Cases on the rise again?

[Garysmum]

Don't know if it's just me but looking at stats and clicky map - many local areas are on the rise again - some quite significantly so in the 50-100% rise in a week bracket.

I'm SE where there was a huge rise around Christmas which had started to fall but now it's climbing again.

Hospital numbers are rising too, which you would expect.

As I am CV, this is concerning with all the things giving a slither of protection gone.

I wonder what could happen if numbers get completely out of control - if people continually reinfect each other or we get a new variant. I assume most people don't care - they just want to get on with life and won't worry too much unless they are personally badly affected - for example if an elderly relative ends up in hospital or their kid gets long covid and can't sit exams.

Presumably they are vaccinated. The hospital cases on the news were unvaccinated dopes so who cares about them. Their choice
Still plenty of vaccinatedi n hospital. Alot less than statistically expected but still lots. About 39% in ICU vaccinated and as many as 3 in 4 in regular hospital beds.

@CovidForChristmas

Hospital numbers are not rising, based on the 7 day average. I’m not sure why you think that. It’s the key indicator now. Number of new cases are somewhat irrelevant. The point of lockdowns was always to protect the nhs and prevent deaths. I wouldn’t be surprised if they stop reporting daily figures of new infections soon.

Case numbers are not that irrelevant given we haven’t uncoupled hospital admissions from case numbers. The case numbers just tell us what hospital admissions will be doing in a few weeks time. They are an early predictor of what services hospitals will have to cancel in order to accommodate covid patients.

Some countries use that early warning system we’ve decided not to. Admissions are flat now because they basically represent what was happening to cases a few weeks ago. Now the 7 day average is starting to go up again, I’d imagine admissions will in about 2-4 weeks too.

We could do something about that so we can start getting waiting lists down. As it happens it turns out we’re just as ok with people dying of other stuff because they can’t get treatment as we are of them dying with Covid so it probably won’t matter much to most people.

Aren’t they back to homeschooling and businesses shut in Canada?
Sounds awful. I’d much rather be over here.

Agree that lurching from one lockdown to another is a bad strategy (causing an inevitable spike when you release). But we’ve thankfully moved on from that strategy here. Canada does not seem to have moved on from that strategy and all the damage it causes.

The numbers are utter horseshit since the necessity to get a PCR to confirm a positive LFT were abandoned. Many scientists predicted that Omicron wasn't over and that the numbers would shoot up again when schools went back - and they have.

Both DS and I are currently positive. DS's school (small private primary) has had to close for a week because so many pupils and teachers have got it that keeping it open wasn't feasible or safe. Omicron is ripping through primary-aged pupils at the moment, because none of them are vaccinated, then they're infecting family members who are.

So whatever you do, don't believe the case numbers figures that get trotted out each day. Anyone who is CEV should probably stay at home if they can.

@zafferana

The numbers are utter horseshit since the necessity to get a PCR to confirm a positive LFT were abandoned. Many scientists predicted that Omicron wasn't over and that the numbers would shoot up again when schools went back - and they have.

Both DS and I are currently positive. DS's school (small private primary) has had to close for a week because so many pupils and teachers have got it that keeping it open wasn't feasible or safe. Omicron is ripping through primary-aged pupils at the moment, because none of them are vaccinated, then they're infecting family members who are.

So whatever you do, don't believe the case numbers figures that get trotted out each day. Anyone who is CEV should probably stay at home if they can.

ONS is more accurate and did show a pretty big fall from 4.3m to 3.3m or around that

But cases in lower age groups are likely increasing

Overall whether next ONS shows fall we’ll see

Also younger age groups don’t drive hospitalisation figures so measures will decrease

When is the next ONS update?

@zafferana - things are a lot brighter for CEV people now. They don’t need to live in complete fear. Two CEV family members got covid over Christmas & accessed the new covid drugs (the each had different ones) & covid was extremely mild for them! Both these people were triple vaxxed but blood tests showed a mediocre reaction to the vaccines.

The new drugs are brilliant. They’ll be the thing that makes covid liveable for the vulnerable. They’ll get even better as time goes on too!

