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Is this beginning of recession?

40 replies

caringcarer · 10/01/2023 10:13

Amazon cut 18,000 jobs and not just seasonal ones. Banks have cut a lot of staff and are closing many branches. Hargreaves Landsdown is cutting high volume of staff. Do you think this is the beginning of the recession we keep hearing is coming and how long do you think might last? I can remember how tough it was in 2008.

OP posts:
xogossipgirlxo · 10/01/2023 10:28

Banks were cutting staff since I remember. Due to change to online banking, so it's nothing new. But yes, I think we are only starting to see the beginning of recession.

MondayMorningsSuckBalls · 10/01/2023 16:26

I work for a large public sector organisation and up to 40% of staff are being cut in the next 12 (ish) months 😬

Thingamebobwotsit · 10/01/2023 16:37

Yes. It's going to be tough and deeper and longer than the 2008 crash. Last time round the government had wriggle room to prop a lot of the systems up.
This time no wriggle room thanks to Truss and Kwarteng and on the back of 12 years of deep public sector cuts, high inflation and people taking on more debt as interest rates were so low. I fear we are only just seeing the beginning of it. 2008 was comparatively a short, sharp shock. This is structurally much different.

D20 · 10/01/2023 18:36

Amazon are also opening up new warehouses so more of a relocation of jobs perhaps? HL I’d imagine performed really poorly because the markets have been so depressed so I can also understand those losses. I don’t feel like a recession is inevitable this time around but feels a bit like choosing the right lottery numbers.

minipie · 10/01/2023 18:42

Yes. I agree with pp - there are a lot of structural factors such as high household debt, ageing/poor health demographic and overreliance (by individuals and govt) on property prices rather than earnings or other kinds of investment. Add to that brexit and covid which means there is no money to try to redeem things with.

I am worried.

icelolly12 · 10/01/2023 19:16

I don’t feel like a recession is inevitable this time around but feels a bit like choosing the right lottery numbers

Errr it's pretty widely accepted recession is inevitable in 2023

www.ft.com/content/81fbdff6-dacb-476b-a4ba-12696e7f7800

D20 · 10/01/2023 20:17

Err I said ‘I don’t feel’. I’m allowed you know.

ThroughThickAndThin01 · 10/01/2023 21:10

I was quite shocked by this. I know there is a recession looming, but super power Amazon being one of the first to take a hit is a surprise.

ThroughThickAndThin01 · 10/01/2023 21:11

MondayMorningsSuckBalls · 10/01/2023 16:26

I work for a large public sector organisation and up to 40% of staff are being cut in the next 12 (ish) months 😬

Will this be natural wastage?

caringcarer · 10/01/2023 21:26

I'm very worried about it. I know in 2008 accountants, banking and ICT specialist took a hit. This time it feels like it will be worse, and longer lasting. As people have said the government don't have money this time around as it all got spent on Covid furlough scheme and a lot on fraudulent business loans.

OP posts:
jgw1 · 10/01/2023 21:31

I shouldn't worry too much about a UK recession in 2023. The Uk will likely remain in the doldrums until people wake up and realise that we need a proper free trade agreement with the countries nearest to us, something simple like a single market or customs union would sort alot of problems out.

MaverickGooseGoose · 10/01/2023 22:03

We're almost in it already.

Amazon are coat curing and moving more to AI, I wouldn't use what they do as a recession marker.

Echo40 · 11/01/2023 06:47

I am worried but do feel like our jobs are safe as I work health and and social care.
Husband retail non essential home related I expect sales fall as people have less spend on houses but seems be people with money maybe people who paid off mortgages and lots of savings plus new builds everyone needs flooring at some point.

My kids were all tiny in 2008 now they teenagers costing me a small fortune on school bus money/ trips and activities.

Seem so many articles lately so many people have no savings for fall back on and high levels of consumer debt.
People need to remember universal credit takes least 6 weeks come through so my advice anyone who's worried about job is

Save at least 1 to 2 months worth of fixed living costs so rent/ mortgage/ energy/ phone/ Council tax.

