Anyone want a perpetual lockdown

[beentoldcomputersaysno]

I often see posters accused of wanting continual lockdowns, despite their post not suggesting it. I often assume it's done to deflect or antagonise posters who suggest a health measure(s) to adapt to life post-2019. However, is there anyone who posts on this board that does want perpetual lockdowns?

Which countries? Countries with our health inequalities, age profile and obesity rates? Countries that closed their borders in time?

Had to comment on closing borders "in time" since that's more subjective, but the US (and Florida in particular) is one I know very well, having a LOT of seniors, a massive obesity problem, some interesting health inequalities and just 65% fully jabbed

And Florida's had no lockdowns since the first - but then, they also have a more advanced grasp of civil liberties, at least in theory

Tbh I was more interested in discussing the issue in hand rather than being misrepresented, daft goading and a bun fight.

So I found something better to do.

@TheKeatingFive

A collectivist response IS the correct response to a global pandemic

You can state that in capital letters all you like, but it doesn't acknowledge the fact that the collectivist response asked far more of some people than others and in most cases, the people who it asked the most of had the least to gain.

So I understand completely why they people who were sacrificing least and gaining most from this collectivist response don't want a conversation about it. But I don't think it's going to be that easy im afraid.

In order to protect the covid vulnerable, lots of other vulnerable were comprehensively shoved under the bus. We're only starting to talk about it now, but I for one am having that conversation now and think we need to tease out the real moral complexities of what went on.

Yep. And it's going to keep being said, regardless of how strong some people's faith is that lockdown was the lesser of two evils, despite the absence of evidence or the impossibility of making that assessment at this stage.

Also, right wing governments the world over choose life is, erm, a take.

@Emergency73

Tbh I was more interested in discussing the issue in hand rather than being misrepresented, daft goading and a bun fight.

So I found something better to do.

Can't tell if that's a response to me talking about the tumbleweed on the schools thread when I asked where the evidence was? I didnt recall you being on that thread but if you were, don't imagine anyone is fooled by a conveniently timed better thing to do when it came to backing up your claims.

If it isn't a response to me, as you were.

@TheKeatingFive

It is a really important conversation to have, I agree.

But to save those under one bus, could the resulting impact have been to have many millions - possibly billions under a tanker.

It would be interesting to count years of life lost and not just lives lost, to covid and to the response to it. So someone dying with covid at 83 may have lost one year. Someone aged 33 whose illness cannot now be cured may have lost 50

An incredibly valid point, and one I doubt will ever be addressed or studied in any meaningful way
Because to do so would expose the damage for precisely what it is, and that may not be politically palatable

It is a really important conversation to have, I agree.

I'm glad you think so. Genuinely.

But to save those under one bus, could the resulting impact have been to have many millions - possibly billions under a tanker.

Maybe (though billions is quite a number). The problem is that there was never any attempt to analyse the multiple and serious consequences of lockdown so that informed decisions could be made.

Every single restriction should have been analysed carefully for the costs and benefits it conferred, with much more emphasis placed on balancing the response and where possible, finding ways to mitigate rather than restrict. Some of the measures taken in the U.K. made very little (if any) difference and had huge potential consequences. But lots of people ended up as collateral damage.

Yep. And it's going to keep being said, regardless of how strong some people's faith is that lockdown was the lesser of two evils, despite the absence of evidence or the impossibility of making that assessment at this stage.

Agreed. I don’t know if it will ever be possible in the near future to draw any conclusion about whether lockdown was the lesser evil, but any attempt to do so has to be honest about the harms of the other evil.

And we should have been attempting to do this right from the start. I find it really worrying that there was so much political and public push towards “well we’re in lockdown now, decision made, so no point going into detail about whether it’s the best approach.” I remember on here in about May/June 2020, people getting really angry at the idea anyone was wanting an exit strategy from lockdowns, like even asking the question about how we get out of the position we have out ourselves up to was somehow immoral and/or ignorant.

The problem is that there was never any attempt to analyse the multiple and serious consequences of lockdown so that informed decisions could be made

Exactly - and for the reasons I've said there probably never will be a proper analysis

I genuinely do get that, in the initial panic over a new virus, there was limited time to make measured decisions, but that doesn't justify lockdowns becoming the go-to with each new wave. Trouble is, as things turned out, they were all too busy feathering their own nests to care (and that's something else I doubt will ever be gone into properly either)

I genuinely do get that, in the initial panic over a new virus, there was limited time to make measured decisions, but that doesn't justify lockdowns becoming the go-to with each new wave.

