Will VAT on private school fees lead to a partial collapse of the sector?

[mids2019]

Will VAT on school fees coupled with cost of living drive a lot of parents from the private sector or will the majority absorb the cost? Are the numbers that potentially end up in the public sector going to offset any gains to the treasury through VAT?

Labour are working at about 4-5% transfer rate to the public sector but is this an underestimate?

Those parents feel that they are being ignored. No one is listening. It’s a way of protesting against this ridiculous policy. There are not lots “plotting”. There are a few. Many more are applying because they may genuinely need those places.

It is an optional tax in that everyone is entitled to a state place so some parents who could afford it will choose not to pay up, but go state. And they are perfectly entitled to do that?
It’s quite a vindictive tax so I would expect some private parents to feel emotional about it and vote with their feet. All entirely predictable.
It is far cheaper to tutor and bung money into a junior ISA for the kids uni/house deposit so once a Government has a manifesto policy to encourage people to do that, I think they just do it. Once you also look at the fact that state school (plus tutor that nobody can prove) may also lead to better uni places, you have literally opened the floodgates.
However, the Tony Benn movement wants everyone in comps or state so the end result (although poorer state finances) is what they actually wanted? Never mind the grounds staff and cleaners and job creation private schools do and SEN kids etc especially in the most deprived communities.

They are only being ignored by democracy - most of the country are far more worried about extreme child poverty, lack of social housing, a rapidly crumbling NHS, than they are about a tiny minority paying a couple more thousand pounds a year towards elite education, and they voted that way.
We now need to work together to get great state schools that suit all children, but swamping the state allocation system is only going to hold that back.
I am against the VAT idea, I think business rates charged to Indies would have been better, but I am horrified that parents will take such shameful methods which will only make things harder for state schools trying to get things right.

@Oakandashsplash - Surrey is a rich middle class area with no grammars and lots of private schools. In theory, those parents can all send their kids to comps and the kids will do well. So if lots go state that is a good thing?! Maybe a small minority are doing bogus applications or maybe they are moving state en masse because they have realised that they will actually be fine in state with home support and or tutoring? So the Government will have to just build some more state schools in Surrey. Or maybe they want grammars back like Bucks/Kent? Who knows?

Taxing school fees is going to make no difference to the problems you highlighted.

and they voted that way.

Only one in three voters voted for Labour, the party proposing VAT on fees.

swamping the state allocation system is only going to hold that back.

Many of those parents will need state places. Many of us have been trying to point that implementing a tax policiy which encourages more children into the struggling state system isn’t the most sensible of ideas.

Do we know that? I have seen it suggested on a couple of different discussion platforms only to be overwhelmingly vetoed by the group because if you spend more than 30 seconds thinking about it you realise it doesn’t make a lot of sense as a tactic.

you seem to be drawing conclusions that suit your own narrative. You are so certain that private school parents would never move their children that you have to craft an absurd conspiracy theory when counter evidence emerges.

Tiffin, Tiffin Girls and Nonsuch are all Surrey grammar schools.

Did you see the newspaper articles they referenced? What is your narrative that you don't want to believe that this is happening?

"Tiffin, Tiffin Girls and Nonsuch are all Surrey grammar schools."

These are actually London borough schools (Kingston and Sutton)

That tactic would be as popular with the public as Just Stop Oil.

Yes I think the superselectives in the London Borough/technically old Surrey postcode can be a bit confusing.

Surrey is a non grammar county with an otherwise mainly pro grammar demographic. Will be interesting to see how it all works itself out!

There have been an increase in state applications. No one is disputing that. Do we know that they are all parents who have no plans to move to state though, or could they possibly be those who are genuinely considering moving?

With a KT postcode and totally accessible to Surrey children - which is the salient point.

Some will need places but the scale suggests that there are many who won't and are driven by something else. Why don't you wish to believe that?

The point is that these schools are accessible to Surrey children. Many children in Surrey sit for them alongside indepependent schools.

The majority of applications are probably going to be from parents who were considering private but could only just afford it before the VAT increase, and families for whom the benefits of going private feel more marginal. Knowing that lots of families like them will also be sending their child to the local comp is enough for some to feel confident about using state schools.

i have been in the WhatsApp groups (among other forums) where it was proposed - it went down like a lead balloon. I am sure there are a small, foolish handful who will do it anyways, but that doesn’t make it widespread.

most of these enquiries and applications are likely legit. If you are the least bit worried about your ability to afford the tax, or your schools ability to weather dropping enrolment, then it makes sense to look at your options (make an enquiry). If you live in an area like Surrey where local schools could not accommodate a big influx then you are feeling even more pressure to make a move. If you are going to have to move you want to be first in the queue not last.

the scale suggests

or perhaps the scale suggests that there are many who will need to switch to state, despite what proponents of the policy say about private school parents just being willing or able to withstand a 20% hike in fees.

It’s not a case of being willing, or not, to believe that. Why are people not wishing to believe that many parents will be choosing to switch? Anecdotally, I don’t know anyone who has applied to state who isn’t genuinely considering the switch.

Many parents who woukd previously have sent DC at Yr 7/9 are now re-considering and choosing state, also for 6th form. This was a predictable outcome and something we have been saying for 18 months+! Did people honestly believe Labour when they spuriously claimed that Indy parents would just suck it up?
Of course state school applications would increase.

Exactly that. A local prep school has seen a large increase in applications, and uptake, to the state sector over the last couple of years, partly because of the cost of living, but largely because of the threat of VAT. Families would prefer stability for 7 years so are now looking to switch at 11 rather than starting down the private route and having to switch in a couple of years. Labour have made it quite clear that they will impose the VAT. It’s not a “maybe”.

“The point is that these schools are accessible to Surrey children. Many children in Surrey sit for them alongside indepependent schools.”

The demographic in the superselectives has for a number of years been mainly Asian parents (lots of Indian families) whilst white middle class parents were paying up for private schools for balance/extra curricular. Might change again?

Shame on those who are taxing education

It will be interesting to see how many actually do move over the next year or two. That will give a much more complete picture. I grew up in Surrey and have many friends there with kids in independents. None of them is shifting and they all say that they know very few who are.

You'll need to look at the effects over the next 5-10 years - many will lumber on for a bit until a certain stage, others will start later etc.

The timeline for implementing this is still unclear, so is the exact amount being passed on etc.

Surrey is not representative of the entire country. It’s the wealthiest county in the UK. The picture is very different in other areas of the country.