Try and buy extra food each week to build up basic emergency backup panty of long life food like tinned soup. Baked beans. Noodles/ pasta and sauces. Tinned meat and fish. Meals in a tin also useful if we had blackouts.
Keep in range the basics pasta / rice/ lentils beans coffee/ sugar bathroom items/ herbs spices/ stock gravy granules so if you did lose your Jon you have food fall back on rather than panic and food bank vouchers were only thing council offered when husband lost his job last time.

Pay down as much debt as you can this year..
Try and build up savings pots for car abd xmas fund .

We preparing this year for husband earn less.
Mortgage and energy bill to increase
We know our cars on its last legs but afford a new one yet.

Do businesses have pay back covid bounce back loans soon as many if our self employed freinds got them.

All these strikes must be impacting on spending but the government don't seem to care.

Bank of England on about 2 more rate rises to control inflation will surely push is into recession this spring.

www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1719063/bank-of-england-inflation-uk-economy-interest-rates/amp

MushMonster · 11/01/2023 07:00

I think we are entering it indeed.
Prices keep going up and up. The help with the energy bills will likely stop in March.
Well.... another bump in the ride! I just had a baby on the 2008 one, that was not fun.

caringcarer · 11/01/2023 09:31

Good advice from @Echo40 about building a stock cupboard of food in tins with long life on codes. Good to top up freezer too. I'm buying a few items extra each week to build a little stockpile in case of DH job loss.

OP posts:
Blueskies3 · 11/01/2023 10:01

I'm in Australia, but it is inevitable.

StarDolphins · 11/01/2023 10:22

I am worried. Hearing of lots of redundancies & my job is v v quiet (Education supplies).

I’m literally trying to spend nothing & eat cheaply but it’s hard when food prices are going up every single week.

OhIdoLike2bBesideTheSeaside · 12/01/2023 07:09

caringcarer · 11/01/2023 09:31

Good advice from @Echo40 about building a stock cupboard of food in tins with long life on codes. Good to top up freezer too. I'm buying a few items extra each week to build a little stockpile in case of DH job loss.

I agree this is excellent advice from @Echo40
I try to do so and my project for this year is clearing out all the junk in the understairs cupboard so that we have have it shelved out to make storage for extra things like tins etc...

Echo40 · 12/01/2023 10:42

OhIdoLike2bBesideTheSeaside · 12/01/2023 07:09

I agree this is excellent advice from @Echo40
I try to do so and my project for this year is clearing out all the junk in the understairs cupboard so that we have have it shelved out to make storage for extra things like tins etc...

Thank 😊 you I'm not some crazy doomsday American prepper honest.
Our cupboard under stairs just used be cupboard of doom.
Its valuable space.
Husband used old bits bed cut different lengths and cheap brackets screw fix to place shelves on back wall under the eaves it's quite a small cupboard wish it was bigger but I just try and keep big things and bulk stock same item in there the everyday I keep in dining room cupboard we built in alcove using cheap ikea wall cabinets stacked and secured to wall.
We don't keep much food in kitchen as it's fairly small.
We also have big ikea cupboard in bathroom which is so handy for all the toiletries and loo roll.

We learnt hard way in 2008 when Husband lost his job
That the council did not care
Housing and universal credit can take 6 weeks and all we got offered was food bank vouchers which we dident use.
I remember going to big tesco with 60 quod last entire month and foraging as it was summer.
Luckily Husband quickly got a new Job but was scary as I did not work we had 3 tiny kids, non understanding landlord we did a pay day loan to pay the rent.
We told no family or freinds and even in work was another month before he got paid .

The next big wakeup call was 2020.
We always do big pantry/ freezer challenge in jan and feb as low paid months usually worked well except covid hit march 2020 exactly time when we were low on everything and everyone's was panic buying.

Then 2020/ 2021 kept up with shopping so we always had 2 weeks food in house in case we had self isolate
I then extended that to a month now I'm aiming because silly price rises, working more days and some shortages/ availability issues split food into different categorises

1 months worth drinks cereal and biscuits
2_3, months bathroom items and cleaning as they dont go out date.
1 months worth meals , meat and bread in freezer.
years worth tinned tomato pasta rice ketchup oils herbs and spices
don't have space keep years worth of every food or the budget.