Totally agree with this. March 2020 was a unique situation and extreme measures as short term policy were merited. However the analysis into their impact should have started then

One of the harms that’s going to be hard to measure for a long time is the damage done to public trust in public health generally by public health taking such an authoritarian approach. Are people going to be more or less likely to listen to advice on eg STD prevention, childhood vaccinations, recommended exercise and alcohol levels, and so on, when it comes from the people who made it illegal for you to see your mum and kept “just a little bit longer”-ing you into two years of restrictions?

@GoldenOmber

One of the harms that’s going to be hard to measure for a long time is the damage done to public trust in public health generally by public health taking such an authoritarian approach. Are people going to be more or less likely to listen to advice on eg STD prevention, childhood vaccinations, recommended exercise and alcohol levels, and so on, when it comes from the people who made it illegal for you to see your mum and kept “just a little bit longer”-ing you into two years of restrictions?

Absofuckinglutely!

And as part of this, we'll need to consider the impact of covid regulations that were disproportionately enforced against ethnic minorities. There's a lot written already about how discrimination leads to alienation, and that has an impact on willingness to engage with health authorities. We know this. It's one of the reasons vaccine rates in black and Asian people are lower. What experiences do we think those older black and Asian people who don't want vaccination now had with the power of the state when they were younger? How might that have shaped their attitudes, their trust? These things are connected. How are we going to prevent that cycle from being repeated, after we put in place pandemic legal infrastructure that was inevitably going to be disproportionately enforced against black and Asian people?

As part of this, we'll need to consider the impact of covid regulations that were disproportionately enforced against ethnic minorities

Were they though? I don't pretend that local experience is everybody's, but there are whole areas of my own east midlands city where enforcement wasn't even attempted because of cultural sensitivities - we're told Leicester was the same, according to posters on here

Interestingly, there was almost no response to her posts, just as with mine when I worried about the impact of "Covid passes" and their possible disadvantage to communities already disadvantaged enough

[quote Emergency73]@TheKeatingFive

It is a really important conversation to have, I agree.

But to save those under one bus, could the resulting impact have been to have many millions - possibly billions under a tanker.[/quote]
We'll never really know I suppose but looking at countries like Sweden I think it is highly unlikely. It has been fascinating to watch how things have played out since the government refused to react to the last batch of hysterical modelling from Neil Ferguson/SAGE. Wasn't it 6,000 deaths a day they were predicting if we didn't lockdown immediately? The fact they got it so badly wrong makes me very much doubt any of their earlier predictions were accurate either.

The fact that asking these kinds of questions makes people label me as far right wing is a little ludicrous really! I'm a life-long Labour voter but in this case I think they had a real chance to fight for the poor, the young and the voiceless and they completely screwed it up. They should have been holding the government to account, fighting for our children's right to an education but instead they buried their heads in the sand and I find this pretty unforgivable.

@GoldenOmber

One of the harms that’s going to be hard to measure for a long time is the damage done to public trust in public health generally by public health taking such an authoritarian approach. Are people going to be more or less likely to listen to advice on eg STD prevention, childhood vaccinations, recommended exercise and alcohol levels, and so on, when it comes from the people who made it illegal for you to see your mum and kept “just a little bit longer”-ing you into two years of restrictions?

I think I read in the Guardian the other day that MMR rates have fallen. Canary in the coal mine for what you're talking about?

@GoldenOmber

One of the harms that’s going to be hard to measure for a long time is the damage done to public trust in public health generally by public health taking such an authoritarian approach. Are people going to be more or less likely to listen to advice on eg STD prevention, childhood vaccinations, recommended exercise and alcohol levels, and so on, when it comes from the people who made it illegal for you to see your mum and kept “just a little bit longer”-ing you into two years of restrictions?

That's exactly how I feel! Particularly with the frankly sinister drive to vaccinate everything that moves multiple times over. The fact that SAGE are STILL recommending vaccine passports for festivals so that young people are coerced into getting jabbed (in the papers today) terrifies the life out of me. I have to keep reminding myself of all the wonderful NHS staff who've helped me and my family over the years as this helps me to keep faith in the whole set up.

Some of us are still under restrictions

Where I live in South Australia we are still to 10 people at a household gathering. Singing and dancing is banned, no visitors at hospitals, density restrictions in hospitality and masks mandated everywhere inside. Now our premier has said that boosters will begin to wane in April and we’ll need to rely on ‘other measures’ against Covid.

We still have 7 days isolation for close contacts, even if boostered.

My mental health is in tatters but apparently that doesn’t matter.

@nojudgementhere

No. I’m not labelling you as politically extreme. I can see quite clearly from what you’ve posted that you and @TheKeatingFive care deeply about life.

I think what troubles me is, and I think it happens in difficult times - people are pushed into extreme thinking styles - perhaps out of confusion/vulnerability.

I detest the likes of the Telegraph, and on social media I’ve seen things shared that I had no knowledge of before Covid. If you look at the founding members of these thinktanks, they all have one thing in common which is extreme conservatism.

