Falling pupil numbers into the next decade: impacts, thoughts?

[greenteafiend]

(Apologies if there is already a thread about this)

The number of births in the UK seems to be on a gentle decline which started from about 2009 (as the financial crisis hit) and never really recovered. I think this is likely to continue, as all the trends causing people to reduce/delay kids seem to be ongoing, and immigrants increasingly seem to adopt similar fertility patterns to locals quite quickly these days (as opposed to a couple of decades ago, when foreign-born mothers seemed to have a lot more kids than local-born mothers). We've just had a "bulge year" for secondary intake, but it's likely that secondary numbers will start to go down quite soon.

There is no dramatic falloff across the whole of the UK, but I am guessing that the fall will be uneven, with some areas seeing steady or slightly-increasing numbers of kids entering school, while a few areas see significant falls.

I'm wondering what people in some areas are starting to see already, and what impacts this could potentially have in term of school choice, funding, the level of demand for private or selective schools, and possibly even mergers/closures in certain areas.

Locally we have several senior schools, previously rated as 'good' or outstanding that have been downgraded to inadequate. Hopefully a drop in numbers will allow the schools to reduce in size and give the management time to sort out all the issues.

Quality of state education has plummeted in the last few years. Smaller intakes will hopefully provide an opportunity to regroup

Our local independents are all busy, and as long as we avoid recession, I don't think that will change.

Mint, smaller intakes means less funding so fewer staff to lead and teach. This is felt fairly rapidly; the workload remains roughly the same whether you have 1700 pupils or 700: all leadership areas need to be covered irrespective of numbers, and school leadership is pretty hefty on the graft and hours. Staff get overloaded as there are fewer colleagues to share the load, and one starts to need to take on multiple additional responsibilities and leadership roles, as well as one's regular teaching commitments.
My city school has suffered a sharp drop in numbers following a post-Brexit exodus and the acquisition of city centre property by the university, pushing families who previously could afford to live centrally out of the centre. As a staff, we're on our knees, as fewer pupils has led to reduced funding and redundancies for staff.

Funding in England and Wales is mostly by no. of pupils, right?

I guess some schools might eventually have to merge, to ensure all the necessary facilities, curriculum etc can be provided.

Tricky situation. Universities can try to attract more international students (when the numbers of 18yos eventually start to decline), but schools don't exactly have that option, with the exception of private boarding schools.

www.theguardian.com/education/2022/jul/14/pupil-numbers-in-england-set-to-shrink-by-near-1m-in-10-years Bloody hell, 12% decline in 10 years? That is a lot more than I thought.

All our local Primaries have had falling roll for a number of years. We had a bulge year and that is now working its way through Secondary. Some schools are clinging on, but not sure for how long.

Even with new housing not seeing any substantial impact on numbers.

Having an horrendous impact on funding (which is dreadful anyway)

In an inner London borough where I work, there are around 10 primary schools earmarked for potential closure. Some will almost definitely shut in July. Those pupils will have to be spread around other local primaries.

Every local authority has a school place planning strategy which you should be able to find on their website. Ours was refreshed recently. There has been a reduced birth rate and so reduced numbers in primaries. Some of the bulge classes and "permanent" additional forms of entry that were added in previous years have been scaled back. However there is a steady flow of inward migration from countries like Hong Kong, Ukraine and Afghanistan, and also big home building projects and targets, so it's not expected to be a continued decline - more just the end of a temporary bulge. Our schools are all good or outstanding, so its an attractive area for people to move to, and we also get lots of cross-border applications. But I think areas where many schools are in the RI or inadequate category will be more adversely impacted by the current population trends.

There has been at least one closure of a private school, which the school put down to the cost of living crisis and the risk of a future Labour Government removing tax breaks. They didn't blame competion from outstanding state schools, but probably should have done if they were being honest - in the past, many local parents only sent their kids private because they couldn't get places at the (previously) very oversubscribed state schools.

I think a lot of strategic planning has to be done on a local level, which it generally isn't I have been teaching since she he early 2000s. In about 2005/6 two local secondaries were knocked down and primaries had to reduce classes because of falling rolls. Then numbers increased and they had to rebuild the two schools that were knocked down and build new primary schools. I guess if we are on a longer-term downward trend then it will cause issues but that will vary regionally.

