goodbye
From SchoolsWeek:
"It adds: “When the new grade 5 standard is introduced in place of the current “C” grade standard, we calculate that the percentage of children who secure this “good pass” level in English and maths will initially fall by around 23 per cent [percentage points], from 58 per cent to 35 per cent.”
To ensure England is keeping pace with “world class” standards of education, CentreForum recommends the government establishes a “new benchmark standard” which would measure pupils achievement across 8 GCSEs.
The report goes on to say: “This would mean securing an average grade of 5 or better in these specified eight subjects. We judge that this would be close to a world class standard.”
Current figures suggest only around 46 per cent of pupils in England reach this “world class” standard."
So it's expected that 35% of students will get a 5+ in Maths and English, and 46% will get an average of a 5+ in their 8 subjects. If grammars cream off the top 25%, then there are still a good percentage of students capable of a 'world class standard' left in the secondary modern. If secondary moderns are set up, as you suggest, to cater for those for whom the new GCSEs are out of reach (which I think is quite a small percentage, assuming that grades lower than a 5 are still acceptable for college courses as they are now) then there will be a large group of children in the middle who don't make it into the grammar, but who will also be poorly served by a school set up for the very bottom end.
I think the new maths GCSE is awful for the very bottom end, but the grade 1 will be aligned with the current G grade, so really it's no worse than it is now.