Robert Malone has had an extraordinarily detrimental impact, to the point that he was quoted by an apparently educated person on Question Time.

All factors need to be considered. And I do have sufficient faith that the best minds worldwide are looking at this carefully, and considering the implications globally.

However our UK government are appalling. They did not sufficiently support social care prior to the pandemic, and so it is now on its knees.

I don’t think the answer is to feed our very difficult situation with more negativity and fear.

Where we really shine as human beings is where we work together for the common good, where we learn from failure and move forward to make things better for the whole. I think we can make a difference by our votes, and speaking out if we have a Labour government who are not representing left wing politics in the way they should.

And I certainly have not lost faith in our NHS.
I don’t like to speak anecdotally - but my Mum was lucky enough to be saved by an incredible, highly skilled surgeon who battled for hours to save her life in a complicated operation. This surgeon said at the time how she was being pulled away from her cancer patients to treat Covid patients. There are doctors etc who are faced with these challenges on a daily basis worldwide.
And again - anecdotally - I was faced with a situation in 2020 where I had to balance the mental health of my children, losing my job and caring for a CEV. I prioritised the CEV and I still think it was the right thing to do. I realise other people have been faced with far worse hardships that will shape their thinking however.

Really sorry, bluetongue. Here’s hoping your state sees sense as more and more highly vaxxed countries start dropping all their restrictions.

@bluetongue

Some of us are still under restrictions

Where I live in South Australia we are still to 10 people at a household gathering. Singing and dancing is banned, no visitors at hospitals, density restrictions in hospitality and masks mandated everywhere inside. Now our premier has said that boosters will begin to wane in April and we’ll need to rely on ‘other measures’ against Covid.

We still have 7 days isolation for close contacts, even if boostered.

My mental health is in tatters but apparently that doesn’t matter.

💐for you @Bluetongue. Try to stay positive if you can. Things seemed very dark and hopeless over here too until very recently with vaccine passports etc. seeming inevitable. It's been surprising how quickly things have turned around and I really hope the same happens for you soon.

Depending on your viewpoint this is quite positive: Japan doesn’t have great take up for the booster/third dose but Omicron still looks to be steadily dropping. Japan didn’t do big lockdowns. Schools were closed for weeks rather than months, and I think MIL had maybe one week off work when her workplace was closed. Otherwise life has been pretty normal.

The dropping rates (and consistently low rates before) are thought to be due to fairly universal mask wearing and very good ventilation in crowded indoor spaces.

There is a way without lockdowns which - possibly apart from the first few weeks in March 2020 - have been incredibly destructive, and without reliance on multiple booster doses.

mobile.twitter.com/ToshiAkima/status/1490221791398494213

(Not perfect though - don’t get me started on the rigmarole of getting a pcr test and the draconian border rules which mean we can’t go back though, or I will cry.)

Is it dropping in Japan? This is yesterday

www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/02/05/national/covid-tracker-feb-5/

The nationwide tally of new COVID-19 patients surged to a fresh record of over 100,000 on Saturday

Marsha Should say for clarity the R number is thought to be dropping (sorry, that was in the link but rather complicated by it being in Japanese and the original tweet using different terminology.) and is thought to soon drop below 1. So by your link, cases look to be surging/peaking, but as the R number drops, the number of infections will also drop. Finger crossed, anyway!

And to be honest, even if I’m completely wrong and you’re completely right, the fact that they’ve continued to have low cases/deaths by prioritising masks and ventilation rather than lockdowns, is a very hopeful thing.

Given the majority of posters here are against lockdowns, I thought that would be good news but mumsnet is a funny old beast.

@Puzzledandpissedoff

As part of this, we'll need to consider the impact of covid regulations that were disproportionately enforced against ethnic minorities

Were they though? I don't pretend that local experience is everybody's, but there are whole areas of my own east midlands city where enforcement wasn't even attempted because of cultural sensitivities - we're told Leicester was the same, according to posters on here

Interestingly, there was almost no response to her posts, just as with mine when I worried about the impact of "Covid passes" and their possible disadvantage to communities already disadvantaged enough

Yeah, they were disproportionately likely to be fined. Which is as you'd expect really. But of course, given the absolute impossibility of enforcing the covid regulations on the whole population, there's going to be lots of black and Asian people who broke them and weren't fined. In my own mainly white local area there just wasn't any meaningful attempt to enforce at all. Couldn't have been, really.

Bit of a clearer image of the Japan stats. The date is American style, so 1/11 at the bottom right of the graphs means “January 11th” not “November 1st”. The categories at the top of the right hand graph are where the tests were carried out (or processed possibly) so medical centre, hospital, university, clinic etc, not age groups or anything useful!

You can see the slight drops in late Jan/early Feb on both graphs.