To ask if we’re heading for another lockdown?

[TreeLine6]

So covid cases are rising and like clockwork, the likes of independent sage are back in the media calling for ‘protections’ like masks, isolation and social distancing to “avoid full lockdown”.

Is it time to reintroduce some measures like the rule of 6, a cap on large events numbers and maybe distancing and early closure for hospitality as independent sage are calling for?

Personally I feel that with vaccines and treatments, we are now in the best position we’re going to get with covid and would be very reluctant to comply with further measures, that themselves cause enormous harm.

@Youthinkyoureuniqueyourejustastatistic

the measures worked and you did prevent it.)

Except that's not true, is it?

The measures didn't work and caused more harm in the long run

I don’t understand why people attribute the difficulty of getting NHS treatment to lockdown.

Lockdown didn’t cause the lack of NHS treatment it was covid that cause it because

1. NHS resources were diverted to emergency covid care
2. NHS staff are/were ill with covid l/long covid and unable to work.
3. The lack of investment from the government in social care and the NHS.

Lockdown didn’t prevent treatment, covid meant the NHS was distracted and redeployed. The NHS was and is always open. It’s just on its knees and ignoring covid because you’re bored of it won’t make that better. It will make it worse

I honestly can’t remember the last time I had a conversation in real life about Covid

The idea that the covid only focus of lockdowns didn't negatively impact the nhs is nonsense

I think the only way there will be another lockdown is if hospitals become overwhelmed with covid cases. Even if there is a massive increase in cases that doesn’t mean this would happen as most people are vaccinated and as a result won’t need hospital treatment.

I think if cases continue to rise, encouraging people to get their booster, wear masks in busy areas and reintroducing the 10 day isolation period would be sensible (with sick pay).

i am just getting over covid and am 50 and triple vaxed. I tested positive 1st Sept and was really ill and barely able to get out of bed for a fortnight. At that point I needed antibiotics for the cough and after that had a flare up of gastric symptoms which were all put down to covid. I had 4 weeks off work. It is not ‘just a cold’ for many. It was like flu but lasted way longer. It is easy to see how it could be life threatening for an elderly or vulnerable person and how hospital admissions will increase as cases rise. I tend to think I am overdue a booster though as it is a full year since my last one and I am waiting to be called. I know a few of people who have recently had it for the first time and more who are on their 2nd or 3rd time. While I often read on here that people have stopped talking about covid, that certainly isn’t my experience.

My local Costa only just removed the Covid screens yesterday. It is a joy to actually be able to chat and not shout.
I hope we get at least a short while before they have to go back up.

I dont know if another lockdown would. e sensible / worthwhile

However, no government would try to impose it, as the public wouldn't comply, having seen Boris etc treating previous rules with contempt

@IncessantNameChanger i don’t think anyone is suggesting any government can control biological mutations. How could you respect someone who expects you to lock down from your own family, not attend a funeral while they are off sneaking in bottles of booze for their own parties, celebrating birthdays with their mates (at Westminster), blatantly lying about it to you (and clinging on to power with fingernails after).

I think a lot would be the same and not comply but if they do things like close the schools then people don’t have any choice, they can’t send in their kids

Nope, the last lockdown ended months and months ago, to be precise it was July 2021 when all restrictions ended.
Time to get on with life.

They absolutely worked.

They wouldn’t have needed to be so stringent if more smaller measures had been prioritised in Jan 2020 (testing capacity built up etc).
We have always been on the back foot due to government apathy and thus the restrictions needed were more harsh.

There is little evidence the restrictions caused more harm. They were a blunt tool and a bit ridiculous in some cases.
The best way to avoid this is to take small measures like wearing a mask in crowded public spaces. That really doesn’t hurt anyone apart from butthurt YouTubers.

I do enjoy all the internet experts who can barely string a coherent sentence together, but believe they have a better understanding of science than people who have PhDs and a lifetime of experience in science. It is spectacular arrogance.

lmao - I hope they never go back up, mainly because covid is aerosol spread so they actually make it more likely to increase covid infection because they prevent good air flow.
Screens are good for droplets but covid will just be blown around a screen.

Honestly the emphasis should be completely on clean air with air changes. Whether this is bought about by opening windows and doors/hepa/masks it doesn’t matter.

How did they work?

There's lots of evidence they caused harm.

In England.

In Scotland we had masks in retail, theatre etc until Easter Monday. THIS year, 2022. Many universities were online all through last year.

Totally agree it's time to get on with life but let's not pretend there were no restrictions from summer 2021 as that wasn't the case everywhere.

@Thepeopleversuswork

this absolutely isn’t a reason for draconian and unenforceable population level measures

I never once said it was!!
You haven’t even properly read my post. I don’t think there should be another lockdown at all - I was agreeing with people.

My post was replying directly to the poster who seemed to think Covid was no big deal when it nearly killed my son. I think it’s ok to say you don’t think another lockdown is right but still acknowledge Covid can be dangerous.

Viruses tend not to evole to be lethal as if you have long incubation to death it favours transmission. 100% mortality in a short incubation doesn't favour transmission. That's all.

There is zero conscious desision making in evolution or mutation. If there was we could all decide not to have cancer.

Evolution in scientific terms is all happy accident. Mutations happen randomly and the best ones become dominant over generations.

But it's not true to say disease mutate to be weaker, that simply isn't true and suggests there is consciousness. It could mix with a lethal strain of SARs next and become more deadly.

A long incubation and high fatality also works well for microbiology disease reproduction which is what drives its evolution as the high transmission is the key to success.

Anyway that's all beside the point. We could all die very soon because of the soth Atlantic abnormally but you don't see governments talking about that. Both covid and that are beyound our power to reverse. It's out there now and it's not going away. I do feel that the vast majority of prolockdown thinkers belive if you lockdown long and hard enough it could go away. But that's just not true. Unless you was OK with never traveling for anyone ever and to except not leaving the house for a month for any reason, not to buy food, not to receive cancer or heart attack treatment etc, which is too high a price as it would kill more than covid.

Don't be ridiculous.

Why would you want to add to the harms done to children?

Unless we have a change where death rates go up to a massive level and the treatments we now have start to fail, why would we do it to ourselves?

I wear a mask when I go to supermarket. I look like a paranoid weirdo. But I know cases are on rise plus flu season is coming up so I’d rather try to avoid catching anything if possible

Ffs no.

There are so many reasons why another lockdown is a bad idea but the main one is that the hospitality industry couldn't survive.

SAGE do not currently publish any forecasts. And no, they wouldn't get disbanded in the situation you describe. The members of SAGE are not employed by the government, nor are they paid for attending SAGE meetings (other than expenses). They wouldn't lose their jobs if SAGE was disbanded.

Independent SAGE consistently forecast worse outcomes than SAGE and called for tougher, longer lockdowns. In my view, Independent SAGE is thoroughly discredited.

I would support mask wearing. Hardly onerous for most people.

I wouldn't comply with a lockdown. We are vaccinated now, I don't see what more you can do unless you are willing to live with periodic lockdowns forever.

Plus, cost.

I thought the only masks that were effective were the FFP2 or 3 masks? The standard blue disposable masks are pretty useless against Covid anyway.

One very simple and easy step is to re-introduce masks. It shouldn't have to be done but it seems unless it's advised then hardly anyone does it. On my commute in to London this week I took the tube and train and I was one of only about 4 other people within sight, that was masked.

It's such a basic thing to do. I read on Twitter of the Sage scientist (Chris someone) who went to give blood this week and she was appalled that she was one of the only few that was masked. Nursing staff were saying "oh we don't have to now"

It's quite unbelievable how stupid some people are.