To Think People Have No Idea How Covid Messaging Has Changed

[Sunshineguy]

The CDC, HHS, and WHO are warning that Covid infections can get progressively worse and that the risk of Long Covid increases with each reinfection. Are people aware of this change in messaging?

Sure. You sound just like the well informed, reasoned and well researched kind of voice we should be listening to. I'm sure your background in microbiology & your specialism in immunology backs up your hypothesis there.

Not entirely- my father's death certificate was heart attack, but there were three other factors also listed, including his terminal prostate cancer. The cancer would have killed him in the end, had the heart attack not got there more quickly. However, without being already ill from the cancer, he may have survived the heart attack - we'll never know. (I can't remember what the other things were - it was well before covid, so wasn't that.)

I can see covid could be similar - someone dies primarily from a heart attack or stroke, but without covid as well, they may well have recovered. And possibly without covid, some would not have had any cardiovascular event I the first place.

@notknowledgeable it is not the same thing 4 or 5 things might be on the death certificate the major reason someone dies might be heart disease or cancer or dementia but someone could have all 3 and covid on the death certificate so 50,000 having covid on death certificate is not the same as 50,000 having principle cause of death as covid, anymore than 50,000 having dementia on death certificate means it is principle cause of death. it is well known that deaths from covid are generally in people with 2 or more co-moribundities relatively few people have covid as the sole cause of death on the certificate

Dying with Covid is obviously not the same from Covid.

You have a mild case of Covid, go out for a walk and end up dead after being hit by a bus. Your death certificate might mention Covid but obviously that is not what killed you.

Similarly thousands of people, particularly the elderly, have died from long term serious illnesses whilst at the same time testing positive. Covid was not a contributing factor to their deaths but it is on the death certificate so it’s assumed that it was.

I had terrible brain fog after my last bout of COVID. I do find it very concerning as it was much worse than the previous times I've had it, while the physical symptoms were more mild.

As a result I'm wearing a mask on crowded transport, avoiding/moving away from people who are sneezing or coughing, and not spending time indoors in busy pubs or cafes with no airflow. I'm lucky that I work mostly outside, or alone when inside. I still mix with family and friends obviously, but I'm trying to minimise risk at the same time.

I'm looking forward to being able to socialise outside again once it's warmer. But I will sacrifice a bit of indoor socialising if it means I can continue to use my brain as I want and need.

in 2022 the last completel year for death statistics it is too soon for 2023 to be available approx 46,000 were covid deaths ( not necessarily sole cause) for the death rate to be 1% it would mean 4.6 million infections, this would mean that only 7% of population caught covid at any point over the winter, considering that 5% were considered to have the infection on any given day that is not true.
also deaths from upper respiratory tract infections are grouped together flu is not separated , the closest figure you can get is that flu accounted for approx 15000 of these deaths at a death rate of 0.01% this would mean that 150 million infections in uk which is more than double the total population again impossible
take up of vaccines for both is similar so vaccination would not be a huge factor

only 6% approx of death certificates have covid as sole cause of death, at peak of pandemic before vaccinations etc covid was considered the main cause of death in the majority of cases but in 90% of cases something else was mentioned too

If that happens your death certificate is not going to mention Covid as a contributing cause of death FFS.

Unless you have injuries you might have been expected to recover from and then get pneumonia or sepsis from the Covid or something in which case the Covid probably did kill you.

actually several people battled to have covid removed from death certificate as it was incidental rather than causative. in some cases covid may have hastened the end but if the patient had not had severe dementia or heart disease or COPD or cancer then covid probably would not have killed them they would have recovered. Also in people with several comoribundities it would not always be kind to aggressively treat covid just like the very elderly or ill getting pneumonia / flu it is left to take it's course while keeping patient comfortable

If you are hit by a bus, your death certificate would NOT mention covid.

On a population level, it IS the same - that is the point of a death certificate - it tells you the likely cause of death . And on a population level, it is accurate

Why would you need a background in micro anything to know the simple fact that schools ARE largly ignoring the issue of covid or covid testing?

We (parents) are not being advised to test. We're told to encourage our kids to go into school and try and work though illness unless they're throwing up. In which case it's a 48 hour rule.

You wouldn't. But that's not what I was referring to, obviously. It was the claim "it's just another winter virus"

I’m diabetic so have been offered vaccinations at every stage. I took took the initial doses and the booster the following year but have not had one since. Last November I caught Covid for the 3rd and undoubtedly the worst time.