[quote Bobholll]@zafferana - things are a lot brighter for CEV people now. They don’t need to live in complete fear. Two CEV family members got covid over Christmas & accessed the new covid drugs (the each had different ones) & covid was extremely mild for them! Both these people were triple vaxxed but blood tests showed a mediocre reaction to the vaccines.

The new drugs are brilliant. They’ll be the thing that makes covid liveable for the vulnerable. They’ll get even better as time goes on too![/quote]
That's great to hear @Bobholll.

[quote Bobholll]@zafferana - things are a lot brighter for CEV people now. They don’t need to live in complete fear. Two CEV family members got covid over Christmas & accessed the new covid drugs (the each had different ones) & covid was extremely mild for them! Both these people were triple vaxxed but blood tests showed a mediocre reaction to the vaccines.

The new drugs are brilliant. They’ll be the thing that makes covid liveable for the vulnerable. They’ll get even better as time goes on too![/quote]
I hope so, and that this is rolled out quickly. It must be horrible for those who are CEV.

[quote Bobholll]@zafferana - things are a lot brighter for CEV people now. They don’t need to live in complete fear. Two CEV family members got covid over Christmas & accessed the new covid drugs (the each had different ones) & covid was extremely mild for them! Both these people were triple vaxxed but blood tests showed a mediocre reaction to the vaccines.

The new drugs are brilliant. They’ll be the thing that makes covid liveable for the vulnerable. They’ll get even better as time goes on too![/quote]
Yes same here. Close relative had the same mild experience over New Year. We all held out breath. but they'd had 4 jabs and a half an hour drip of antivirals in the 5 day window and out the other side.

@merrymelodies

From over here in Canada, it looks as though England (and possibly the rest of the UK) has gone from one extreme to the other: from total lockdown and fear-mongering to now no masks at all and neither is doing much good.

Wear a mask (preferably an N95 or similar). Get vaccinated and boosted. Keep a 2 metre distance from others. Wash your hands regularly. It isn't fail proof but it's better than nothing at all.

We have a critical mass of low information people in the UK who don't have much of a clue about anything scientific. Lack of education and critical thinking skills has becoem serious problem (like in the US).

It really is sad just how far this country has fallen.

Many people pointed out that cases would explode in educational settings due to the lack of vaccinations in the 5 to 11 age group back in December if we opened up too fast.

Those same low information folks stated:

"We are against vaccinating our kids"

Later on.....after a masssive increase in infections just as was predicted, those same low information folks:

"Who cares. We need to get on with it"

People with this kind of simple-minded decision-making process do not belong anywhere near deciding any part of public policy.

Unfortunately for us in the UK, the politicians keep pandering to these exact same people to stay in power.

I lived in Canada for many years and it is a much more sane and reasonable country.

Given that it's typically those from minority ethnic backgrounds that have higher rates of vaccine hesitancy, are you comfortable branding minority groups "low information" and having "lack of critical thinking skills".....
......or is it only white people who are thick anti-vaxxers?

'Low information folks'

Hmm @BambinaJAS you don't sound very intelligent yourself!!

@Notlabeled

Given that it's typically those from minority ethnic backgrounds that have higher rates of vaccine hesitancy, are you comfortable branding minority groups "low information" and having "lack of critical thinking skills"..... ......or is it only white people who are thick anti-vaxxers?

Your argument makes no logical sense.

If vaccination rates are low, you are going to end up with more infections and deaths. Which is precisely what is happening right now among those folks in the BAME cohorts.

In this scenario, you want more NPIs, not less (lke now)

Public policy right now is being guided by the PMs desire to stay in power at any cost, which means he is throwing red meat at the people howling about restrictions.

Those people howling about restrictions are mostly vaccinated actually. In their minds vaccinated = protected, so "lets just get on with it".

This is totally insane, simplistic and wrong of course, and the people that are paying the price for all of this are the primary aged children, teachers, and those in the community that are CEV.

Wut????

I asked if you consider ethnic minorities to be poorly educated, low information and lacking in critical thinking?

You were moaning about thick anti-vaxxers, I pointed out that vaccine hesitancy in the UK at least, is almost double the rate among certain minority groups compared to majority population.

