Independent sage condemn lifting of restrictions

[RocketFire7]

I see that independent sage have condemned the government’s plan to lift restrictions this week, saying that it’s not driven by the science.

Are the vulnerable being thrown to the wolves as they are claiming?

However on the other hand independent sage have been against every reduction in restrictions that’s taken place. They’ve also called for lockdowns in December 2021, September 2021 among others.

Are they correct in this situation?

twitter.com/independentsage/status/1494629238598733831?s=21

Sage and their modelling have got it wrong all the way through the pandemic. They should be disbanded ASAP.

Sage has been hugely pessimistic since day one and got it wrong every single time with their scaremongering tactics to grab headlines. They also do not look at the wider picture in terms of balancing risk to economy, services, mental health etc. they simply look at Covid in isolation and then make dramatic bullshit predictions.

Ignore them.

Exactly, this shower of self-appointed experts have an exceptionally narrow focus. They aren't thinking about your kids' education, or your job, or teenagers at university or any of the other thousands of factors which are relevant.

@TiddyTidTwo

Lifting restrictions will throw the vulnerable under the bus. Sage are right. The economy also is part of this. Never the Twain shall meet on this one.

All us mere mortals can do is try our best. I'll still wear a mask, social distance and won't be attending any packed events. If I get covid I will self isolate but I'm lucky that I'm in a position to do so.

And I say again, people like you who only care about one type of vulnerable people make me furious.

Those of us vulnerable to mental health issues who were comprehensively fucked during lockdown clearly don't matter.

Why can't the CEV just be more healthy? Like I was told to just be more resilient? What's the difference?

@MedSchoolRat

"appearance fees from BBC and ITV"

They don't pay appearance fees to academics -- at least, they didn't pay me! Or the people I know who have been on a lot.

Actually, I tell a fib, I did get one appearance fee in last 2 years. Quite a surprise. Normally no one offers or expects, I just didn't say no when that was offered. Media appearances can take a lot of time. The fee was enough to have a decent meal on, nothing amazing. Ditto newspaper & magazine interviews & documentary contributions, we give those "for free".

No fees from Sky, Times Radio or local radio, either.

iSAGE... oh well. the less said the better. They meant well.

The prof at my dd uni has had a lot of articles in papers which I assume he got paid for. Also he is apparently working from home which is not in the uni town thereby saving money on that. With other uni staff working on campus his indie sage position is very hard to sympathise with at this stage

@BestKnitterInScotland

Exactly, this shower of self-appointed experts have an exceptionally narrow focus. They aren't thinking about your kids' education, or your job, or teenagers at university or any of the other thousands of factors which are relevant.

Exactly.

And they're not showing their working out on this one either. Where is their cost benefit analysis on the money needed to continue free testing vs what else it could be done with, the impact on mental health, the economy, and how these all factor into public health and spending?

The problem is, this government don’t care about your mental health either.

They just care about getting people back to work, grinding them down and paying them just enough to keep their landlords ringing up the profits.

@Iggly
I didn’t say he made sense. Boris doesn’t make sense.
People want to believe Boris on this because they like the idea of no more restrictions. So they’re not engaging their brains and therefore not critically assessing what he’s saying.

It's your post that doesn't make sense. Not Boris. You don't like him so youre just posting speculation as fact, contradicting yourself as you go.
People can make decisions based on their beliefs and experience. They don't have to like or trust Boris to agree with him. If he said that standing in the rain makes you wet, I'd agree with him regardless of my personal feelings. You on the other hand would try to find a way to prove him wrong.
Personally, I will still wear a mask and carry on social distancing, but just because people will behave differently to that, does not mean they're not engaging their brains. They've just looked at their experience and at other countries and have come to a different conclusion to me.

@LyricalBlowToTheJaw
I think this is the most frustrating thing about Independent Sage and to a lesser extent SAGE. Their recommendations are made in a vacuum where the sole focus is covid with no cost benefit analysis. No professionals make decisions in that way - not doctors, lawyers, engineers etc. Most professionals constantly have to weigh up whether a potential solution is practical, cost effective and may have other detrimental effects etc. The skill in these professions is often about recommending the best solution given the external constraints and downsides / risks.

Anyone, if given the brief of trying to reduce covid cases on an unlimited budget with no consideration as to the non-covid consequences, would come up with a recommendation for more covid restrictions on an indefinite basis. But that shouldn't be confused with a sensible policy suggestion.

Independent SAGE haven't even considered wider healthcare impacts - even as simple as if we took £2bn a month and spent it on trying to clear some of the NHS backlog e.g. by paying for people to go to private hospitals, how would that compare to maintaining testing for another month.

[quote Nightlystroll]@Iggly
I didn’t say he made sense. Boris doesn’t make sense.
People want to believe Boris on this because they like the idea of no more restrictions. So they’re not engaging their brains and therefore not critically assessing what he’s saying.

It's your post that doesn't make sense. Not Boris. You don't like him so youre just posting speculation as fact, contradicting yourself as you go.
People can make decisions based on their beliefs and experience. They don't have to like or trust Boris to agree with him. If he said that standing in the rain makes you wet, I'd agree with him regardless of my personal feelings. You on the other hand would try to find a way to prove him wrong.
Personally, I will still wear a mask and carry on social distancing, but just because people will behave differently to that, does not mean they're not engaging their brains. They've just looked at their experience and at other countries and have come to a different conclusion to me.[/quote]
How am I contradicting myself….

I’m saying Boris wants to say he’s the first. And then pointing out he won’t be.

Where’s the contradiction?

And my point is that Boris can’t be trusted so we should absolutely critically assess what he is saying.

