Anyone want a perpetual lockdown

[beentoldcomputersaysno]

I often see posters accused of wanting continual lockdowns, despite their post not suggesting it. I often assume it's done to deflect or antagonise posters who suggest a health measure(s) to adapt to life post-2019. However, is there anyone who posts on this board that does want perpetual lockdowns?

The fact that asking these kinds of questions makes people label me as far right wing is a little ludicrous really! I'm a life-long Labour voter but in this case I think they had a real chance to fight for the poor, the young and the voiceless and they completely screwed it up. They should have been holding the government to account, fighting for our children's right to an education but instead they buried their heads in the sand and I find this pretty unforgivable

Yes, that one is very hard to forgive. Especially as they don't currently appear to be sorry.

Japan has been very interesting throughout but other countries have used masks as they have?

Do other countries not do ventilation or are they alone in this

Do other factors impact - lower obesity, T cell from SARS, cultural differences

I would like to know more about why they’ve done well but I’d not choose to have lower vaccine rates, as they do, here as I think we need vaccines and boosters to do the heavy lifting and we’d have worse outcomes relying more on masks and ventilation

This intrigues me though. We have lower restrictions and mitigations and lower rates - why would that be

Marsha Lower obesity definitely, but they do have a higher population of older people. Immunity from SARS is a possibility, but SARS didn’t take off in Japan in the same way it did in China and Hong Kong so you wouldn’t think there would be a lot of immunity. Ventilation is thought to make a big difference so it’s possible that other mask adherent countries aren’t ventilating as well. Could also be better primary care? There’s an insurance based health care system but it’s affordable, you can see a doctor the same day, and there’s usually a choice of primary care clinics in a bigger town/average city.

Other possible theories, from the sensible to the bonkers - could be cross-immunity from a similar enough mild coronavirus circulating before covid (although I haven’t seen evidence for Japan specifically), or natural genetic superiority (that one from a rather bonkers, racist ex prime minister). It will be interesting to see if they ever nail it down to a specific reason.

@VikingOnTheFridge

The fact that asking these kinds of questions makes people label me as far right wing is a little ludicrous really! I'm a life-long Labour voter but in this case I think they had a real chance to fight for the poor, the young and the voiceless and they completely screwed it up. They should have been holding the government to account, fighting for our children's right to an education but instead they buried their heads in the sand and I find this pretty unforgivable

Yes, that one is very hard to forgive. Especially as they don't currently appear to be sorry.

Labour have been an utter, utter disappointment. How on Earth are you a left-wing party facing a health crisis exacerbated by poverty, poor employment conditions, poor housing situation and chronic underfunding for the NHS, and what you go with is “we want to close schools and borders even MORE than the Tories!”?

Other possible theories, from the sensible to the bonkers - could be cross-immunity from a similar enough mild coronavirus circulating before covid

I think this is the most plausible. I also wonder if high omega 3 consumption could have played a role (i.e. regulating of the body's inflammatory response). Hopefully we will know in time.

Labour have been an utter, utter disappointment.

I think during covid there wasn't really left and right, it was more authoritarian and libertarian.

@Puzzledandpissedoff

Which countries? Countries with our health inequalities, age profile and obesity rates? Countries that closed their borders in time?

Had to comment on closing borders "in time" since that's more subjective, but the US (and Florida in particular) is one I know very well, having a LOT of seniors, a massive obesity problem, some interesting health inequalities and just 65% fully jabbed

And Florida's had no lockdowns since the first - but then, they also have a more advanced grasp of civil liberties, at least in theory

Fair comment, but Florida appears to have a considerably higher death rate than the UK 3073 versus 2313 deaths per million.