I don't stockpile loo roll
or crisps due to space and fact too many treats family eat them all so I ration and buy crisps/ treats weekly alongside my fresh shop.
weekly shop is mostly just chilled items and reductions mostly packed lunch bits.

We only run 1 car so doing bulk shops heavy items really saves effort ? Time and money as can shop around more in car I go several food shops loyal to no one many aldis and lilds close to each other.

Then in Feb 2022 the HMRC decided we owed them money and to claw it back through wages by changing code which left us skint.
I was so glad that every December we do big stock up and buy as much reduced as can to fill freezers as made things less stressful like a food savings account.

If you worried about health or job security a food savings account gives peace of mind.
If I get covid work won't pay me.
That's a loss of £240 a week.

If the car plays up one month and we spend loads then we can buy less food and exist on what we have.

Is this beginning of recession?
Is this beginning of recession?
Is this beginning of recession?
Mamamia7962 · 12/01/2023 11:32

For a few years Banks have been pushing people to use on line banking and making it really difficult if you go in to the local branch for something. My local branch in the town centre doesn't even have a counter service anymore so it won't surprise me if more banks close.

I was in the cafe of my local m and s yesterday and couldn't believe how busy it was for mid week so people do still have money for treats.

caringcarer · 12/01/2023 14:35

Today Liberty Steel say 440 redundancies due to restructuring.

OP posts:
Houserenos · 12/01/2023 15:08

Wow, love your pantry!

Echo40 · 13/01/2023 09:16

Houserenos · 12/01/2023 15:08

Wow, love your pantry!

Thanks it really is a tiny cupboard under the stairs nothing special was full junk before.
The best way try beat inflation on long life goods is to bulk buy.
We are family of 6 so we eat large volume of food
I also mostly try and cook from scratch so regularly use basics like tinned tomatoes/ passatta/ stock/ packet mixes/ puree and herbs.

All tomato based products have increased.
Also increase in rice and sugar recently.

Last few months seen big increase in dairy/ eggs.

Oils and pasta went up as did coffee but they stabilised for now.

Saw the news about miniscule growth and don't get it.
I assume gdp includes hospitality so meals/ takeaway and there's more of that around Christmas not just goods although nov includes black Friday figures which maybe skewed it.

www.upday.com/uk/uk-economy-grew-by-0-1-between-october-and-november-official-figures-show?utm_source=upday&utm_medium=referral

Well woke up today to no pay in my account.
Not sure why if delay banking system.
I'm not the only one but feel for others who have bills due today.
Husband end of month so we use his current account nearly all bills and 90% bills go out on the 30th to the 2nd.
I then transfer anything left to variable spending so food /, petrol so we always have enough in the main current account to pay fixed bills.

Recently really been truing to save and transfer some of my weekly wages to my other current account and also keep small amount cash at home with me at all times.
I also got paid child benefit tue and have plenty of food in fridge/ cupboard/ freezer.
So if I don't get paid today I can manage its just a inconvenience not a stressful disaster.

On xmas eve a local chain retail emailed workers and basically they lied to them and customer said they had no jobs come back to and in liquidation.
As safe as I like to think 🤔 mine and husband employment is you just never know.

So urge most people
Try and save small saving pots.
Have a cash tin emergency
Have some back stock food
As you never know what's going to happen.

A storm is coming but create a buffer to weather the storm.
Don't rely in overdraft or credit cards as fallback as at any time the banks can demand on back or reduce credit limit its happened to us in the past.

AcetoneForMyPhone · 13/01/2023 20:57

2023: Expect a financial crash followed by major energy-related changes:

ourfiniteworld.com/

This blog is worth a read.

Blueskies3 · 14/01/2023 10:30

I love your pantry.

I hate how there is this notion that you are a doomsday prepper, when you just want to be prepared in case one of you gets laid off/sick/ etc etc I think anything can happen these days so it is smart.