Whitehall “braced for private schools collapse” 2

[ICouldBeVioletSky]

Starting a second thread as the first one is still very busy, albeit it's veered off in a few directions...

Original article

https://www.thetimes.com/article/e6465c9e-d462-48cb-a73e-74480059a1f3?shareToken=05bf599cd4a2376fe3ce83cdce607100

how can you deny that Labour economic policies (vat, standard tex relief, NI contributions) have not played a direct role?

Did you read the school’s statement?

The school has for many years been operating at a financial loss

That is not a result of any Labour policy.

Companies House shows that the school was put into voluntary liquidation in March 2024.

ETA: the liquidation order may have been to do with being taken over by Uppingham, but it doesn’t currently have enough students to remain viable at the 2021costs level, let alone todays costs.

@SabrinaThwaite did you read the school’s statement? Labour policies clearly attributable as a factor in closing.

maybe read my previous posts with a bit more attention before replying. are there other factors contributing to closure? Yes. Would the school be viable today with a different government? Possibly.

obviously the first schools to fall will be those at the fringes of economic viability but we shouldn’t dismiss those as ‘inevitable’. Given the total lack of due diligence performed by Labour in advance of policy implementation we should be querying its impact on all school closures over coming years.

@Labraradabrador

Yes, I read the school statement.

The school wasn’t viable in 2021. It was bailed out from insolvency by another school in 2022. It’s not been viable since that bail out either, well before any changes brought in by Labour.

It’s currently operating with just over 2/3rds of the number of pupils that it needed to be economically viable in 2023 under the last government, so I’m not sure why you think it could still be viable under a different (non Labour) government.

Very good point.
I don't think Earl Spencer's book has contributed, but if even 1 person who read it then changed their mind about sending their child to board there it was in such a fragile state 1 less subscriber would make a difference.

Funnily enough 1 of my ex state schools in North Yorkshire had a pe teacher who was convicted of sexually grooming/abusing teenage girls he was known as banana man. The school is still open and flourishing. And he came out of prison to a party in his local pub and seen as one of the lads. And then at my other state secondary our form tutor was convicted of having indecent images of boys and grooming in the very late 1980s he went to prison was not greeted on release with a pub party. Double standards everywhere.
And of course Charles Spencer's abuse included a female staff member abusing him. And he had every right to write about his personal experience.

@SabrinaThwaite let’s just agree to disagree since you don’t really seem to understand the broader point and keep dragging back to the minutiae of a school neither of us have personal experience in. It is a bit tedious.

@Labraradabrador It’s not the ‘minutiae’ of one particular school - my original comment was specific to that school.

And I do understand the broader point that you’re trying to make, I just don’t happen to agree with you.

Maidwell Hall has challenged some of my assumptions that the more expensive schools are better placed to survive because there is more margin to work with. It might be that parents who would previously have used a school at the upper end of fees will manage the impact of VAT by pivoting to schools a notch or two lower in prestige. Given the move away from widespread
boarding, this is easier to do.

I've seen the average additional cost per child reported as £2k pa- I can't see how that is possible- ours is £14k pa per child (school is passing on 14%) assuming no fees increase in September- a forlorn hope given the rising costs from November 's budget. Add to that £10k pa each from reduction in bursary support and it's crippling. But we live and work in a rural area where the only avaliable state option rates as RI across the board. We have seen some movement to cheaper schools and day options- I couldn't say whether VAT is the direct cause in every case but the education we have given our boys would certainly not have been an option for us if we were starting out today- except by swapping out public sector careers for something more lucrative.

After 30 years of public sector service and no generational wealth I feel pretty beaten up by this Govt. But then most of my neighbours are farmers so I can't go sobbing to them!

Also some of the parent group will be running businesses and will have been hit in other ways as well.

I fear there's more to come on the beatings given the state of the gilt market borrowing costs and trump/musk looming...

They cannot beat further @comedia24 - that is where they went wrong in the first place! Had they not implemented that terrible budget, we would not be in this state right now with a falling stock market and currency going down again. It is all Reeves fault. They are idiots, totally unqualified for the job. Also Sunak’s fault for calling the election when he did. He should have waited another 6 months and handed over a solid economy, that is the least he owed the country. Muppets the lot of them.

Couldn't agree more - no idea why Sunak decided to go for it then - it made very little sense.

Exactly. How that leaves people who qualify for an MDS I don't know. Will the MDS cover the VAT on the course, or won't it? If it doesn't - then what? The scheme is provided for low-income families with exceptionally talented offspring, so they aren't going to be able to pay it.

Surely it was to save face on the failed Rwanda plan. It wasn't ever going to happen but now it can always be there solid policy and Starmer can be blamed for it now.

A school which is military heavy has just announced its closure
So that's 4 since 1st Jan

if I where to be in government, plan would be no VAT on fees if the school commits to
a decent set amount of scholarship places and a certain amount of bursary’s
surely that would be a more sensible way forward. to get the UK economy and industry to thrive we need bright people who are capable and well educated to support this ,long-term vision seems to be a little bit lacking at the moment with the government

of course @Mrsgreen100 because the economy can’t thrive from state school produced children eh? Jesus Christ, the snobbery on this thread

@twistyizzy a 10 second Google just led me to see at least three private schools OPENING in 2025 so looks like it’s cancelled that out

Which ones?

There are 3 academies opening, they aren't indy schools

https://www.independentschoolparent.com/featured/thomass-college-to-launch/

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/new-private-school-built-manchester-28211799.amp

https://www.soglos.com/news/business/new-109-million-independent-school-opens-in-gloucester/24454/

last one is a SEN school

There is no website etc for the Manchester one and I can't find a record on ISC site
The SEN one opened last year

The SEN one is funded by the LA through EHCPs as the named school. No mainstream or fee paying pupils

Thomas’s College replaces Thomas’s Putney Vale. I think it’s intended to be bigger, but equally there have been other contractions eg a Fulham co ed Indy is shutting its 6th form in the summer so they will likely be swooping some pupils from there.

more school closures:

https://www.schoolmanagementplus.com/bursars-finance/private-school-closures-highfield-prep-the-village-school/

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/tax/private-school-keir-starmer-constituency-close-vat-ni-raid/

legal developments:

https://www.accountancydaily.co/private-school-parents-secure-first-legal-win

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/tax/high-court-fast-tracks-legal-challenge-against-labours-vat/

Other recent articles:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14298101/Chinese-investors-private-schools-Labour-VAT-raid.html

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/bridget-phillipson-private-school-vat-b2679986.html

Not sure why the Daily Mail assumes this current Government does not welcome Chinese inward investment into private schools? I mean they literally went to China to encourage investment.
The issue is more that someone needs to check nobody can buy up private schools on the cheap for real estate value and churn a massive profit that way and leave whole communities without jobs and facilities.

Here is an old article. The Chinese love buying so called essential stuff and infrastructure including pubs. Which I guess was seen as an essential British thing in the past. They also heavily invested all over Africa. None of this is a new thing. It is how they gain influence globally.
www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/china-now-owns-ps143bn-in-uk-assets-from-nuclear-power-to-pubs-and-schools-b1841056.html

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/01/18/labour-u-turn-private-school-vat-raid-gifted-arts-students/

So if you earn under £45k household income and you have a child at somewhere like White Lodge, you don't have to pay.

Surely this cut off means that a lot of families on say £55k or £60k will decide very fast that one of them needs to go part-time or stop working?

For 4 schools. 2 music + 2 dance
The cynic in me says they have done this in light of the courts case so they can say "see we make exemptions".