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Original poster

Falling pupil numbers into the next decade: impacts, thoughts?

120 replies

greenteafiend · 13/03/2023 00:54

(Apologies if there is already a thread about this)

The number of births in the UK seems to be on a gentle decline which started from about 2009 (as the financial crisis hit) and never really recovered. I think this is likely to continue, as all the trends causing people to reduce/delay kids seem to be ongoing, and immigrants increasingly seem to adopt similar fertility patterns to locals quite quickly these days (as opposed to a couple of decades ago, when foreign-born mothers seemed to have a lot more kids than local-born mothers). We've just had a "bulge year" for secondary intake, but it's likely that secondary numbers will start to go down quite soon.

There is no dramatic falloff across the whole of the UK, but I am guessing that the fall will be uneven, with some areas seeing steady or slightly-increasing numbers of kids entering school, while a few areas see significant falls.

I'm wondering what people in some areas are starting to see already, and what impacts this could potentially have in term of school choice, funding, the level of demand for private or selective schools, and possibly even mergers/closures in certain areas.

OP posts:
gnarlynarwhal · 18/12/2023 02:12

Theres supposed to be a housing crisis and yet we are hearing that the birth rate and population is declining. It can’t be both so which is it?

CurlsnSunshinetime4tea · 18/12/2023 03:51

@gnarlynarwhal once those born in the 50’s and 80’’s have passed. It’s a ways away 60yrs roughly.

Stopsnowing · 18/12/2023 04:59

They need to change the funding formula so it is not per pupil given that overheads and management costs are the same.

soffa · 18/12/2023 05:32

We can get more people to pay tax via judicious immigration

Because immigration is super popular…

soffa · 18/12/2023 05:34

Theres supposed to be a housing crisis and yet we are hearing that the birth rate and population is declining. It can’t be both so which is it?

There is a housing crisis & birth rates are below replacement level. I’m not sure why would cancel out the other?

soffa · 18/12/2023 05:35

one would.

PettsWoodParadise · 18/12/2023 06:44

soffa · 18/12/2023 05:34

Theres supposed to be a housing crisis and yet we are hearing that the birth rate and population is declining. It can’t be both so which is it?

There is a housing crisis & birth rates are below replacement level. I’m not sure why would cancel out the other?

Falling birth rate but high net immigration keeps the pressure on housing. The immigration is often not young people who go onto have families in the U.K., yes some, but not the majority (adult males with families back home; students bringing elderly parents etc)

soffa · 18/12/2023 07:09

I didn’t say immigration didn’t put pressure on infrastructure. I only said there is a housing crisis & falling birth rates…

manontroppo · 18/12/2023 07:25

Household size is declining, which means we need more houses for fewer people. The housing crisis is in part driven by affordability and a lack of appropriate houses in the right places.

DragonMama3 · 18/12/2023 08:04

CurlsnSunshinetime4tea · 18/12/2023 01:55

the "great wealth transfer" will surely come into play and the government will take advantage of that.

Lol @ that - inheritance tax

DragonMama3 · 18/12/2023 08:12

PettsWoodParadise · 18/12/2023 06:44

Falling birth rate but high net immigration keeps the pressure on housing. The immigration is often not young people who go onto have families in the U.K., yes some, but not the majority (adult males with families back home; students bringing elderly parents etc)

Show quote history

but high net immigration won't help with low birth rates

Angrycat2768 · 18/12/2023 08:13

manontroppo · 18/12/2023 07:25

Household size is declining, which means we need more houses for fewer people. The housing crisis is in part driven by affordability and a lack of appropriate houses in the right places.

Also second homes and people buying up property as ' investments' and foreign investors using flats in London as gold bars. The government could do something about all of that but won't because of £££

PettsWoodParadise · 18/12/2023 09:00

DragonMama3 · 18/12/2023 08:12

but high net immigration won't help with low birth rates

Show quote history

Yes that was the point I was trying to make.

manontroppo · 18/12/2023 09:34

The other problem with closing schools is if you think that LA transport budgets for schools are horrific now, wait until you have to transport 100 primary school kids to another primary twice a day because you've closed the village primary. Combined with the traffic chaos that will cause....

TizerorFizz · 18/12/2023 09:38

@Angrycat2768 The homes owned by foreign investors aren’t often 2 bed housing association flats! We do still live in a country that needs investment and we also are not in the business of telling people how to spend their money or not be allowed to keep a family home after grandparents die because it’s then a second home. People should be allowed choice. As they are nearly everywhere else!

We are a country that has welcomed immigration and historically the birth rate has been enhanced by immigrants. We have 15% immigrants in the uk but 28.7% of babies are born to mums who were not born here.

Angrycat2768 · 18/12/2023 16:09

TizerorFizz · 18/12/2023 09:38

@Angrycat2768 The homes owned by foreign investors aren’t often 2 bed housing association flats! We do still live in a country that needs investment and we also are not in the business of telling people how to spend their money or not be allowed to keep a family home after grandparents die because it’s then a second home. People should be allowed choice. As they are nearly everywhere else!

We are a country that has welcomed immigration and historically the birth rate has been enhanced by immigrants. We have 15% immigrants in the uk but 28.7% of babies are born to mums who were not born here.

Thecstatistics for immigrants and I think also the 28% only applies to London. And the immigrant communities tend to be younger and of childbearing age. The UK population is generally skewed towards the elderly. I'm not saying immigration has nothing to do with this, but it is a side effect of poor policy by government. Including lack of funding by government for Universities and the immigration services, which means people go years, have families, disappear into the Black economy before their claim is taken.

TizerorFizz · 18/12/2023 17:32

No it doesn’t. In fact for 2022 the ONS says it’s 30.3%.

DragonMama3 · 18/12/2023 21:34

@PettsWoodParadise babies don't tend to rent or buy housing.

PettsWoodParadise · 18/12/2023 23:21

DragonMama3 · 18/12/2023 21:34

@PettsWoodParadise babies don't tend to rent or buy housing.

Yes which is why I pointed out that most of the immigration is not from those having babies and they leave before they have babies or being in older dependents etc, so the birthrate remains low despite immigration up. So still upward pressure on housing and birthrate still downward.

TizerorFizz · 19/12/2023 10:02

Except mums not born here had 30.3% of babies in 2022. That’s a huge percentage. We don’t know how long they stay here.

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