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Is this beginning of recession?

40 replies

caringcarer · 10/01/2023 10:13

Amazon cut 18,000 jobs and not just seasonal ones. Banks have cut a lot of staff and are closing many branches. Hargreaves Landsdown is cutting high volume of staff. Do you think this is the beginning of the recession we keep hearing is coming and how long do you think might last? I can remember how tough it was in 2008.

OP posts:
OhIdoLike2bBesideTheSeaside · 14/01/2023 11:17

@Echo40

This is exactly the sort of thing we hope to put in our understairs cupboard it looks brilliant.
I have been busy sellling all the stuff we don't need and I have made £180 so far and when the pantry is finished I shall be going shopping with that money to stock it up.

Also if you get the bits in Aldi and Lidl it's cheaper than saying running out of ketchup or beans then having to pay a lot more for the same item!

Echo40 · 14/01/2023 12:16

OhIdoLike2bBesideTheSeaside · 14/01/2023 11:17

@Echo40

This is exactly the sort of thing we hope to put in our understairs cupboard it looks brilliant.
I have been busy sellling all the stuff we don't need and I have made £180 so far and when the pantry is finished I shall be going shopping with that money to stock it up.

Also if you get the bits in Aldi and Lidl it's cheaper than saying running out of ketchup or beans then having to pay a lot more for the same item!

Good luck we in declutter mode again as trying to make our house and garden work harder for us during these times.
Trying to downsize clothes, books and toys to have more minimalist home and space dedicated to the things that matter and save money.

For us that's running 4 freezers some may say cost of energy but the savings buying reduced and freezing ofsets the cost of electric to run them they all fairly new freezers they don't cost a lot to run as long as defrost fairly regularly and keep full they more efficient.
My small half chest is just for bread as find although overalls reductions harder to find bread still can be easy plus always loads free bread on olio.

I'm not prepping for weather disasters or nuclear war.
I'm prepping save Me time and money as I work 4/,7 days.
I don't always have time go at times items reduced in evenings as have little one put to bed and family tea to cook.
We also run 1 car so it's coordinating time to go together and usually drive to big supermarket further away or even 2 or 3 shops in 2 go as aldi is next to hoke bargains . B&m next to asda and poundland we do variety different retail parks as we live in large city we loyal to no one its learning who's cheapest for what.

I have a sad old people's trolly to go ti local High Street I don't care how it looks itss been so practical to carry heavier stuff and during 2020 spring panic buying it was invaluable as would do 2 or 3 runs in 1 day to nearby High Street to ensure we had enough.
I do like buy fresh weekly as find fruit and veg sadly just hardly lasts mostly packed lunch and snacks weekly light items to carry.

I buy soft drinks and cereals once a month as they so bulky to store would take up too much space.
We cut back on juice fizzy drinks and booze and buy squash.
Tesco Value squash is less than 50p bottle so that saves money as buy 10 of each flavour.

Ketchup the kids used like lidls batts it's been out of stock for over 6months only expensive heinz.
Aldi bramwell gone up and often out of stock and they only have heinz.
When it is in stock its 77p.bottle last week.
My 4 kids I estimate get through least 2 bottles a month so 26 bottles a year.
If I was to buy 2 bottles of heinz a month would be over ,£6 v £1.54, aldi.
But experimenting with other brands morrisions savers Ketchup is 2 p less than own brand hardly much of saving.
Sainsbury value Hubbard brand was 46p recently gone up to 49p but cheaper than aldi or morrisions.
So 98p v £1.54 aldi or nearly 7 quid 2 bottles heinz that's a huge saving.

I brought 6bottles olive oil. 6bottles sunflower at start of war.
No idea how much that's saved me as oil really shot up and doesn't take much space.
Really is deciding what do you most use.
What do you think will shoot up.
Recent sugar increased and rice caught me by surprise.

We get through roughly 1 tin baked beans a week so brought 52 cans before they went up.
Paid £1.09, lilds for 4 used be 99p so bulk brought and the next week they £1.29, and now they possibly £1.39, so made a saving there.

Tinned tomatoes value lilds and everywhere else used be 29p
Then they went upto 32p
Now they 39p lilds
Value penne used be 29p and spagetti 20p now 41/45p and 28/ 30p.
Lilds rice last week gone up 30p for 8 bags boil in bag.

Need to start planting seeds and trying grow more at allotment and in many pots around our garden..
Might add raised beds to front garden.

With buying extra buy few extra items per week so set aside £5,/ 10 buy cheap extras then at end of month you be surprised how much you have and feel slightly worse when see price gone up again.

Can't beat price rises on fresh or dairy it is what it is we not going up milk or cheese.
But will long life grocery items and cleaning/ bathroom items sometimes can beat them as 12 tubes toothpaste doesn't take up much space or 12 bars of soap.

