Is demand for private schools falling in the long term?

[angrysquirrel73]

I am wondering whether the market for private education has shrunk since the 70s when I was child. I am guessing it has given the number of schools that have closed. I'm thinking that housing is now more expensive and people spend more on housing and extensions etc and have less to spend on private education?

I went to an all girls private school and since then the local private boys school also takes girls and my old school is not as academically selective as it was and does not do as well in the exams as it does.

I now also see this at my children's school. At the junior school it is academically non selective and there seems to be more emphasis on extra curricular than academics. Many parents seem more interested in extra curricular than academics. The local boys public school is now co-ed and I get the impression all of these schools are struggling to get 'bums on seats'.

We are outside of London and the home counties... I'm guessing its a different story in London...

I agree that the rise in fees has changed things, and, anecdotally, I think parents who would once have paid for private school now look at other options instead. DH works at a state super-selective and the distance some of the kids now travel to it are crazy - in the 90s no one was doing that and I think a lot of those parents then would have paid (proportionally much lower) school fees rather than have their children doing four hour round commutes.

also wages have stagnated too which will happen again now re covid

I suspect it has a lot to do with the area. We are in an area with excellent grammar schools and pretty good high schools. The private schools were for those who didn't pass 11+ and which weren't selective academically.

The girl's school closed about 10 years ago and the boy's one went coeducational and is now non fee paying.

Several preps though as the race is to get into the Grammars.

Where we lived previously the state schools were rated very poorly at the time and there were lots of good independents as lots of demand.

I am the registrar in a private pre-prep and prep school and our numbers have never been higher. The demand is certainly not falling in the South. Covid has definitely seen an increase in pupil numbers. Most Private schools offered an exceptionally good online education provision including awesome pastoral care, sport, music etc

I can only comment on the private schools in our County (Gloucestershire) of which there are quite a few! They seem to be doing fine as far as pupil numbers go and if anything they are getting busier. Yes overseas pupils account for a lot of the boarders but there seems to still be a good demand for day places.
Having said that this is an affluent area, and most private school parents tend to be business owners. The fees (at the boarding schools in particular) are eye watering even for their day pupils, particularly when you get to senior school level.

Interesting point about boys doing better in co-Ed and girls in same sex in regards to state vs private.

Does anyone know if that has been researched?
I have boys in single sex indies, and it was the best option locally for them, but have had a number of people sick their teeth at me and tell me that I’m harming their development.

Kokeshi123
'For parents with a certain amount of income, buying property near a good state school probably makes more financial sense.'
This makes sense in cities like London and lots of our friends have done this. The quality of state schooling in London has improved massively in the last 20 years. However outside of the burbs you need to travel a long distance to find an 'outstanding' school. In our case 17 miles. And some people do not have flexibility of location for their job.
All our friends in London have gone with state education for their children despite going to private schools themselves. They have spent the money on buying in the right catchment area and having extensions..

Twenty years ago, private schools made a poor choice to raise fees exponentially and depend upon a foreign super elite to fill their halls.

To be fair, I think that the biggest reason why ISs became a lot more expensive about 20 years ago was something to do with how teachers' pensions are funded. The rules were changed so that schools (=fee-paying parents) had to bear more of the cost of the pensions/insurance, or something. I am not clear on the details. That said, I have no doubt that some schools did spend big on flashy facilities as well.

These businesses identified a surge in interest from Russian and Chinese customers after the success of the Harry Potter books, and they responded to that by offering them facilities that would attract them to their own school rather than lose them to another school. It always makes me giggle because JK Rowling never boarded and neither did Enid Blyton and yet they have sold the concept of boarding to so many children over the last 70 years.

That’s really interesting @kokeshi123.

My point is that as schools serve a less broad constituency of the societies they are in, they become more vulnerable. Eg. Instead of talking the up, journalists lambast them. Instead of corporations providing their students with work experience, they bar the door and make placements only available to the “deserving.” Etc. If middle managers and journalists could afford private schools they might be more supportive, or at least hostile. Sure, foreign oligarchs can give money, but they don’t buttress a school’s reputation within a society.

