The market is quite simply polarising. Covid is speeding up processes already underway. The basic trend is that a number of typically smaller schools (often Preps but not always) and especially those outside the south-east have been closing/merging and will continue to do so, whilst parts of the market (mostly larger, mixed and pretty selective in areas with lots of high earners) are doing well and consolidating their position in the market.
There have been too many small schools for too long. As people say, fees have gone up lots and also many state schools have improved. Outside of the south east and even within it, lots of smaller Preps just aren’t big enough to have the numbers to be able to then invest in their buildings and offer the specialist teaching and range of activities that people expect. Some of these keep going but lots look very tatty now because they haven’t been able to invest for years. Some have struggled as more senior schools have abandoned 13+ entry and there have been and will be lots more mergers of the small, family owned type Preps. The other schools which have seen mergers are girls schools. There clearly is still a market for girls schools but it’s smaller than it once was and again girls schools are often smaller and that makes it harder to survive.
In many areas outside the south east, lots of schools really are struggling. They have entrance exams to make themselves look selective and desirable, but many turn very few away. Many have their finances very finely balanced and that difference if 10 admissions can make a real difference. The question becomes what are people paying for. Some want academic selection, but in many areas outside the south east there really is a pretty wide range of ability as there just aren’t enough applicants to make those schools really selective. Some want social selection and extra curricular and ensuring their children learn with the right kind of children is more important than academic prowess. In reality those, most want at least a good level of academic success, especially if the fees are a stretch.
Big names in terms of academic success or the few who are genuinely well known without this seem to be doing well. London day schools have loads of applicants, but given many apply to 5 schools, it’s hard to always tell if they are as over-subscribed as they first look, when each child can only attend one school. But LOndon and the southeast have more high earning families to apply to the schools and this allows the schools to continue with a decent number of 800+ which can give them the cost advantages that smaller schools just cannot gain. These schools are often adding international schools or Prep schools to their ‘group’ and shoring up their positions. They are ensuring they have feeder schools which help fill senior places especially in hard times, plus international schools can also cross-subsidise after they are well established. So these schools are growing and becoming stronger and often more desirable against a backdrop of others struggling and dropping out or merging. It’s a typical competitive market where at the moment there are too many players and too many small players.
Boarding schools, especially the less academic and single sex and more rural will probably find the next few years hard. Covid has put paid to some of their international students for a while, plus the fees have meant more and more actually have pretty limited boarding and more day pupils now.
Signs of schools struggling are things like delapidated buildings, overly generous bursaries or scholarships to draw people in, leaving the teacher pension scheme (always check this as a a parent as schools which leave the scheme will struggle to recruit the top teachers without this very significant aspect of a teacher’s salary package) and year groups (often 6th Form) which are just very small and will make offering a full academic curriculum and decent sized classes hard. Small classes are good but they can be too small...you want your child to learn alongside a group of perhaps 6-8 at least to ensure good group discussion and a chance to bounce off each other. Lots of schools struggle to get classes of more than 2 in some subjects...clearly not very financially viable, never mind the learning implications.
Some people keep paying for the struggling schools. It’s for a variety of reasons. In smaller Preps there are often those who join mid-way through with SEN who have been a bit disenchanted with state provision or who feel their child needs a smaller, more nurturing environment. Often those people hadn’t intended to pay fees and don’t intend to into the senior phase. Others take the view that any fee paying schools is better than a state school. Totally working of course and so many people report amazing state primaries or Comps or Grammars which far exceed what lots of independents do...but these aren’t always easy to get into.
My projections for the next 10-15 years are that more and more Preps will drop running to 13 and just a small number who feed the 13+ boarding schools will remain. Small family Preps will merge and sometimes merge again or be taken over by senior schools and absorbed to become their junior schools. Some will simply close. A number of girls schools will close or merge. Fee increases will continue around the 3% mark and not return to the 8-10% seen about 10 years ago. Demand will remain high in London and the southeast with there being space for highly selective schools and also those not quite so selective as the market remains large, but even here some smaller Preps and girls schools could be in danger.