Whitehall “braced for private schools collapse”

[ICouldBeVioletSky]

Whitehall ‘braced for private schools collapse’ due to fee rises

Worth reading the whole article, it’s not quite as alarmist as the headline suggests. But as you’d expect, gov sources are talking it all down while the ISC is ringing the alarm bell.

https://www.thetimes.com/article/e6465c9e-d462-48cb-a73e-74480059a1f3?shareToken=05bf599cd4a2376fe3ce83cdce607100

I’d be quite surprised if some of the schools near us don't fold tbh. There will definitely be a contraction in the sector, I just hope those that hold on can remain a viable concern.

Our local primary has gone from two form entry to one because of the birth rate. What is no one mentioning that?

Some private schools (not many) are public schools.

The birth rate now is totally irrelevant to those who have been in the private system for years. Spare capacity at reception level is of no use to a pupil in year 9 for example.

Provision during Covid varied wildly, with some state schools providing barely anything. I don’t know why no one asked how some schools coped well, and yet others were apparently incapable. Our catchment state primary provided 2 worksheets per week during lockdown. They failed to open fully when the restrictions were lifted, only getting all pupils back in the autumn following lockdown.

Exactly - the pressure for places for 16-18 is a point we'll see big moves is already being felt. There are long run birth rate reductions and then there's what will happen in the next couple of years.

We need some sort of expert commission on how to grow the economy and get people incentivised to work more - Labour's growth policy isn't working so we will face more and more taxes unless something changes, and politics will fragment further.

Overall, for a govt with such a huge majority they're bereft of big motivating inspirational ideas.

https://www.bainescutler.com/media/2umbzz1c/isc-vat-full-report-1018-for-circulation.pdf

calculates the likely drop-off over 5 years from the introduction of VAT as 25%

https://www.adamsmith.org/news/applying-vat-to-independent-school-fees-could-cost-as-much-as-16-billion

The Adam Smith institute (hardly left wing liberals) consider 15% and 25% drop-off scenarios as realistic and conclude these would result in a net cost to the taxpayer

https://www.edsk.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/EDSK-VAT-on-private-school-fees.pdf

EDSK also considers drop-off scenarios of 5% to 25%.

The problem with a lot of the calculations which suggest that only a low number of pupils will leave, is that they haven’t also considered other factors such as inflation, interest rates etc which have reduced families’ disposable income.

In our local area:
(a) numbers attending prep open days have halved
(b) every private school in the area now has vacancies for the first time ever, including the selective secondaries.
(c) one school is closing and at least two more preps are struggling for numbers and expected not to last. The selective secondaries are expected to survive, but become less (academically) selective.

The first concrete indication of the impact on numbers will be seen by schools just before Easter. A lot of people who were crossing their fingers over the summer and hoping it wouldn't come to pass have received this month their first invoice with VAT added. Most schools require a term's clear notice, so anyone intending to pull out and not be liable for fees from September will need to give notice before the Easter break.

The killer will be those who don't start which will be more than those who leave. I know three families with kids in nursery for whom VAT was the final thing that made their decision against private. They are all using the saved money to buy on the doorstep of the best state primary, so the policy is worsening equality of access to the best state schools in that way

Yes that’s basically the picture where I live. Oh and as supply staff at a big 3-18 independent school, I’m no longer getting any work.

7% receive a means tested bursary or scholarship.

https://www.pepf.co.uk/fact-finder/facts-and-figures/#:~:text=Only%201%20percent%20of%20private%20school%20pupils%20receive,from%20their%20school%20%28in%20most%20cases%29%20or%20elsewhere.

State schools are also closing due to falling. Also likely to be dwindling number of rich grandparents over time due to Brexit and Uk companies being sold overseas so their executives don't live here and decline of the state, BBC and arts also reduce numbers. So labour are not the issue. The conservatives who supported Brexit have endangered even the private schools they puportedly love.