Bursaries are laudable, and they make up for the state no longer funding assisted places, but hallowing out the middle and its second order effects are a dynamic that people are missing.

Thick fingers:
-talking them up
-less hostile

maybe bursaries for all children of journalists would help with fee paying schools crisis PR plans - they can silence the final pilar of accountability!

Oohhhbetty you may be on to something here... :-)

Something like that!

It hardly takes a genius in political strategy to see that if you disenfranchise influential opinion makers, you will find yourself being undermined.

Our prep has had a huge new intake. So no I think demand is very much on the up. Especially people who want out of London. In London waiting lists and so on mean that preps will always be full. Less selective and cheaper out of London perhaps, but people aren't stupid and the good rural schools will thrive now and the less profitable will go under or continue to struggle on without updating very old facilities. As has been the case where we are...

Our local comprehensive frequently outstrips the very close private schools at A level. Year on year.

Why send your kid to private school when the state school is better?

Many of the independent schools in our area have closed in the last decade or so. We do live in a largely rural county with a relatively low population density but also significant social deprivation in some parts, so the demographics probably play a role.
But we also have some excellent state schools, both primary and secondary. A lot of families who might opt for private education if they lived elsewhere, choose the good state provision instead. We sent our first child to one of the local independents initially but after a while we realised that there wasn't a lot that they offered that was superior to our excellent village school and the small advantages that there were were certainly not worth the money we were spending. So we moved and haven't regretted it. Houses closer to the good schools are a bit more expensive but there's not the massive difference that you bet in some areas and we were living in a "good" location anyway. The money saved has allowed us to pay for lots of extracurricular activities and a little bit of tutoring when needed and we have a lot more disposable income. It was a no brainer for us. Lots of other people obviously feel the same and I think that's the main reason why the independent sector us struggling around here. There was nothing "wrong" with our original choice, but it didn't represent value for money.

In Scotland it hasn’t - you can thank for the Scottish government for that!

@ArseInTheCoOpWindow

Our local comprehensive frequently outstrips the very close private schools at A level. Year on year.

Why send your kid to private school when the state school is better?

There are two answers to that. One is that that's not always the case - depending on the area, the state alternative might be academically poor. The second is that academic results are not the only reason for choosing a school. For us (and most of those I've spoken to) it's much more about facilities, extra curricular provision, class sizes, subject choice, general school experience.

Because we have a child who has learning difficulties and sensitivity- and wanted a lot of green space, small classes and as much outdoor activity as possible... especially in Pre prep. His learning difficulties have proved that we made the right decision. I have friends who are moving from state to private despite having a full time TA and statement because it is not possible for a teacher to give that kind of personal attention to 30+ children. I'm sure if you have a great middle of the road child then it's possible to make that choice without consequence but we don't. And I couldn't give a stuff about oxbridge!

theblueflower

It's the latter. If British Students amongst these schools are in decline, then it's clearly not getting through to them as they seem to increase their fees on a yearly basis. We all know British Students are the backbones of these elite institutions and without them it'll simply become just another foreign school. Once they experience a drastic fall in the number of British Students,they'd be forced to rethink their model.

I don't know when reach they'd reach that point but it does not look like it'd be anytime soon. I seriously don't know how some of the tier 3 and 4 schools get away with charging as much as they do. My only explanation is that there must still be a lot of hidden wealth amongst British families that we don't see.

@Elij00 from what I can tell in the small groups of parents I know there are an awful lot of grandparents shelling out. There aren't that many super rich types.

No sure

London applications still seem high

You’d need to see the numbers

Maybe have o/s have helped

Not

The blue flower,

But l meant in my area. What’s the point forking out when the state schools get better results? And extra curricular stuff is good too