1st case, didn’t even realise I had it, back in the days when we had to test before heading into the office. Was surprised to get the positive and just worked from home for the next week.

2nd time I had a cold, but if a sore throat and again worked perfectly fine from home throughout.

3rd time (1st without any immunisation) I was floored for around 3 weeks. Initially Covid then other viruses snuck in off the back of it. I still do not feel completely well again yet.

Everyone has become so blasé, we absolutely need to learn how to live with Covid but that shouldn’t come at the cost of underestimating what it can still do

I took it that the poster meant the OP was scaremongering.

Strangely I'm enjoying the word mongering all or a sudden 😂

of course if you are hit by a bus covid will not be mentioned now ( but there were some instances at beginning of pandemic) as well as reporting people being in hospital for covid when they were actually in for a broken arm and happened to have positve covid test. The scottish Health minister had to apologise for this as he implied several children were hospitalised in glasgow for covid when in actual fact none of them were in hospital for covid but for other reasons

at a population level it is not accurate as deaths can be counted more than once if 18 % of deaths are from dementia and 8% from covid the death certificate may mention both but it will not be counted in both as the % of deaths have to add up to 100% so no-one can be in two categories though often 3 or 4 factors will have contributed to the death this is why it was said that 90% of people with covid on death certificate had other things on it, covid may or may not have been the major factor for someit may mean that they had chronic heart failure but Covid was the major factor for others it will be the acute heart failure that was the main problem exacerated by covid, recently only 6% of cases where covid is mentioned is it the only thing on the death certificate as everything else was OK or too mild to have been a real factor

so in 2022 46,000 people had covid as the main cause of death but only 2760 of these had covid as the only cause of death and hence so 43,240 had another contributing factor of a magnitude sufficent to make it onto the death certificate ie it was not incedental

I think that most people don't actually care about long covid.

Really? I think you would change your mind if it happened to you. There are people who are still suffering after four years - unable to work, in bed most of the day. I had it for three months, it's awful.

Oh dear god.

@kkloo

You’re being very short sighted about this.

The long term consequences from covid are vastly greater and less well defined than flu.

Take this for example: 40% increase in risk for autoimmune disease.

https://www.livescience.com/covid-19-linked-to-40-increase-in-autoimmune-disease-risk-in-huge-study

I would believe this because following several covid infections I am now under investigation for autoimmune disease as a direct result.

But also because I have a science background and have read around the lit a lot since this began.

Covid is not flu.

To be dismissive is to be idiotic.

@Justkeeepswimming

I think it's you who's being short sighted. I got 'long flu'. That's a thing too you know. Potentially any virus can have long term effects on any of us.

I didn't say that covid was flu, I said for some it was like a flu or milder, which is true.

I haven’t read the whole thread but there is enough to see that the naysayers are still at work.

Do you realise how selfish it is to carry on like this when you, largely, have absolutely no education in biology at a higher level or any related field?

Joe Bloggs should not be shouting the odds over this. They should be following guidance to keep themselves, their families, friends and the wider public safe.

I hope anyone reading this who is unsure takes the guidance of professionals on board - don’t base your convictions on anything other than official qualified sources such as WHO, gov websites, NHS, CBC, NIH and so on.

Do not listen to some twerp on the internet whose only qualification is the school of life and an excess of free time to be spouting rubbish.

It's not even Long Covid that's the worst problem or series of problems they are warning the complacent about - it's ongoing cardiovascular and neurological effects, resulting in heart attacks, strokes, type 2 diabetes, Parkinson's, and god knows what else - it's permanent disability and premature deaths. But hey ho.

They should be following guidance to keep themselves, their families, friends and the wider public safe.

Which guidance are you referring to?

What are you doing? Isolating etc

@kkloo

Again, what qualifications have you got?

You are correct that viruses can trigger autoimmune and other long term consequences.

What we are seeing with covid is that those risks are higher, more pronounced and increase with increasing number of infections.

As covid is novel we do not yet know the full extent of how bad it is but it is not looking to be good.

Don’t you get bored of being wrong about vaccinations? Why do you think you know better than the millions of doctors and HCPs and scientists who studied for years and are telling you that you should be vaccinated against diseases?
To what end would they be pushing you into a vaccination? Why do you think they want you to be vaccinated?

@EasternStandard

https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus

Everyone should be following this, doing what is applicable for them. And modifying their behaviour relative to guidance updates.

Fine that’s pretty easy. No covid restrictions, no testing and I don’t need a vaccine