Contextual offers arise from a number of 'flags' on an applicant's UCAS form. Flags are given for first generation to go to uni, postcodes associated with deprivation, school attended having very low uni take up rates, LAC.
Most state schools won't generate flags - it will just be those low performing ones and those which historically send very few to uni.
Re the comment that grades are rarely the driver behind going private - I would disagree. They may not be the only driver, but they are a big one for most people.
They might not be the only driver - great grades are possible in most grammars and good Comps, but people sometimes choose to pay still because they feel the fee paying school will offer extras beyond these grades.
Some choose the less academic schools which offer other stuff such as SEN provision or wider stuff, becaue they know their kids aren't ever going to be top academics - they won't get into the really academic fee paying schools. However, these parents usually still want more than decent grades for their offspring. Results could not be said to be of no consequence.
It may well be that Oxbridge isn't a driving factor behind people's choices - and that seems very reasonable because most kids ar e never going to be Oxbridge candidates. However, I would think many people paying fees hope their kids will go to uni, and achieve a decent clutch if GCSEs and A levels assuming there is nothing particularly preventing this. It is up to parents to research schools and be fully au fait with how that school is achieving on entry and if it is line with what they hope for their kids. It's not unreasonable to be disappointed if standards in a school plummet, or if your own child performs hugely below the norm and the risk of this happening has never been mentioned along the way.
As with all big purchased, buyer beware is a good mantra. It is up to the purchaser to check out the product and the value for money.
And I think it is true that few who have paid later openly say they think they received poor value for money - we do have to validate our own N big financial decisions. So as someone else mentioned, when it has turned out to be disappointing, paying fees is justified by saying the state options were far worse than they really were, or by emphasising the non-academic and less tangible aspects that it is hard to pin down and quantify. It's easier to say here on an anonymous forum that we secretly think we could have had similar outcomes from a free option, but harder in real life, when those who have had the free option take huge pleasure from knowing their little Jonny did just as well as your little Jonny, plus plays for the county or is in a top orchestra, but they saved £150k at the same time.
In the end we can all only do what we think is best at the time we have to make those choices, with the information available to us. We need to gather the info as fully as we can and then we have to accept our choices. Sometimes it is possible to change our
R minds part way through, but this isn't always possible. So I think we need to be as sure as we can before deciding and then commit to the choice we make. Go with it and there isn't a lot of point analysing the 'what ifs' too much, because we can never know what other options might have turned out as. Only pay if you can afford it and are willing to see the money go and don't feel you need a very specific 'return' on your investment in terms of grades or uni outcomes. It's never good for kids to feel they owe their parents certain GCSEs or uni places because their parents crimped and saved. The outcome will be what it will be and if you've chosen to pay, you have to accept that the money is gone, for the experience as much as the outcome.