Florida appears to have a considerably higher death rate than the UK 3073 versus 2313 deaths per million

Quite right, but rightly or wrongly that's the path they've chosen rather than trashing so much else
Obviously the US healthcare system's very different, but back with the UK it's entirely possible our own death rate will "catch up" when other deaths from a largely closed NHS are factored in - except a way will probably be found for those "not to count" for political reasons

@Puzzledandpissedoff

Florida appears to have a considerably higher death rate than the UK 3073 versus 2313 deaths per million

Quite right, but rightly or wrongly that's the path they've chosen rather than trashing so much else
Obviously the US healthcare system's very different, but back with the UK it's entirely possible our own death rate will "catch up" when other deaths from a largely closed NHS are factored in - except a way will probably be found for those "not to count" for political reasons

Are you suggesting that our health service would have functioned better if we’d had more cases of Covid, (and more traffic accidents, and more drunken revelry accidents)? That the health service was closed for normal use wasn’t my experience and isn’t something I’ve heard from family in other parts of the country. I too would be interested to know to what extent it happened.

Thanks for the thoughtful explanation, @Emergency73. However, do you mind if I take issue with one of your points:

I think what troubles me is, and I think it happens in difficult times - people are pushed into extreme thinking styles - perhaps out of confusion/vulnerability.

From my own experience of Covid, it’s not at all true. Certainly not in personal experience — my own views are one of the most thoroughly researched positions I’ve ever reached outside of my professional work. Prior to covid, I’d never have identified as anything but left leaning.

It’s dangerous to assume those who are not coherently expressing themselves are confused or vulnerable. It could be simply that they don’t have the ability (lack of time, education, etc.) to express an independent coherent view, or they simply don’t have the motivation, yet still are of the opinion that things have “not been quite right”, and are joining whatever cause seems to support them.

To your point about the funding of some of these groups, it is interesting and it has given me pause. I wonder how much of that is a hangover of those topics being politically untouchable, creating a void to be filled.

I am in Japan.

The number of CASES has always been far, far higher than the official stats--people seldom test here. Very very different to South Korea.

The low number of SEVERE CASES and FATALITIES is very real, though. If something were being covered up or if they were just failing to correctly diagnose the COVID fatalities, we'd be seeing big excesses in the total mortality figures, as most countries have. But we haven't. Total deaths from all causes in Japan have been lower than usual, for most of the pandemic. The lack of deaths and serious cases does appear to be genuine.

Those of us who live here are also slightly baffled and there are a lot of different theories, but a few ideas:

1. The population has very low rates of obesity - this is a huge factor, without any doubt. It's also not a policy that you can just export to other countries
2. Japanese doctors are very good at treating pneumonia in the elderly
3. (Speculative) Smoking has been the norm in public indoor spaces in Japan until VERY recently - only just getting curbed these last few years, and still so many smoking restaurants. Restaurants etc. are in the habit of ventilating these spaces well and have some heavy duty ventilation equipment going - probably reduced severe cases, esp in first wave.
4. The universal masking probably did quell both case numbers and severe cases (by reducing viral dose) in the initial phase of COVID, when we had variants that were easier to control. Not much good with omicron - but by the time we got to omicron, most people were vaccinated.
5. Japanese habits are probably conducive to less spread and reduced viral doses, esp in the early stages with less contagious variants. People live alone in large numbers, tend to have a lot of physical distance from each other, seldom touch, don't hug often, don't often talk to strangers, and are just very risk averse and "safety-ist" by nature - they adapted habits even without a formal lockdown.

By the way, what I mean is that these are good cultural traits for suppressing a pandemic, not that they are good cultural traits in general.

They are bad traits if you are a demographically declining and isolationist power with a rapidly aging and shrinking population which desperately needs people to start being more spontaneous, hooking up, forming families and having more kids, taking risks, going overseas, doing new stuff, accepting immigrants into their country, encouraging foreign tourists to bring in revenues and doing a whole bunch of stuff like that - stuff which the Japanese now seem less likely to do than ever, now that COVID has cemented people's ideas that overseas and foreigners are dirty/dangerous and that the best life is one where you are terribly safe and quiet and interact with others as little as possible. The birthrate has continued to plummet and is showing no signs of the recovery that has been seen in many western countries.... I am grateful in many ways for having a fairly normal life here for the past couple of years. But the Japanese response to COVID and the hardening of attitudes towards outsiders, innovation and risk makes me really pessimistic about the future of this country.

Forgive me for going off at a slight tangent; it's just I feel like at the moment, people are often tending to assume that cultural practices that are good for reducing COVID risks must be good practices to adopt in the long run, and do not really think about the fact that trade offs are common in life.