Saying it’s ok to lift public health measures on a novel virus is not quite the same about making assertions about rain making us wet. One is a universally known fact. The other is an area of science where few of us are actual experts, least of all Boris Johnson.

I would like to see the science to support his assertions. I don’t think that’s an unreasonable ask, especially if the likes of the WHO, BMA and NHS are saying we should express caution.

Caution can mean just phase out over the next couple of months. It can mean a variety of things. If there is public health support for his plans then that’s fair enough! For example, Boris Johnson says we should get booster vaccines. As that’s backed up by evidence and the medical profession then absolutely, yes, I have done. But would I take just his word for it….?

Independent SAGE serve no purpose. No one's asked for their input to inform decisions. We have SAGE for that.

They're operating in some mythical universe where the only thing of any importance is suppressing covid. That kind of one dimensional thinking isn't even slightly helpful for policy making.

As it stands, all they're doing is stirring up shit for the media to happily capitalise on. There really is no point at all in giving them airtime.

I would like to see the science to support his assertions

'The science' (shudder) says we've passed the peak of omicron, hospitals coped, covid as a public health emergency has significantly abated.

'The science' is probably never going to be able to tell you that there is no threat from covid to anyone at an individual level. Sorry.

They condemn everything which makes life worth living .

@TheKeatingFive

I would like to see the science to support his assertions

'The science' (shudder) says we've passed the peak of omicron, hospitals coped, covid as a public health emergency has significantly abated.

'The science' is probably never going to be able to tell you that there is no threat from covid to anyone at an individual level. Sorry.

Who said I wanted to see that the threat to the individual has passed?

You’re seeing things which I’m not actually saying.

I don’t mind if now is the right time to lift measures provided that he has the evidence to back it up 🤷🏻‍♀️

We have measures to suppress numbers in order to protect the nhs. Is the nhs able to cope now? Things like that are important to know.

I don’t mind if now is the right time to lift measures provided that he has the evidence to back it up

The evidence is ...

We're past the peak of omicron
Hospitals have coped with the numbers.

What further information are you looking for?

But we do have the evidence to back it up! Overall deaths are no more than normal for the time of year. Hospitalisations are dropping. The NHS is coping. There's your evidence.

What if I have critically assessed what the PM is doing, and while I think his reasons are completely self-serving, I agree with the outcome? Is that just dismissed as the wool being pulled over my eyes and I’m refusing to see it because the outcome is one I want? What about all the times decisions were made that I didn’t agree with, but other posters did? Was the wool being pulled over their eyes (because as far as I’m concerned, everything the PM does is going to be for reasons that are about what benefits him, whether I agree with the outcome or not)

That's what I think RichTea Although I think he's doing it for completely the wrong reasons it's still the right thing to do.

[quote Chessie678]@LyricalBlowToTheJaw
I think this is the most frustrating thing about Independent Sage and to a lesser extent SAGE. Their recommendations are made in a vacuum where the sole focus is covid with no cost benefit analysis. No professionals make decisions in that way - not doctors, lawyers, engineers etc. Most professionals constantly have to weigh up whether a potential solution is practical, cost effective and may have other detrimental effects etc. The skill in these professions is often about recommending the best solution given the external constraints and downsides / risks.

Anyone, if given the brief of trying to reduce covid cases on an unlimited budget with no consideration as to the non-covid consequences, would come up with a recommendation for more covid restrictions on an indefinite basis. But that shouldn't be confused with a sensible policy suggestion.

Independent SAGE haven't even considered wider healthcare impacts - even as simple as if we took £2bn a month and spent it on trying to clear some of the NHS backlog e.g. by paying for people to go to private hospitals, how would that compare to maintaining testing for another month.[/quote]
I can understand it more with SAGE because they model what they're told to model and that's the parameters within which they operate. Independent SAGE don't have that excuse.

Until I see the medical profession backing him up, then I’m sorry but I remain sceptical.

Even if they said “give it another month and slowly ramp down”, then that would be fair enough.

But they are not. Which makes me think he’s going against the advice.

Why are people happily accepting what Boris says? Because they want it to be over. Be wary of accepting something because it’s something you want to hear.

Always always always critically assess and check the assumptions being made, especially by a lying Prime Minister.

He did it with Brexit, he’ll do it with covid.

And have people forgotten about long covid? I bet they think it’s all made up and in peoples minds.

Even if they said “give it another month and slowly ramp down”, then that would be fair enough.

Previous approaches were slow because we are in a different place now. Omicron peak has passed, hospitalisation is reducing and excess deaths are normal - this means the reduction is happening already.

@TheKeatingFive

Anyone who understands science says the same. Of course it's too soon but Johnson needs a distraction from his lies and deceit.

And for the 17th time, what about the other countries doing the same thing (Denmark, Norway, Sweden, ROI)?

Are they doing it for Boris too?

The fact that four countries are also lifting some of their restrictions (and are they doing it to the degree that England is doing? I note ROI still requires self-isolation for people with Covid after the 28th Feb, for example) doesn't mean that Johnson isn't lifting restrictions for his own benefit.

Four countries lifting some restrictions at the same time is quite a small number given there are 195 countries in the world. Sweden didn't have that many restrictions for much of the pandemic anyway.

@MarshaBradyo

Even if they said “give it another month and slowly ramp down”, then that would be fair enough.

Previous approaches were slow because we are in a different place now. Omicron peak has passed, hospitalisation is reducing and excess deaths are normal - this means the reduction is happening already.

Another month wouid take us out of the winter virus season, and perhaps see cases fall to under 300 per 100k. Those are both important factors

@Iggly

And have people forgotten about long covid? I bet they think it’s all made up and in peoples minds.

Just stop this. Just because some people don’t agree with you on one thing doesn’t mean they don’t on another.