for free. Although obvs the pathway TO getting in is much more difficult for low income students - just as here.

Well, news that a council introduces bussing. slightly hyperbolic but will be interesting to see if this annoys all people on here who think that VAT is great as it punishes all evil wealthy people but that buying a house in a good area is not gaming the system at all.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/jobs/schools-universities/radical-labour-council-class-warfare-south-coast/

Right, let's look at the bigger picture. Applying your basic economics... the private education sector will go through a period of market turmoil, then consolidate (some winners, some losers) and the end result will be a sleeker, more efficient sector structure with a smaller number of players who are competitive on the world stage.

No? Not my view either. Sometimes you need to look beyond the economics, for all children.

The Telegraph has taken one view of the consultation on redesigning Brighton’s school catchments to absorb the projected decrease of 400 secondary aged pupils in the coming years.

Here’s another:

https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/24902179.brighton-parents-calling-real-choice-schools/

And more context:

https://www.brightonandhovenews.org/2024/12/05/parents-and-campaigners-speak-out-about-school-admissions-and-catchment-changes/

Brighton is an interesting one because it is also home to Brighton College, current gold standard of private school ambition, expanding left right and centre and overseas.

If I owned a house in Brighton I would sell up and move somewhere else along the coast. It is one of those areas where house prices went up massively in a short amount of time and last time I checked, there is no capital gains tax on your house price. So I wouldn’t stand for Council shenanigans.

“Right, let's look at the bigger picture. Applying your basic economics... the private education sector will go through a period of market turmoil, then consolidate (some winners, some losers) and the end result will be a sleeker, more efficient sector structure with a smaller number of players who are competitive on the world stage.”

What actually appears to be happening is that the State will be educating most children at primary level, at their own cost going forward.

All the mergers with preps that are going on - hmm, is this a good deal for the private secondary schools and can they sell that land off at profit in the future? Is this actual now a business opportunity for some big private schools? I do not mind too much, I think better than overseas private equity buying land up on the cheap.

Ah but remember the scope and parameters of the study Araminta. Switching to state just comes under 'threat of substitution' and is quite separate from the monetised private education sector. The sector's market will contract somewhat as some customers substitute but so will capacity as the weaker players go bust. All good for market efficiency. So you are left with a smaller number of much stronger players and a core of more affluent customers (with more potential to put up prices in future). In areas where there is a concentration of wealth, you will also probably get even more wealthy international customers. Happy days.

No, me neither but I hope I've made my point about the application of basic economics to children and their lives. It's just as ridiculous when applied to widening participation as it is to VAT on education.

“In areas where there is a concentration of wealth, you will also probably get even more wealthy international customers.”

That one depends on what is happening in other countries and what they can offer these :customers” both in terms of job prospects, quality of life and educational quality. It is exactly why some Middle Eastern countries are going all out on education including Higher Education now. You need the culture/education to attract the right kind of people long term.

The international contingent doesn't have to physically be in the UK though. You can take your brand abroad as some of the bigger names are already doing.

@Kittiwakeup - and how does that help the British taxpayer? Sending one of your more successful exports abroad to set up there instead and then not attract the economic wealth that used to come with it, here anymore?

This country has benefitted hugely from its worldwide educational reputation. Countless amounts of international students were sent here, at the cost of their parents, often stayed and then contributed massively to the economy. The reason is not just because British Higher Education is the “best” objectively speaking, it is because of its reputation, originally created by the likes of Eton and similar. It all links together. I get that making the British public school even more exclusive may work, but it may also not work, at all.

I fully expect more and more universities to start setting up abroad as well and I do not know what the implications will be for us long term. Yes, on the one hand if they make money they can funnel some of the profits back to subsidise UK students. But there comes a tipping point. We saw it with eg manufacturing and offshoring internationally.
To actively start encouraging a part of your economy that is hugely successful, here brand Education, to start offshoring is really quite something.

Sure, that might be the recommendation you give a private school if they were your client.

But you didn't clarify your brief.

If your client was the UK government, what would your analysis and recommendation be to them?

Actually @strawberrybubblegum - the client analogy is pretty apt! The Government should start remembering that we, the taxpayers, are their clients and they better start delivering a return on our huge tax payments. If it means an equality return, better for society etc overall that is one form of return. But if there is ZERO return and upside, they better think again.
Otherwise, many of us do have the option to opt out or go elsewhere, where we are treated as clients.

Thank you @SabrinaThwaite - I was looking for other links.

To be honest, I am quite ambivalent with regards to this. Seems like some children may have to travel further and go to less nice schools (which could be annoying if you bought a house close to a good school) but it is all government funded education and hopefully not introduced mid year so children may have to change GCSE.