Kent test results

[Empathy101]

There was an article in the Kent Messenger earlier in the year (March)that said private school pupils (that took the Kent test) pass rate in 2023 had dropped to 25% from 59% in 2019.
The pass rate for state school pupils (that took the test - remember not everyone takes it ) in 2023 was 45%
I dug in a bit more as there have been some freedom of information requests (FOI) and very academic prep schools (like Granville etc) were seeing less than a 3rd of pupils passing in 2023 vs almost all a few years before.
Kent test scores are standardised and there are small adjustments for age (so younger children aren’t disadvantaged) - but these results don’t make sense?
The only possible explanations are state school pupils are getting 11 plus tutors at a far greater rate than private school pupils or the standardisation of scores also adjusts for state vs private ?
Im no conspiracy theorist - but understanding a few things around statistics - this dramatic change doesn’t fit with any logical model.

Are state schools teaching to the test more? Privates might not want to lose many nowadays.

That's interesting. The only simple mechanism I can think of for such a big change would be if there were many more children sitting the kent test from private schools than were previously. 2023 entry was before VAT though so not sure why it would change so significantly.

More tutoring in state applicants is also a possibility, as you say. But why such a big change? Again if it had been the VAT year it would possibly be last-minute entries - not giving time for tutoring.

I don't think that state schools teach to the test @OccasionalHope - parents often complain about that!

The other big change since 2019 is variability of teaching between schools during covid. The change isn't the direction I'd expect though, since I'd heard that private schools generally did more than state schools during covid - but must be area-specific, so maybe not in Kent.

There was also demographic-specific variation during covid, eg parents who were furloughed were able to concentrate on education 1:1 with their child. Maybe private school parents are more likely to do the types of jobs which can be done remotely (and also lots of doctors) so not so many were furloughed. But it seems unlikely that this would be persistent enough to make such a big difference 3 years later.

Overall, it would be good to see a FOI request about numbers of children applying (in addition to the percentages who succeed) by actual school, not only school type (not all private schools are the same) and see how it's all changed.

If the numbers don't explain the change (ie if there aren't many more private school candidates than previously) it's perhaps worth a FOI to ask about how the scores are standardised, and also exactly what factors about the candidate are taken into consideration and how.

Some comments I've seen on this board would make it not entirely a surprise if previous school type was taken into consideration. That would obviously be completely unacceptable for a state education which is paid for out of everyone's taxes - especially if it's happened secretly without debate - and should certainly be publicised if it's the case.

That's interesting. The only simple mechanism I can think of for such a big change would be if there were many more children sitting the kent test from private schools than were previously. 2023 entry was before VAT though so not sure why it would change so significantly.

The VAT policy has been planned some time and the Tories losing the election was also on the cards for some time. So I can well believe a higher number than normal sat the test. Does it also give more options for an occasional space down the line (eg if a private school pupil wanted to transfer in year 9, it might be easier if they already had a good test result)

www.kentonline.co.uk/kent/news/the-astonishing-drop-in-private-school-pupils-getting-into-303104/

This link includes the number of private school applicants.
For the % to drop so significantly there has to have been a major shift (eg private moving away from 11+ teaching) enhanced tutoring or the data is incorrect. Or it's an anomaly?

Should add the numbers taking test fell, but not significantly

Thanks for linking. That really is odd. Will be interesting to see the results for this year.

Very confusing information.

It’s even more confusing when you look at the FOI request for break down by schools results.

So for 2023 (24 grammar intake) Sevenoaks private schools -

new beacon 26 took the test 5 or less passed
russell house 16 took the test 5 or less passed
st Michael’s prep 32 took the test 9 or less passed
Sevenoaks prep 15 took the test 5 or less passed

for 2022 (23 grammar intake)
new beacon 26 took the test 20 passed
Russell house 22 took the test 17 to 22 passed
st Michaels prep 38 took the test 33 to 38 passed
sevenoaks prep 22 took the test and 16-21 passed

And the same drops for all the private schools - it’s just not possible …

That is very suspicious indeed.

Who was the FOI request to?

And has there been a similar FOI request for 2024 test ('25 intake?). The results are out now, aren't they?

The market for private has been changing for a while as parents have found fees hard due to cost of living. There is a definite move to sending less able students private and more able state and using tutors. It used to be families would send thier boy or thier brightest child private but now it's more if your child is struggling a bit.

That might have a teeny influence.

Not that much difference - in one year - in multiple private schools.

www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/2019_2024_kent_test_11_data#incoming-2688714
This has more info individually.
AI suggests that boys from private outperform all other groups but I can find data to back that up.