Biggest issue I'm finding is either the value or own brand is out of stock and at little tesco they don't stock the cheapet items only branded .
But also the value or own brand supermarket items are going up in price lilds and aldi although still cheaper most time than big 4 the range and availability been poor and price difference shrinking not to mention factoring in time and petrol go elsewhere as lilds been useless in 2022 really bad availability whole empty ailses and freezers.

MrsSkylerWhite · 14/01/2023 12:19

Thingamebobwotsit · 10/01/2023 16:37
Yes. It's going to be tough and deeper and longer than the 2008 crash. Last time round the government had wriggle room to prop a lot of the systems up.
This time no wriggle room thanks to Truss and Kwarteng and on the back of 12 years of deep public sector cuts, high inflation and people taking on more debt as interest rates were so low. I fear we are only just seeing the beginning of it. 2008 was comparatively a short, sharp shock. This is structurally much different“

This. Those ideologically mad fuckers should be charged with something (no, I don’t know what, I’m not a legal expert). They are personally responsible for causing millions real hardship. Don’t know how they can sleep at night.

KnittedCardi · 14/01/2023 12:26

We are in unique times however. Several commentators are on the fence on this due to low unemployment, high inactivity, high post covid demand, and high levels of savings due to covid lockdown. The scenarios to previous recessions aren't there. What happens in Russia/Ukraine and China are key.

Echo40 · 14/01/2023 14:15

KnittedCardi · 14/01/2023 12:26

We are in unique times however. Several commentators are on the fence on this due to low unemployment, high inactivity, high post covid demand, and high levels of savings due to covid lockdown. The scenarios to previous recessions aren't there. What happens in Russia/Ukraine and China are key.

So true we truly are a global world.
Lots good going up as cost of energy and transport risen.
Uk and America import loads from china which has caused serious issues in the supply chains.
I think with 🇬🇧 like it ir not because is part of the problem.
But food/ energy inflation going up within EU too and this was befire Ukraine War started.
Tories blame Ukraine and covid for everything.
They don't want face 10 years austerity, lack pandemic preparedness and squandering billions of public money to their tory donors for useless ppe, 37 billion track and trace that rivals the cost if space satellite and economic mismanagement has left UK worse place than others.

We have lowest pensions in Europe
Highest working hours
Low salary
High housing costs
Worse health care we can't even provide safe minimum working levels on non strike days.

Also factor in all the extreme weather reduced harvests.
Some countries like India banning rice and wheat exports.
Energy makes stuff that's grown in green houses costs more.

Higher energy costs impact on good and services.

Globally banks/ amazon are cutting jobs so unemployment will go up.
Pretending covid doesn't exist, lack treatment long covid, anti mask, reductions on vaccination programme, poor ventilation, high waiting times on NHS is I suspect why many left the workplace early or are inactive.
Extortionate childcare costs prevent parents working more hour's.

We really not in a good place and tories have no plan.

If China go for Taiwan that's a worry.
Grain still not really leaving Ukraine they were huge agricultural player.

I can't see energy decreasing.
As many stockpile Russian gas before cut off into storage that UK 🇬🇧 doesn't have as truss sold it off.
Next winter we all be competing Norway and USA/ Middle East energy which supply and demand will increase price.

Squeeze on interest rates disregards the cause of high inflation is essential spending on energy and food not a over inflated housing market or spending on luxuries.

Metabigot · 14/01/2023 18:46

I work I HR and let's just say there's always restructuring going on even in boom years

It has admittedly ramped up lately and industries like retail and hospitality are going to see drops in trade that will follow through to staff cuts undoubtedly.

Metabigot · 14/01/2023 19:13

ThroughThickAndThin01 · 10/01/2023 21:11

Will this be natural wastage?

It would be extremely unlikely for 40% of stadd to go in a year in the jobs they need rid of. Particularly if the external jobs market is drying up.

SophieLaGeroff · 14/01/2023 19:18

Echo40 · 11/01/2023 06:47

I am worried but do feel like our jobs are safe as I work health and and social care.
Husband retail non essential home related I expect sales fall as people have less spend on houses but seems be people with money maybe people who paid off mortgages and lots of savings plus new builds everyone needs flooring at some point.

My kids were all tiny in 2008 now they teenagers costing me a small fortune on school bus money/ trips and activities.

Seem so many articles lately so many people have no savings for fall back on and high levels of consumer debt.
People need to remember universal credit takes least 6 weeks come through so my advice anyone who's worried about job is

Save at least 1 to 2 months worth of fixed living costs so rent/ mortgage/ energy/ phone/ Council tax.