So I ask again, are minority groups "lacking critical thinking"??? Your words.

No cases coming down at the moment..dashboard today has cases, hospitalisations and deaths all down abs ons has cases down. I understand some people are very committed to the idea of cases rising but my son has covid said cases must be going up is t actually a scientific study or the basis for making a national policy!! Oh and 1.4 million tests registered yesterday higher than most of the autumn when we had confirmation pcrs so again stats which are freely available not backing up the argument.

@Notlabeled

Wut????

I asked if you consider ethnic minorities to be poorly educated, low information and lacking in critical thinking?

You were moaning about thick anti-vaxxers, I pointed out that vaccine hesitancy in the UK at least, is almost double the rate among certain minority groups compared to majority population.

So I ask again, are minority groups "lacking critical thinking"??? Your words.

You seem to have issues with comprehension.

I specifically stated in my comment that it was 5 to 11 year olds.

Many parents are against vaccinating their children.

These same parents are the same ones howling about the current situation with schools.

This was totally self-inflicted because it was completely avoidable.

Where are these 'howling' parents??

@BambinaJAS Indeed where are these howling parents?

I am one of those parents you refer to who will not vaccinate my kids, both primary, for very logical reasons. The vaccines have only reduced transmission for a very short period of time after each vaccine. Therefore as we can see, as much as the vaccines are working to reduce severe disease which is great, they are clearly not reducing transmission or we would not be in this situation now.

My dd is currently off with Covid. I am not howling about schools!!

@JanglyBeads

Scientists are suggesting we could have a second omicron wave fuelled by the lack of protections in schools.

Two lineages of Omicron BA1 and BA2. Both Omicron but can be infected with both one after the other 😟

@Garysmum

Maybe it would spread faster but what about those of us who are CV with kids at school or CV/CEV kids. Just can't win.

Are a lot of these outbreaks at primary schools? I don't have any idea how many teens have actually been vaccinated in any case - I expect could be 30-50% in average school but I am making that up

Yes, primary schools are definitely feeling it right now. I work as a supply teacher and have been booked for 5 weeks, just to cover Covid absences. Many of the classes have 5/6/7 children off with confirmed covid. My own dc's school there are 5 off from the class with covid and more across the school.

Two lineages of Omicron BA1 and BA2. Both Omicron but can be infected with both one after the other 😟

Where did you get that from? Bit worrying if true, but I'd expect any omicron infection to provide very good immunity from another sub variant - just like it how it gives good protection against earlier strains. Not saying it's impossible, but it's very early for any stats to prove it as well.

The big question is how long that immunity lasts. If it's 6 months, we could well have a new pandemic every winter.

We don’t have a robust vaccine yet as efficiency is reliant on boosters.
Variants haven’t stopped.
It’s not the flu.

I think you have some quite strange ideas about seasonal flu.

Flu doesn't have a robust vaccine either (and is dependent on annual boosters) and it mutates every winter.
The IFR and other indicators around covid actually do look... increasingly seasonal-flu like? Not saying we are there yet, but I think we're getting close.

BA.2
note Denmark

@user1477391263

*We don’t have a robust vaccine yet as efficiency is reliant on boosters. Variants haven’t stopped. It’s not the flu.*

I think you have some quite strange ideas about seasonal flu.

Flu doesn't have a robust vaccine either (and is dependent on annual boosters) and it mutates every winter.
The IFR and other indicators around covid actually do look... increasingly seasonal-flu like? Not saying we are there yet, but I think we're getting close.

IFR will end up higher in all probability vs the flu

So, a virus as transmissive as the measles (highest on record), but with 100x the mortality (c0.1% vs 0.001%) And about 5x the mortality vs the flu (0.1% vs 0.02%). Worth stating that the flu has a transmission factor of 1.28, while covid (omicron) is at 10+ already.

A good country to check for IFRs is Iceland as they test randomly (so do capture many asymptomatic cases).

They have an IFR of c0.08%

www.covid.is/data

I am going with "not good" here, specially since you can catch covid and the flu at the same time, making winters even more dangerous now for those groups at risk.