I work in a one-form entry primary and small primaries are always the most vulnerable to falling rolls so I do keep in mind that I might not be able to finish my days there.

Anecdotally...
My eldest is in Yr7, younger is in Yr5. Due to DHs job, moved several times.

DD2 has always got into a school straight away. Ways vacancies in her year group. DD1 its always been a struggle. Her secondary school took a bulge class last year to accommodate all children living in catchment.

Further down the primary school... there's vacancies in the nursery, reception and Year 1. Despite a lot of new housing.

They're still building primaries near me (3 being built) to cope with demand.

Massive demand in my area. New primaries being built along with thousands of houses. Lots of immigration especially from Hong Kong. Our secondary has increased by 300 children in last 4 years and all the others locally are full to bursting too.

Generally internal migration has been from rural areas to urban areas so (as you said) it won't be a balanced picture.

I don't know if Covid has made a difference though as people wanted more space, could that help the rural schools?

Rural here - local primary has rising numbers currently after a falling roll. A lot of work has been put into making it an excellent school but that does come with its own issues.

But surrounding villages have schools with falling numbers. One village school is due to close which is causing furore. But in reality there are no children that live in that village and everyone travels in (and there are other schools with places). It costs a lot more to run (approx 35% more per pupil) and its impacting the education that can be delivered. It's a numbers game but I get its an emotional subject

One form entry primary roll gone down by thirty or so pupils an exodus of p6s to private schools means the 5/6 class is now mixed.

I work in a London Borough and we have shut one class year 1 and reception already. This is almost completely a permanent decision as its hard to get the numbers to open that class in later years. We think that future years will be the same, turning the school from a 6 form school to a 5 form.
This could mean redundancy if staff don't leave on their own accord as schools are funded by number of children on roll, not by number of potential classes.

Many of our rural Primaries have only 2 classes, KS1 and KS2.

Our local primary is struggling. Closed the nursery and made redundancies.
Years Reception through to 6 are now in 3 classes. I think it's just about sustainable but the Head is teaching part time and admin is part time only. It would be a terrible thing for the village for it to close.

It won’t be felt evenly across the country or even within areas. In the city where I live the primary intake is still enormously oversubscribed in some areas, usually near to where a lot of new housing has been built, but undersubscribed in others. So the situation will have to be managed to create more capacity in some schools and reduce it in others.

In the new housing developments in our areas the average age of the buyers is usually early 60s, so not bringing additional children to the Primary schools

There’s a huge need for special schools so plenty of opportunity there to repurpose a school.

@Karwomannghia there’s a huge need but no funding. It costs a lot more to fund a special school

podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-jordan-b-peterson-podcast/id1184022695?i=1000603468921

Really interesting podcast on this topic - population decline

I seem to recall that year 9 is where our bulge year are currently, and since their cohort started school, numbers locally have fallen. The primary I was governor at went from 3 classes per year to 2, with the redundancies that went with that. I think they're now getting by on slightly smaller class sizes by using any catch-up money to keep staff despite declining numbers. And the parents back this - so much evidence to show smaller class sizes are effective in improving learning, so it's a good use of the money. It won't last for ever though! There were also a number of children from Ukraine who have started in the last year, the school had space for them. At some point, if numbers don't start to increase again, it will be reducing class sizes even more, redundancies and I imagine having to get rid of parts of the school? It's a big school and costs lots of money in maintenance alone.

I live in an area where birth rates are falling. The impact is felt already at the infant school end. What we have seen is schools struggling with classes that arent full but also too many pupils to put in 1, 2 or 3 clases due to the infant class size cap. Classes used to break even with 24 pupils, but funding is so tight now you really need 28-9 pupils to keep the books balanced and even thats tight.
Lots of schools are reducing their PAN (published admission number) to try and manage the danger of having 3 classes of 24 instead of of 2 classes of 60. I suppose this affects parental choice a bit. It also means you have some very small schools appearing and these just arent viable. There are things they can do like mixed year group teaching, share head teachers, business managers, sencos etc but some will just close.

I think a very likely scenario is lifing the infant class size cap to 35 or not having one. The next key stage doesnt have a cap. My son has bern taught in classes of 38 and 42 previously due to half full classes, budget issues and recruitment issues. My MP said the school was doing really well to think of solutions.