Try and buy extra food each week to build up basic emergency backup panty of long life food like tinned soup. Baked beans. Noodles/ pasta and sauces. Tinned meat and fish. Meals in a tin also useful if we had blackouts.
Keep in range the basics pasta / rice/ lentils beans coffee/ sugar bathroom items/ herbs spices/ stock gravy granules so if you did lose your Jon you have food fall back on rather than panic and food bank vouchers were only thing council offered when husband lost his job last time.

Pay down as much debt as you can this year..
Try and build up savings pots for car abd xmas fund .

We preparing this year for husband earn less.
Mortgage and energy bill to increase
We know our cars on its last legs but afford a new one yet.

Do businesses have pay back covid bounce back loans soon as many if our self employed freinds got them.

All these strikes must be impacting on spending but the government don't seem to care.

Bank of England on about 2 more rate rises to control inflation will surely push is into recession this spring.

www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1719063/bank-of-england-inflation-uk-economy-interest-rates/amp

If the only thing you think you'd be offered if a job loss happened is food bank vouchers then it makes no sense to stockpile food. Much better to just put the money you'd spend into savings then you can spend it on other stuff and use the food bank for food.

Onnabugeisha · 14/01/2023 19:22

caringcarer · 10/01/2023 10:13

Amazon cut 18,000 jobs and not just seasonal ones. Banks have cut a lot of staff and are closing many branches. Hargreaves Landsdown is cutting high volume of staff. Do you think this is the beginning of the recession we keep hearing is coming and how long do you think might last? I can remember how tough it was in 2008.

Er, we are already in a recession. It’s sort of retrospective because a recession is announced after two consecutive quarters of contracting GDP. It was announced in Nov 22, but had started summer of 2022.

www.accountancyage.com/2022/11/17/autumn-statement-2022-uk-officially-in-recession-amid-gloomy-economic-forecasts/?amp=1

PrincessConstance · 15/01/2023 10:16

I work in manufacturing. Orders are thru the roof. Every company says the same.
Dp works in domestic plumbing. Business is booming.
Renumeration is high.
Both industries are struggling with recruitment and retention.

I believe some sectors are over-saturated and we will see a correction.

scaredoff · 15/01/2023 10:20

jgw1 · 10/01/2023 21:31

I shouldn't worry too much about a UK recession in 2023. The Uk will likely remain in the doldrums until people wake up and realise that we need a proper free trade agreement with the countries nearest to us, something simple like a single market or customs union would sort alot of problems out.

"people wake up"

Haha, good one.

OhmygodDont · 15/01/2023 16:49

Prices for everything are on the up. Even those of us who have land but are not farmers all big brand seeds are going up within the next month ish.

I have recently acquired a second site of allotments by giving free labour. Giving us even more growing space. My pantry is running down but I do have a good stock of cereals, pasta and stocks/herbs. I also as mentioned have access to a lot of land and I have an abundance of seeds and sets so get growing. With the land comes access to chickens for eggs and on one site we actually have cockerels so we could breed and grow out our own chickens. As well as a bee hive.

Yoyo2021 · 24/01/2023 23:05

un employment is actually on the up quite rapidly.

our local holiday parks are only opening for feb half term then shutting again due to no bookings. Past few years they have been all year round.

KnittedCardi · 25/01/2023 11:58

PrincessConstance · 15/01/2023 10:16

I work in manufacturing. Orders are thru the roof. Every company says the same.
Dp works in domestic plumbing. Business is booming.
Renumeration is high.
Both industries are struggling with recruitment and retention.

I believe some sectors are over-saturated and we will see a correction.

DH is trying to recruit into IT positions, all levels. Very few apply, those that do, often don't turn up for interview. The are really struggling to get staff. He was so pleased the other day that a young woman accepted an apprentice IT role the other day, so good to be able to offer these, but again, so few applicants.

xogossipgirlxo · 25/01/2023 16:32

KnittedCardi · 25/01/2023 11:58

DH is trying to recruit into IT positions, all levels. Very few apply, those that do, often don't turn up for interview. The are really struggling to get staff. He was so pleased the other day that a young woman accepted an apprentice IT role the other day, so good to be able to offer these, but again, so few applicants.

Wow, we're on the other side. Husband is trying to apply for IT jobs (junior position)and it's extremely hard, as very littler offers (mostly for mid and seniors). He spoke to someone recently and this guy told him getting your first job is definitely the worst and he was struggling too. Husband even took promotion at work he wasn't planning to stay for long at, but pay rise was tempting. I am still hoping he can pursue his dream of having career in IT. Don't know is this the area we live in or what? 😕Not many interesting IT jobs in Leeds to be honest. Much better in Manchester and in London.

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