Very interesting post greenteafiend

Are you suggesting that our health service would have functioned better if we’d had more cases of Covid, (and more traffic accidents, and more drunken revelry accidents)?

Put simply, no - but TBH I wouldn't really know where to start with such an odd question

I'm genuinely very pleased if you were still able to access healthcare in your area, and do agree it would be good to have a proper investigation into the extent to which this happened, and more especially why
However I'd be amazed if this happens, for the simple reason that those with vested interests are unlikely to want it

@greenteafiend To be clear, I wasn’t suggesting that we should become Japan! Having lived there I completely agree with some of the negative points you’ve raised, especially the awful treatment of other Asian nationality migrant workers. That predates the pandemic of course, but the pandemic has certainly worsened it.

What would be interesting to see is if a middle ground would work - after all, even when people in Japan appear to have more distance, there are still plenty of crowded bars, trains, schools and workplaces where the virus could spread. More so than in some other countries, due to Japan not having lockdowns. Other countries that are also cited as having high numbers of people who live alone, are more spread out and not a huggy culture (Sweden? Denmark maybe?) had numbers higher than Japan.

It’s quite positive that masks and ventilation (and two vaccines) seemed to be enough to keep cases low despite people not always being able to socially distance.

However, like you say, the isolationist policies and border control are a huge problem and it could be that those policies alone were keeping covid relatively at bay, more so than masks and ventilation. But it’s telling that even when cases have previously risen, they have never run out of control, which suggests that something within Japan, rather than the borders, is keeping numbers low.

It’s certainly a puzzling one!

I hear you! I feel privileged in many ways to have been here, and don't want to be one of those people who always sees the faults of whatever country they are in and cannot see any of the good things. That's no way to live!

But I also wish people in countries like the UK would have more confidence in themselves too. The UK vaccine program was really really good. And there is something to be said for people being gung ho about actually getting stuck in again and wanting to "live" properly. M MIL still won't go inside a restaurant or travel anywhere that isn't completely essential. She says what a shame it is that she will never be able to go abroad, which she was originally thinking about doing. Just the very idea seems unthinkable to her. I know so many old Japanese folks like that, just content to live tiny little lives. They didn't need a lockdown because they just locked themselves down. My own parents.... have always been very responsible and not reckless, but have progressively moved back to normality - Dad went to France on a business trip (he still works!), they see friends in restaurants, they just took a trip to Cornwall and stayed in a shared house with friends, all of that. I'm happy to see it.

I don't think the closed borders are doing anything to control omicron as it is spreading like mad anyway (ventilation and masks don't seem to be very effective against omicron -- thanks goodness we are all well vaccinated now). It is indeed a mindset and a psychological thing now. It's certainly not going to do Japan any good in the long run.

greenteafiend That’s so sad about your MIL, it’s not good for her is it, especially when you can see there’s so little risk. It’s good that Japan hasn’t locked down every time they find a case like NZ/Australia, but you also want people not to feel they have to do self imposed lockdowns. You must feel a bit frustrated/sad that she’s not making the most of the freedom she has.

My PILs over there have had to keep working (MIL works in a sector essential for keeping Japan running - a cake shop ) and I think that has really helped. They’re just keeping on as normal and luckily haven’t been too worried, but I don’t know how representative they are of people as a whole. They’re generally very chilled about everything anyway!
We’re just desperate for the borders can open so the kids can see their grandparents again.

It will be interesting to see what happens with Omicron. Cases definitely spiked, but now seem to be dropping slightly. Will the drop continue or rise again? If it continues dropping, why? I mean, we’ll never know but it is interesting!

[quote Emergency73]@TheKeatingFive

You can’t just dismiss as a tired tactic, you need to think why.

It boils down to individualism v’s collectivism.

A collectivist response IS the correct response to a global pandemic unless you want an unfathomably high death toll globally and hospitals worldwide unable to function.

Life comes first.

Left wing and right wing governments agree on this worldwide. Except I suspect our lovely right wing government care less about life then they should.