Motorwaydiva that where I got the stats from its a FOI enquiry to Kent county council.
compare the 2024 tab (test taken in 2023) to the 2023 tab (test taken in 2022) That is exactly where my example stats of private school results came from and the dramatic drop in private/independent school passes across the board.
I will be raising a FOI request to ask if independent vs state schools are standardised/normalised in any way (ie the raw scores are adjusted down for independent school pupils)
I will also ask if independent and state school pupils sat the same test.
Those results are not statistically possible one year to the next - you don’t have independent school pupils 59% passes one year and only 25% the next year… not unless the data is wrong or there have been state vs independent adjustments to scores.
If it’s latter it will be my MP next - this needs some more digging.

It's really good you found that @Empathy101

Thanks for raising a FOI request - do please update us with what you learn.

Just in case they try to hide information by only answering exactly what you ask... maybe also ask:

Please make a spreadsheet with each of the following values broken down by year and school (as in the previous FOI):

• Name of school
• whether it is state or private
• Average raw score
• Average normalised score
• lowest raw score which resulted in a pass
• lowest normalised score which resulted in a pass
• highest raw score which resulted in a fail

• highest normalised score which resulted in a fail.

Also, in addition to that spreadsheet, please also answer:

• were any candidate characteristics taken into account when marking or when normalising test scores?
• do any candidate characteristics feed into the pass/fail outcome apart from the raw test score?
• how have the pass/fail criteria changed between the years?

My understanding is they won’t give raw scores data anymore (but I will try) They also on their website group results at a higher level by state school and everything else (so OOC, independent and others) there were only 605 private school pupils took the test in 2023 but several thousand OOC (out of country) which again make me suspicious that the data for private schools isn’t available (apart from the FOI requests)
Also my understanding is they don’t share raw scores anymore - their website states…
Any direct freedom of information (FOI) requests for more detailed breakdowns of the test results will be declined in line with the ICO’s advice. As previous reports are already in the public domain, they will remain available.

That's a pain. Maybe best then to ask exactly how the pass/fail is determined, including numerical weighting given to any candidate characteristic which feeds into the decision, and also exact details of any algorithm used to normalise or weight the test score.

I wondered whether they might be doing something weird like normalising against each school separately, rather than normalising against the whole cohort.

But I don't think so because state schools which did better than average in 2023 kept their lead, eg Lady Joanna Thornhill got 24/45 in '23 and 26/47 in '24 (most state schools got less than half in)

But all the private schools dropped to about a quarter of their previous pass level in one year.

Is it worth writing to a couple of the private schools and just asking them about it? They must be incredibly worried at the drop... and have their own ideas about what has happened!

The more I look at the data, the more inescapable the conclusion that the grammar schools have changed their criteria between 2023 and 2024 to exclude children from private schools.

That data isn’t entry to grammar schools it’s the kent test results - the data is either wrong or this is a massive scandal. It would be unacceptable social engineering and discrimination. I will also email my MP Laura Trott today .. and explain the FOI questions I am asking to Kent county council.

Sounds more like the data for those private schools is wrong for 2024 entry in the FOI.

My DC sat Kent test this year - every kid in his state primary who sat it passed it (out of county). 67% of out of county are passing (here they do not seem to differentiate between out of county state vs out of county private) but only 10 per cent are getting a place according to that article, and there are even fewer places this year because Dartford (boys) halved out of county places for top scorers.

Also I got raw scores for my DC this year from Kent County Council so they do give it to the parent themselves. It is too identifiable to publish publically maybe?

@Empathy101 - do Kent independent sit the test externally at an external test centre with the remaining out of county? Rather than in their school? That may explain mix up of data?

https://www.kent.gov.uk/__data/assets/excel_doc/0003/171606/Report-of-Kent-Test-scores-2024.xlsx

You see here the OOC, Kent independent and Miscellaneous are together. Miscellaneous could be homeschooled or school not declared. Some people in a private school that goes to 13 may not be telling their school their child is sitting the Kent test.

I really cannot see how KentCC could possibly adjust raw scores based on state vs private because it would also then leave questions open like whether an outstanding state should be judged differently than a requires improvement vs how to treat homeschooling. As far as I know, they only adjust based on age and obviously some kids get extra time.

Why not just email Kent County Council and ask. They got back to me pretty quickly with raw scores (few days).

No - Kent indies sit the test at their own school on the Thursday, same as the state primaries

This looks very odd - the drop for Somerhill is astonishing.