Is demand for private schools falling in the long term?

[angrysquirrel73]

I am wondering whether the market for private education has shrunk since the 70s when I was child. I am guessing it has given the number of schools that have closed. I'm thinking that housing is now more expensive and people spend more on housing and extensions etc and have less to spend on private education?

I went to an all girls private school and since then the local private boys school also takes girls and my old school is not as academically selective as it was and does not do as well in the exams as it does.

I now also see this at my children's school. At the junior school it is academically non selective and there seems to be more emphasis on extra curricular than academics. Many parents seem more interested in extra curricular than academics. The local boys public school is now co-ed and I get the impression all of these schools are struggling to get 'bums on seats'.

We are outside of London and the home counties... I'm guessing its a different story in London...

There a have been quite a few closures or amalgamations of private schools where I live, including the one I went to, since I was at school (20 years ago).
The reasons in this area are farming doesn’t pay enough, boarding is not existent and the state schools are very good. I can’t afford school fees but I can afford to live in the catchment of good schools and top up with tutoring. I’ve also got flexible employment so I can drive to an out of catchment school.

candlemasbells

What area of the UK do you live in? It looks like as schools in certain areas are merging, others are springing up

The schools round here are in high demand. If I could afford it, I'd jump at the chance as class sizes are v high in state and teachers seem to aim to the bottom/middle of the class, so brighter kids are given the odd extension activity, but aren't really challenged at their level.

As these schools admit any rich kid regardless of intelligence/ academia standards have slipped. They don't have the prestige they used to. Many just focus on extra curricular activities to get parents to pay 💰

Interestingly, it seems that private education has become more popular in the US along with homeschooling, but I think this has to do with "issues" in the US public (=state) education.

In England (I'm leavin Scotland etc out of this as they are quite different), we've had many years of a conservative administration, and while their educational record is a very mixed bag in many ways, it does seem like the private/state gap is a lot smaller than it was a generation ago. Things like the movement for proper synthetic phonics, a pushier approach in maths, tighter discipline, a more knowledge-rich/traditional approach to other subjects.

For parents with a certain amount of income, buying property near a good state school probably makes more financial sense.

I think house prives makes a huge difference. A teacher friend bought in Winchester straight out of uni 20 years ago. Now that income wouldn't even touch the sides of a house in my run down out of winchester area ..!

@chalktheblockwithglitterchalk

As these schools admit any rich kid regardless of intelligence/ academia standards have slipped. They don't have the prestige they used to. Many just focus on extra curricular activities to get parents to pay 💰

I don't know how true this is because anything I look at the League tables, Independent schools dominate it.

A certain level of Academics is expected in any half decent Independent school.

@Kokeshi123

Interestingly, it seems that private education has become more popular in the US along with homeschooling, but I think this has to do with "issues" in the US public (=state) education.

In England (I'm leavin Scotland etc out of this as they are quite different), we've had many years of a conservative administration, and while their educational record is a very mixed bag in many ways, it does seem like the private/state gap is a lot smaller than it was a generation ago. Things like the movement for proper synthetic phonics, a pushier approach in maths, tighter discipline, a more knowledge-rich/traditional approach to other subjects.

For parents with a certain amount of income, buying property near a good state school probably makes more financial sense.

I agree academic achievements between the two sectors in certain areas in the country is narrowing. In some areas though it is widening.

For the second part I think that depends on the area. In some areas, paying Indie school fees might actually work out cheaper in the Long run depending on the amount of Kids you have. I should also add that a House close to an "Excellent School" will demand a higher premium than one close to merely a "Good School" so it comes down to how fussy of a parent you are.

@Elij00 we were fussy parents once upon a time sending our dc to an ofsted outstanding, but just before our dc started it became “only” good. Tbh I don’t set a lot of store by outstanding/good nowadays having seen the experience of friends and their kids in a wide range of schools, some good and some not much so and the reality being pretty much unrelated to their alleged strengths according to the Ofsted report.

