Whitehall “braced for private schools collapse”

[ICouldBeVioletSky]

Whitehall ‘braced for private schools collapse’ due to fee rises

Worth reading the whole article, it’s not quite as alarmist as the headline suggests. But as you’d expect, gov sources are talking it all down while the ISC is ringing the alarm bell.

https://www.thetimes.com/article/e6465c9e-d462-48cb-a73e-74480059a1f3?shareToken=05bf599cd4a2376fe3ce83cdce607100

I’d be quite surprised if some of the schools near us don't fold tbh. There will definitely be a contraction in the sector, I just hope those that hold on can remain a viable concern.

What? I wasn’t the poster who posted about this; I merely added the link!

You need to read things a bit more carefully. Seems it’s your style to misrepresent things and get them wrong. I won’t be paying any attention to anything you post from now on — you can’t get your basic facts right @MerryMaker.

@Juliagreeneyes apologies

Bloody Nora; you need a bit more education yourself if you don’t understand how averages work. Here’s how it works: some schools charge 40k and some charge less than 10k, and everywhere in between. When you do a mean or median average you are getting a rough figure somewhere in the middle. But not all schools will charge 18k - half will be above, and half under. Yes?

People keep trying to explain to you that it won’t be the richer schools that charge 40k that go under, nor will the kids who go to them be affected. But it will affect the schools who are in the bottom range of the fee scale, and the kids who go to them. Those are the ones who will go into state and the schools will
close (and, disproportionately, day schools, small schools, and schools in the provinces). Estimated range up to 30%.

Now, what happens to an average if the bottom 30% of the range is removed? YES, that’s right: it goes UP! So after this policy is implemented, you can expect the average private school fee to be much HIGHER! Maybe up around 28k or more! So what you have done is pushed out all the less rich children and schools, and actually entrenched the privilege of the wealthier schools and children. Well done!! Just what you wanted! It’s even less diverse now — but, crucially, you’ve made the advantage of the very wealthy even more of an advantage! You haven’t got rid of Eton or SPGS; you’ve probably not raised much money compared to the economic impact of the bottom third of schools closing; you’ve put more pressure on the state sector, and actually you’ve made Eton and co. even more competitive and desirable for the rich, and given their kids even more of a gap over everyone else.

This is the dumb stuff you are all cheering for. It’s a stupid policy that is frankly asinine and counterproductive. If you think Labour’s going to raise standards in the state sector by doing this then you’re stupider than you realise.

@Juliagreeneyes the majority of pupils attend day schools with an average fee of £5,218 per term which equates to £15,655 per year. According to ISC

@Juliagreeneyes do you have to insult posters? It is unnecessary

Why don’t you read my post above about averages, which explains what happens to an average when the bottom proportion of the range is removed? Then think a bit about whether this is a policy that does what you want it to do. HTH

FFS see @Juliagreeneyes PP… this is an AVERAGE!!! Did your state school not do mean/mode/median averages in maths??

You can’t get your facts right, and several posters don’t seem to understand what an average is. Not sure you’re sending your best people to this debate, frankly.

Why don’t you ask the ISC how it calculates average fees?

It’s a weighted average btw.

And again, HTH.

"Bloody Nora; you need a bit more education yourself.."

"This is the dumb stuff you are all cheering for."

"...you’re stupider than you realise."

Just unnecessary

And just to add, if you think my maths is a bit shit then I’m going to give you a very long list of roads that you should really avoid just in case a bridge falls on your head or something.

