Is it likely Irish unification will happen in years to come?

[cuppateaandabiccie]

I’m in NI and I quite like being a part of the UK so I most certainly am against a United Ireland.

i like our education system and I know the health service is on its knees, but I’d rather not pay every time I need to go to the doctors.

obviously Sinn Fein are now the biggest party meaning they can nominate for First Minister - does this actually pose a risk to the union with the UK?

If the Deputy First Minister and First Minister both hold equal office - then surely they had the same chances of trying to implement a border poll when the they were Deputy First Minister?

if there was to be a border poll, do people think the majority would support Irish unity or go against it?

also, do people think the DUP will refuse to enter government with Sinn Fein as FM?

Ironically loads of unionists got Irish passports after Brexit, as they were entitled to do. You can’t really make sweeping statements about identities in NI.

@blubberyboo is totally right. My Protestant friend has a baby called Aoife. Her DUP voting parents were quite shocked (her husband is English so not his influence). I’ve also got a friend who is learning Irish through his local Presbyterian church in East Belfast.

you don’t really understand them at all do you
I've never understood unionists and I never will

Regarding identity in NI, and how it's changed over the years, the following piece from Wikipedia is interesting -

"In the early 20th century, most Ulster Protestants and Catholics saw themselves as Irish, although Protestants tended to have a much stronger sense of Britishness.
With the onset of the Home Rule Crisis and events that followed, Protestants gradually began to abandon Irish identity, as Irishness and Britishness became more and more to be seen as mutually exclusive. In 1968 , just before the Troubles, 39% of Protestants described themselves as British and 20% described themselves as Irish, while 32% chose an Ulster identity. By 1978, there had been a large shift in identity amongst Protestants, with the majority (67%) now calling themselves British and only 8% calling themselves Irish.This shift has not been reversed. Meanwhile, the majority of Catholics continued to see themselves as Irish.
From 1989, 'Northern Irish' began to be included as an identity choice in surveys, and its popularity has grown since then."

I should also say they the Irish passport wielding unionists I know got them about 5 years before Brexit before it was even mentioned. They literally needed passports to go to Spain and first port of call was Irish.

I also know an orangemans daughter who called their daughter Caoimhe.

when we go abroad literally nobody calls us British when they hear our accent. Foreigners always call us Irish. And it makes sense because Northern Irish is just another form of Irish. It certainly isn’t English Scottish or Welsh!

The history of all our place names are derived from Irish.

Recent-ish article on the Protestants learning Irish:
m.independent.ie/irish-news/protestants-loyalists-and-unionists-in-belfast-learning-irish-is-very-much-their-language-41408498.html

@BessieFinkNottle

that article is correct. When our grandparents and great parents were born in late 1800s early 1900s they were simply Irish because NI didn’t exist. Ireland was part of Uk so they were both British and Irish, and wanted Ireland to remain in Uk. and down the generations it has remained so. Their descendants are still Irish people who just believe that NI should remain in UK and they also want to maintain a UK identity.

The actual cost of Irish unity is disputed but it is unlikely to be the amount of the subvention that the U.K. make every year . Lots of publications on this issue , such as this www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60479354.amp. It is not unreasonable to think that the NI economy would see tax income rise with reunification as it would attract investment to NI , generating taxes and basically balancing out costs to the Irish exchequer. In addition NI would be back in the EU which would bring economic advantages.Ireland is a wealthy country despite some of the comments made in this thread - one of the fastest growing economies in the last decade, did not go too into recession during covid, rebounded since lock down ended etc. The NHS being a benefit is a bit of a red herring , as it’s not free, not in good shape and does not provide better outcomes across a board of metrics. ( However that’s not to say the Irish health service is great either) In saying NI and Irish people have nothing in common, well are you comparing apple and oranges here ? ( no pun intended) The Belfast solicitor with a rugby playing son is likely to have more in common with a Dublin solicitor with a rugby playing son than s/he would have with a fellow NI citizen who is a hill farmer in Fermanagh. And I’m pretty sure farmers on either side of the border have plenty of common concerns. Being British is an umbrella term
in the same way as being Irish is, there is no one set of traits everyone shares. There is plenty of common ground to build on between all the communities on the island. Someone upthread said that Ireland and NI does not share common history , that is ludicrous. There has certainly been some rewriting of history on both sides of the border since partition , on one side to reinforce a green identity , on the other to create a separate orange identity but it’s not as clear cut. I’m saying that , there is a lot of work to be done before reunification could take place , rushing a border poll would not be a good outcome of the recent elections and of course the fallout from brexit has not even begun to be felt yet in terms of what it means politically for NI, the border and the peace process.

@FolkSongSweet I agree with you. I'm sorry that was your childhood.

hmm don’t be so quick to make that statement. Northern Irish unionists are Irish and do see themselves as largely as Protestant Irish in the sense they live on the island of Ireland. Even Ian Paisley Snr described himself as such.