If you want - and want to encourage others to vote for a government that advocate what you want. Who are you/they going to vote for? Like I said - it’s almost word for word - reformUK manifesto. Or slightly diluted by the likes of the right wing Telegraph.

And I certainly DO NOT want the UK moving in that direction. So YES I will speak out against it.[/quote]
Since when did understanding that the impact of lockdowns was far more brutal for poor and marginalised people than for the smug, pious puritans simpering about how the 'earth would heal with less capitalist activity' make you a rightwinger?

Your definition of 'collectivism' seems to be far more 'make sure that EVERYONE suffers'.

I agree with you Green re positives re U.K. but I think it’s this site in many ways amplifying negativity

Interesting re Japan too

Very interesting and informative post @greenteafiend . Incidentally I heard a programme on radio 4 a couple of weeks ago about the demographics in Japan. One contributor said that a type of National Service in which young people must work in care homes was a solution… not a bad idea for here, methinks….

Yeah, it is. We need to recognise caring for the elderly as the important and difficult work that it is, and improve conditions for those in the sector. Not force unwilling adolescents on some of the most vulnerable in society.

It doesn’t matter how much you improve conditions; not many want to do it and staff turnover is huge. Having had both Pil long-term in care homes I know that even with excellent pay and terms of service, the bottom line (pun intended) you are dealing with wiping bums and feeding and cleaning people, by the law of averages often not very nice people. To imagine that every care worker is going to be a saintly vocational worker if only you paid enough is preposterous. The options are importing overseas staff infinitum (because it’s ok for them to do it), robots or some sort of national citizens service.

Since when did understanding that the impact of lockdowns was far more brutal for poor and marginalised people than for the smug, pious puritans simpering about how the 'earth would heal with less capitalist activity' make you a rightwinger?

But who is it who actually dies of Covid most of the time?

@QueBarbaridad

Since when did understanding that the impact of lockdowns was far more brutal for poor and marginalised people than for the smug, pious puritans simpering about how the 'earth would heal with less capitalist activity' make you a rightwinger?

But who is it who actually dies of Covid most of the time?

The ones whose health had already been damaged by poverty/exclusion/discrimination; the ones who were more likely to live in substandard, overcrowded housing and to work in crowded or public-facing sectors without PPE or sick pay (ie those who often had to keep going to work even when they had, or thought they might have, Covid). The point is that the great moral panic put these people more at risk and penalised and stigmatised them. The solutions were always going to be ventilation, adequate PPE and sick pay not snivelling bullshit about what was and was not 'essential', nor harassment of those sitting on park benches or chatting with a friend in the street.

@DottyHarmer

It doesn’t matter how much you improve conditions; not many want to do it and staff turnover is huge. Having had both Pil long-term in care homes I know that even with excellent pay and terms of service, the bottom line (pun intended) you are dealing with wiping bums and feeding and cleaning people, by the law of averages often not very nice people. To imagine that every care worker is going to be a saintly vocational worker if only you paid enough is preposterous. The options are importing overseas staff infinitum (because it’s ok for them to do it), robots or some sort of national citizens service.

The saintly vocational stuff is a strawman. You can however at least make the pay and conditions sufficiently decent that there aren't people who wouldn't mind doing it but are prevented from doing so for reasons of income or childcare. That would be the lowest hanging fruit.

It's still an appalling and dangerous idea to force teenagers into wiping arses. How do you think the ones who don't want to do it are going to react and how do you plan to deal with the welfare implications of that?

This is before we consider the reality that our current cohort of young people have been completely fucked over in the last couple of years, in the fight against a disease that posed less risk to them as a cohort than to the large majority of the population, and are now going to have the privilege of paying for it. If I were an 18 year old now and you told me that after all this, I was going to be doing National Service in something I may or may not have any interest in because my free will and life plans mattered less than that of anyone older than me, I'd join the nearest riot. If none were available, I'd start one myself. And you'd be lucky that's all I was doing.

Basically, it's a terrible idea all round.

The solutions were always going to be ventilation, adequate PPE and sick pay

You don’t think reducing contacts might have an impact?

Not that I don’t think those things are important.