Here is our private school extras checklist to help you clarify what added extras you may be expected to pay for with the school admissions team:
· Transportation – be it to and from school or between sporting matches or on school excursions, the fees for private school buses can be quite pricey especially when you factor in siblings.
· Meals – most private schools include the costs of meals in their termly fees, however some do not, and the fees can reach their hundreds per term. Other schools request that parents keep a meals account topped up with funds which pupils can draw on by swiping a card each day.
· Books – Not all schools require parents to stump the extra money for these vital curriculum staples, but textbooks are expensive, especially when they reach a higher secondary level.
· Uniform – All schools will require pupils to wear the correct uniform and some private schools only allow uniform to be purchased from an approved supplier. It’s worth checking on the second-hand market – many parent volunteers run excellent sales to avoid waste.
· Sports equipment – From hockey sticks and cricket bats, specialist mouthguards and protective headgear, most schools will expect pupils to be properly equipped and this will not be something that the school will fund.
· IT/Laptops – Most schools have moved to an online homework system and will expect pupils to have access to the internet and a computer or laptop to either bring to school or use at home.
· Art and DT supplies – For higher levels such as GCSE and A-Level or IBacc parents may be asked to pay for specialist paints or resources to support pupils to complete their coursework.
· Exam Fees – For most private schools, parents will have to pay fees for entrance exams, but statutory exam fees, as they progress through school, may also need to be financed.
· School Trips – From Geography trips to Iceland, skiing in Canada to drama trips to New York, field trips fees can be exorbitant and when you factor in the insurance and kit list, they can reach into their multiple thousands.
· Insurance – Usually factored into termly fees, some schools make this a separate charge so it’s worth checking in with the admissions team.
· Stationery – Some schools request that an account with funds be created for pupils to access the stationery store or tuck shop throughout the term – there are certainly ways around this, but in boarding schools, it is often a pre-requisite.
· School photos – Annual individual, sibling, sporting teams and whole school photos are part of the school calendar. Whether or not you actually like the professional photo of your little darling, they are a regular occurrence, and the bill for ordering photos will most certainly be met by the parents.
· Extra-curricular – Many private schools include extra-curricular activities in their termly fees, however attendance of some clubs such as Drama or the Model UN may be accompanied by extra costs.
· Foreign language magazines – Not all private schools will charge separately for these items, however with rising costs, it is likely that items such as these may be passed onto parents.

https://www.schoolguide.co.uk/blog/private-vs-state-hidden-costs-explained

Right - what happens to it if , say, the lower 20-30% of the fee range disappears?

If many of the schools that charge under, say, 12k-15k a year close, but Eton keeps its fees at 50k plus VAT, what happens? What happens to the fee range, and does the average go up or down?

And what effect does that have on the expected tax take from this policy, and the resulting effect on social mobility?

Not sure what your point is here, @MerryMaker . Lunch at my DD’s school is cheaper than at the local catchment school, the after-school sports activities are cheaper than the local state schools (and the state school has better sports facilities and rents them out as a private gym!)

Why don’t you go and do the calculations?

@Juliagreeneyes you can see all fees here. Those with lower fees are a small proportion, but they do exist. They tend to be religious schools established to prioritise religious wishes.

https://www.edarabia.com/england-school-fees/

Well it’s bloody obvious, isn’t it? The pupils whose parents aren’t high earners leave for the state sector; the cheaper day schools with the less well off pupils close, and disproportionately in the provinces; the expensive schools with lots of land and big endowments who charge very high fees carry on doing so, reduce bursaries for poorer home kids and probably take even more wealthy overseas kids; and the average private school fee actually goes UP!

Meanwhile the tax take is a lot less than expected (do overseas parents can pay the VAT, I wonder, or can they claim it back?), and the take is more than offset by the job losses incurred by closing schools and the increased funding pressures of the kids moving into state (especially SEN kids). And as a fabulous plus for diversity, not only are the very wealthy unaffected, but there’s suddenly an even bigger advantage their kids have over yours!

All you’re really doing is penalising the kids at the bottom end of the private school income range, who’ll then be moving into your kids’ state school and putting more pressure on your kids’ resources. Well done! 👏

If you want to tax the wealthy, or even just Eton, find a better way than this.

@Juliagreeneyes they are mainly religious schools. There is one near me. Those parents are not moving children to the state sector. The religious institution behind them may do more fundraising

@juliagreeneyes on one specific point, no, overseas parents will not be able to claim VAT back on a good/service both purchased and used in the UK. They're not exporting it.

@Juliagreeneyes totally right cheering for this nonsense will cost cars when it comes home to roost

That’s good - though I’m not sure the overseas oligarchs and billionaires will care tbh.

the expensive schools with lots of land and big endowments who charge very high fees carry on doing so, reduce bursaries for poorer home kids and probably take even more wealthy overseas kids; and the average private school fee actually goes UP

Why do you think this? Surely these schools are exactly the type of charitable foundations that were established to support the education of the poor?

All you’re really doing is penalising the kids at the bottom end of the private school income range, who’ll then be moving into your kids’ state school and putting more pressure on your kids’ resources. Well done!

Several private schools closed in my local area in the last few years. Most pupils were absorbed into other local private schools, some joined our state school, some went to other state schools. It didn’t make a huge amount of difference TBH.

From what I've seen in the press it's the small-ish religious schools with low-ish fees that are saying they're going to have to close, or have already announced their closure.
The parents may not want to send them to the state sector, but if the school closes and there's no other affordable religious school nearby, they'll either have to do that, or home educate. So Labour are bleating about the supposed woes of home education while simultaneously driving people into it.

It is not obvious.It is as yet an unknown how this will pan out. There is a scenario not that much will change at all, people will complain a bit and mostly pay up and things will go on pretty much the same as before.