Indie schools locally have closed over the last 4 years - one small one, a big one which was girls only and a big co-Ed. I think the reasons were different for all of them. From friends’ schools I hear the intakes in years below year 5 in preps locally are getting smaller, which is presumably a mix of the demographics - smaller birth years and economic concerns around Brexit and now covid etc.

I personally don’t think there’s much point paying for private at prep unless you live in an area with very poor options in state.

Vague overview:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independent_school_(United_Kingdom)

ONS claims 6.9% children 5-16 are in private, 18% over 16s.

Fees are insane compared to 1970s- mid1990s. In early 1990s my PIL in law were paying per year for dh what we pay for one term for DS1. I don’t really understand why this is, but don’t claim economics to be my strength! I do know that when I was at school in 80s-mid 90s, doctors on nhs salaries could easily afford private schools, whereas now they can’t!

Locally to us we have a large number of private schools and they are highly in demand, not being full is unusual. We are in a supposedly well off area though.

afaik the proportion of kids educated privately has been very steady over a number of decades, albeit with a slight trend towards fewer and larger private schools.

The last set of figures suggested a 1% downturn in children at fee paying schools. Interesting to see in a years time after the recent press coverage of bullying and sexual harassment cultures in some of the top schools.

www.tes.com/news/private-school-funds-shot-pieces-mergers-expected

I don't know how true this is because anything I look at the League tables, Independent schools dominate it.

True, but bear in mind that it is not really a like-with-like comparison.

If you compare the results of most ISs with the results of kids in state schools who have supportive parents and are in the higher sets (ie, similar kinds of parents and backgrounds), the difference is likely to be minimum for "most" ISs.

There will be exceptions, of course, like some London ISs which are heavily selective and teach a very tough and fast-paced curriculum.

@Kokeshi123

I don't know how true this is because anything I look at the League tables, Independent schools dominate it.

True, but bear in mind that it is not really a like-with-like comparison.

If you compare the results of most ISs with the results of kids in state schools who have supportive parents and are in the higher sets (ie, similar kinds of parents and backgrounds), the difference is likely to be minimum for "most" ISs.

There will be exceptions, of course, like some London ISs which are heavily selective and teach a very tough and fast-paced curriculum.

I absolutely agree with all of this. I was simply replying to the poster who said standards in the Independent sector seems to be slipping. That I don't believe.

Imo the narrowing of the gap(in certain regions at least) has more to do with the State Sector getting better than the Indies getting worse. The Indies are still getting outstanding results countrywide.

It's very hard to see the benefit of the private schools that are local to me. Their results are ok, but given the selective nature of their intake and the supportive nature of the parent body, they should be much better than they are. Extracurricular stuff is good, but better options are available in the local community for a fraction of the price. Some parents might think that they are buying a better peer group, but the recurrent drug and bullying problems suggest otherwise.

Class sizes are smaller, it is true. There are a couple of subject options that aren't offered by the local state schools (mainly a wider range of languages). However, I can't see that parents are going to continue paying extortionate fees every year just so that their kids can learn German or whatever. The value that these schools offer simply isn't enough to justify the investment.

[quote Foxhasbigsocks]@Elij00 we were fussy parents once upon a time sending our dc to an ofsted outstanding, but just before our dc started it became “only” good. Tbh I don’t set a lot of store by outstanding/good nowadays having seen the experience of friends and their kids in a wide range of schools, some good and some not much so and the reality being pretty much unrelated to their alleged strengths according to the Ofsted report.

Indie schools locally have closed over the last 4 years - one small one, a big one which was girls only and a big co-Ed. I think the reasons were different for all of them. From friends’ schools I hear the intakes in years below year 5 in preps locally are getting smaller, which is presumably a mix of the demographics - smaller birth years and economic concerns around Brexit and now covid etc.