If it really turns out a larger proportion is state educated then likely to be better for UK as future leaders based on talent not extra resources

What I find difficult to understand is that (successive) governments think that raising taxes exists in a complete vacuum and they do it again and again and the population just take it. At a certain point people say 'Fuck you'. The poster upthread who is moving abroad. My own situation where i have actual booked in meetings at schools in my home country. The parents who say screw it and scale back their hours or quit completely. Many people have agency over their own lives and are not just milking cows lowing helplessly while the government screws them over. Not only screws them over but tells them to lie back and take it, you bunch of rich bastards.

It's a stupid policy. It's fiscally irresponsible and it is short sighted. It's based on pure malicious vengefulness. For all the reasons people have posted.

What fucking contorted logic. I hate the way you people make out you are doing poor people a favour. Ditto private medicine. Put your DC in local schools and if they are so bloody great they will improve the culture of the school. Fight for better education for all. That is truly doing a service.

But 94% of children are already educated in the state system. How is a few extra per cent going to make a difference?!!

If only the BBC did reduce their numbers to zero! Completely anachronistic -look at other countries who manage their media better.

First of all state schools are also closing because of the falling birth rate.
Brexit has had a negative impact on the number of foreign born children attending British private schools. This was forecast before the Brexit vote.

In terms of British pupils, nobody cares if they go to state schools or private schools.

If some private schools close then good. There are 4 private schools within a few miles of me. One is bloody awful and deserves to close. Its ISC report identifies many basic standards not being met. I have no idea why anyone sends their children there except snobbery. One is good, but no better than a decent state school and not as good as the best ones. Two genuinely offer much better facilities - large sports grounds, swimming pools, own climbing wall and theatre type of school. They will probably continue.

Especially as numbers of children overall in state schools are falling both due to the falling birth rate and the growth in home schooling.

I meant how are a few extra per cent going to improve state schools. The answer is they won’t. This policy is just a distraction by the current Government. It will do nothing for state schools.

I don’t know one person who sends their DC to private school for snobbery reasons. There is one close to me that doesn’t have particulary high academic standards but it’s a lovely, caring, nurturing school full of kids whose needs were not met in state schools or more prestigious private schools. It’s these types of schools that will fail and anyone who celebrates that is sick.

And they are not closing in every area. A new primary has just opened in spitting distance to my DC’s school as there is huge pressure for places in that area. Across all age groups, almost all schools are full. It’s so bad that some of the schools now have a warning on their websites to parents moving to the area - thousands of new houses have been/are being built which is putting massive pressure on local services.

The ISC report is about basic standards, not academic achievement. The school is not meeting basic standards that would make it a safe and nurturing environment, although the private school grapevine may claim differently. But I would not be sending my child to any school that had been censured for not meeting safeguarding for example. And yet some parents pay highly to send their children there.
Some parents though appear to disregard any independent evidence. I know one parent who is a friend and was very upset that a Steiner school was forced to close because it did not meet very basic safeguarding requirements such as DBS checks for staff. She sent her child there and wanted to continue to, and pretty much rubbished the independent report.

As I said, I don’t know one person that sends their DC to private school for snobbery reasons. That’s your perception. I can’t comment on an individual school that I know nothing about but I am correct in saying that it’s the smaller, less prestigious schools that will fail. That is nothing to celebrate.

I don't get this argument. There has always been, and always will be, ridiculous competition and prices for houses close to the 'best' state schools. A few more well off ex-private schooling families in the mix competing against other equally well-off but ideologically committed state school only parents is not really going to affect anyone but each other.

And as far as I can see, the only impact will be that some of these (middle class professional?) families will then be forced to consider slightly less sought after schools and use their legendary sharp elbows and powers of influence to encourage these 'lesser' schools to up their game..?

It’s pretty contorted logic to expect a teenage kid moving to another school to improve the State system.
What exactly do you think they and their parents are going to do that’s any different to the vast majority of State school parents?
Also pretty insulting to imply that Sate school parents can’t fight for a better education for their kids without help.

It’s the government’s job to improve State education. Not kids, not their parents.
So what exactly are Labour going to do aside from tax a specific group of parents that is likely to result in an even poorer experience for all children?