I don't know any Protestant unionists who describe themselves as Irish.
They call themselves Northern Irish but not Irish.
I know many who have Irish passports, go to Irish dancing etc and they understand that they live on the island of Ireland but it's not the same.
On forms they tick British for nationality not Irish.

I also know catholics who voted SF but would not vote for a united Ireland.

I personally don't think reunification will happen, not for a long time anyway. The figures don't lend themselves to calling a referendum. SF know this. They must also know if it was to happen it wouldn't be peaceful I can't see the hardline loyalists sitting back and uniting with ROI.

I don't think anyone needs to worry about Irish unity, if below below is any indication of how British parliament think.

m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/qub-professor-ponders-if-britain-will-invade-ireland-should-sinn-fein-sweep-to-power-41639892.html

I see he wasn't actually able to name a single Tory MP who believes that 'taking back' the whole of Ireland would be justifiable! I actually don't know anyone on the island of Great Britain who would think this was a half-sane idea.

I noticed there was no names but opinions like this have the potential to stir up trouble.

In saying that RTÉ broadcasted that opinion.

Surely he was joking?

it’s obvs ridiculous- the tories would love
to get shot of NI like all the rest of the English.

Now if it was France, we were talking about 'retaking' ... [NOT SERIOUS]

I have seen a few anonymous daily mail readers making comments during the whole negotiations about sending in the army to sort out the paddies.

It's inflammatory and can potentially give people the opening to cause problems while pretending they are not responsible for their actions.

Patel had no problem with voicing her opinion to block food supplies to Ireland. Regardless of the swift action of May to refute it, the fact that PP felt emboldened to say it says there is a feeling of freedom to say it.

@JaneJeffer I'm afraid a tiny group of loyalist paramilitaries don't get to dictate the future of the island should a democratic vote choose reunification.

@PleasantBirthday because it's on our island obviously where thousands of Irish citizens live.

@MissusMaisel haha, currency, GCSEs etc are small potatoes. If you speak to people up there who identify as nationalist a lot of them feel very connected and see themselves as the same as those from the south. I was going to give a longer response until I read your point about how well the south is doing economically and politically and I realised there's no point. Socially the south is a mess, in terms of housing and health in particular.

There is definitely a contingent in England (hardline Brexiteers) who are absolutely furious that Ireland has the backing of the EU in Brexit and therefore holds the upper hand. But they’re lunatics.

That article is either a joke or sarcasm. The nato reference to invading neutral counties is a reference to Ukraine but the UK government would not be arsed trying to invade and then hold Ireland. Despite the keyboard warriors there would be no desire for it and the Uk would be as foolish as Putin to attempt it. And with Biden and his Irish roots in US they would not get support from rest of NATO and could potentially threaten the cohesion of NATO.If push came to shove they would much sooner give NI to ROI and rip up the GFA stating that it wasn’t designed to cope with Brexit.

If unification was to happen it will only be when the time is right and that means preparation to bring the people willingly and welcoming along so that current unionists feel they can have sufficient input into the democratic running of the country and that it makes economic sense to vote for it.
anything less than that the vote won’t come and the ROI citizens won’t want it either, for it will be more trouble than it is worth. I think Sinn Fein knows this and this is where they will focus their energies in Dublin. Ie getting RoI citizens to think about what a shared future could be like with us Nordies because it likely will mean a lot of change and upheaval for them. The population will increase by about 37% which will impact on their elections and governance so they would have to seriously consider the impact. How long will that take? How long is a piece of string

I'm afraid a tiny group of loyalist paramilitaries don't get to dictate the future of the island should a democratic vote choose reunification.
They could have a devastating effect on the country and to pretend otherwise is foolish.

@JaneJeffer Look on the bright side. They were only "successful" during the war because the RUC and British Army gave them weapons and intelligence. They might struggle nowadays!

There's no bright side to terrorism!

Of course no one wants terrorism but equally the fear of terrorism shouldn’t prevent the democratic will of the people being acted on. Reunification can only happen if a majority vote for it. There will be a fall out from the results of the poll either way but hopefully some lessons have been learnt from the past.

i find it interesting that so many people from the South have said they have never visited the North. I have just left the car park of a shopping centre in the north, and the cars were overwhelmingly with southern registrations.

I think what many might not fully grasp is that there is an eastern corridor from Dublin to Belfast that makes travel between the two (and all inter lying areas) very quick and convenient. There is no appearance of ‘a totally foreign country’ that people would ‘never visit’.

It’s only an hour or so to drive between Belfast and Dublin - it can take me significantly longer to get across London.

Most people I know in NI will use Dublin or Belfast Intl airports interchangeably depending on price.