I personally don’t think there’s much point paying for private at prep unless you live in an area with very poor options in state.[/quote]
I agree parents should not choose schools for their dcs based solely on ofsted reports alone however reality is often quite different. The demand for schools rated as outstanding compared to those merely rated as good shows Parents do indeed place huge values on ofsted reports. This is such a big shame as imo it is the kids and their parents that make the school not the other way around.

It also seems many people agree with your line of thinking of not seeing the point paying for prep schools. Stats show a positive correlation when we compare the age of the student to the demand for private education.

I think top tier private schools have the same demand as largely they serve the super elite. The mid or low tier ones are struggling, we have had a few near us close lately and having taught in one recently, the finances were on a knife's edge. From an insider's point of view I would not send my DC to a non selective, small indie. Partly because I dont think they are worth it but also because I am conscious that I will likely be partly funding my DC well into their university years and early adulthood. University is a huge expense now compared to the 70s and 80s, and I dont think that many people can sustain financial support all the way through private school, uni and beyond.

I've taught in private and state secondaries and am 100% sure that my (well supported at home) DC will have a good education via a good local state school.

I think independent schools are in long term decline.
-They have become more expensive than ever compared to incomes
-They are less effective at helping children get into Oxbridge than they used to be
-They rely more and more on foreign students

With a much smaller range of British society being able to send their children to private schools than there used to be, there is less broad support for them. People who perhaps went to private schools themselves and now cannot afford to send their own children are often very critical of private schools. In the past they would have simply sent their children private as their parents had done for them, now they are disenfranchised critics.

Twenty years ago, private schools made a poor choice to raise fees exponentially and depend upon a foreign super elite to fill their halls. The traditional middle class supporters now resent them because their own children cannot afford to go. And these people are articulate, smart and entitled.

@Empressofthemundane - very interesting analysis.

Are independent schools really in a long-term decline though? I say this because indies across the nation have reported an increase in demand for places since the coronavirus pandemic happened.

I keep hearing that private education is becoming increasingly unaffordable for the Middle classes which I believe to be true but reality on the ground does not support this. The percentage of privately educated pupils have remained steady at 7-7.2% for 3 decades now so how are the supposedly out of pocket Middle classes coming up with money to pay for private schooling?

I'll start to take it seriously when I see the figures fall to 6% and under. When parents start voting with their feet not their mouth, Indies will be forced to lower their fees.

Two observations. Firstly, does the 7% figure that @Elij00 mentions mean that 7% of all UK-resident children are privately educated, or that 7% of all children educated in a UK school are privately educated? If the latter, then this would include overseas pupils, whose numbers have increased massively over the last couple of decades, and this might mask a decline in the numbers of British children going to private schools.

Second, I think @Empressofthemundane is right about the changes that have taken place, but assuming that private schools will decline does not allow for the possibility that they will adapt to survive. Certainly DS's school has shifted its focus quite significantly in recent years away from spending its funds on lavish facilities, and more towards increasing the bursary pot to support lower and middle income families who might otherwise not be able to afford private school. We also haven't seen the kind of eye-watering fee increases that I often read about on MN. So perhaps schools are realising themselves that they need to adapt in order to protect their long term future?

This makes interesting reading:
www.llakes.ac.uk/sites/default/files/Green%2C%20Anders%2C%20Henderson%20%26%20Henseke.pdf

Suggests it’s 5.8% once you exclude pupils from outside UK, if I’m reading this correctly

We’ve been priced out of the private education market and would traditionally have considered it (2 professional full time parents). After housing costs and pensions, we can’t afford £30k a year out of post tax income without severely compromising on quality of life. I mean, if one of our children was utterly miserable and there was no other option, of course we’d do it but it would be pretty miserable.

State options are okay but private round here appears to be thriving, but we are in a wealthy part of the UK. State 6th form is best in the country so loads abandon ship after GCSEs.

I thought they were declining, it's very expensive nowadays. The increase in fees & cost of houses that mean you have to earn a very good income to afford.

Plus I've often read you have a better chance of oxbridge if you go to a good state school?