Cases on the rise again?

[Garysmum]

Don't know if it's just me but looking at stats and clicky map - many local areas are on the rise again - some quite significantly so in the 50-100% rise in a week bracket.

I'm SE where there was a huge rise around Christmas which had started to fall but now it's climbing again.

Hospital numbers are rising too, which you would expect.

As I am CV, this is concerning with all the things giving a slither of protection gone.

I wonder what could happen if numbers get completely out of control - if people continually reinfect each other or we get a new variant. I assume most people don't care - they just want to get on with life and won't worry too much unless they are personally badly affected - for example if an elderly relative ends up in hospital or their kid gets long covid and can't sit exams.

We want to "get on and educate your kids". But thats not happening at the moment. It's a complete shit show in my school and has been for a few months.

@UnmentionedElephantDildo

All they'll do is slow down the spread at best... And that's all isolation will do too

Yes, that's precisely the aim - flattening and spreading peaks is the best way to ease pressure in NHS and that's the single most important factor.

Lower levels in general circulation are also good for the CEV - they may still be facing a life with limits, but at least it is a life, not indefinitate isolation

Flattening may be required if infections threatened to overwhelm healthcare, but that's not the argument being made. The argument is that flattening with masks helps the CEV in a school situation.

Given Omicron's transmissibility, this just leads to the "worst of all worlds".... With the risk of infection being high enough to remain a threat to those who with CEV for an extended period.... But never high enough to burn through quickly and die down to low levels until the next variant arrives....

The result is that those with CEV always feel under a high level of threat, and constantly express that threat to others, but those who aren't CEV begin to get compassion fatigue - which may be selfish; but it's human nature unfortunately.

A situation that requires the population to remain permanently "vigilant" forever isn't sustainable, however "right" that vigilance may be morally.

"Those that are CEV then stay away from school whilst the outbreak goes through, which it will do pretty quickly - 2-3 weeks - without isolation to prolong the process"

Do you actually work in a school? The big spike in numbers might be over 2 or 3 weeks but infection levels can be high for much longer than that. Start of January I had a third of my form class out but most classes of 30 have had 3 or 4 kids out for the best part of 2 months now.

I'm not sure shielding the vulnerable for 2 weeks will work like you to think especially once we openly accept having people with active infections in school. (As opposed to now which is people with active infections who don't take lft's or come in any way which is not what most families do).

Another thought is for teachers etc - if schools have to accept active infections (which seems the plan) - then what about CV teachers/ Teachers with vulnerable household members.

@Garysmum

Another thought is for teachers etc - if schools have to accept active infections (which seems the plan) - then what about CV teachers/ Teachers with vulnerable household members.

Well they are vaccinated, they are boosted and that’s life It will be the same when I’m older and at risk by my age- I won’t curly up in a ball, or worse still demand everyone young and not at risk do

Our local secondary has 3 years out and the remaining GCSEs years struggling to stay in with significant absences.

Ironically it may not be the CEV who suffer worse now, it will be middle aged women who seem particularly prone to long covid. But we're a good 3-6 months off assessing that damage

A pandemic doesn't end just because we want it too or its politically expedient to a PM

And we won't know all the effects of covid for years even in a routine case. A virus I caught as a teenager is thought to be a triggering factor in my disability. It took 30 years to show up.

Our local school has a lot off sick but literally no one seems to be actually unwell. Personally I think it’s time to stop reporting numbers, stop routine testing and only stay off if you’re actually ill like it was pre covid.

Yes and now schools don't require the child to have a pcr just a positive lft the true number of infection will be unknown.
But saying that I know of 12 kids infected this week alone and there all just displaying mild cold symptoms and if they didn't need to isolate would be well enough for school.

@Okbutnotgreat

Our local school has a lot off sick but literally no one seems to be actually unwell. Personally I think it’s time to stop reporting numbers, stop routine testing and only stay off if you’re actually ill like it was pre covid.

this is my experience too but seems we are fairly unique on mumsnet!

@Garysmum

Another thought is for teachers etc - if schools have to accept active infections (which seems the plan) - then what about CV teachers/ Teachers with vulnerable household members.

If they're CEV, they remain off as well for 2-3 weeks... Of course that would cause disruption, but it would hardly be worse than the current situation!

@GirlInACountrySong

so they are rising....well what to do?

what would you like to have happen op....its not as serious as previous variants, most people are just getting on with it

This

So boring to have to say this time and time again.

@walksen

"Those that are CEV then stay away from school whilst the outbreak goes through, which it will do pretty quickly - 2-3 weeks - without isolation to prolong the process"

Do you actually work in a school? The big spike in numbers might be over 2 or 3 weeks but infection levels can be high for much longer than that. Start of January I had a third of my form class out but most classes of 30 have had 3 or 4 kids out for the best part of 2 months now.

I'm not sure shielding the vulnerable for 2 weeks will work like you to think especially once we openly accept having people with active infections in school. (As opposed to now which is people with active infections who don't take lft's or come in any way which is not what most families do).

??

I've said the current system is stringing things out.

You confirm that this is indeed the case.

And then you argue that my proposal of there being no mandatory isolation when infected is the same as the current system of mandatory isolation?!?

@walksen

Start of January I had a third of my form class out but most classes of 30 have had 3 or 4 kids out for the best part of 2 months now.

Yes, and that's happened because of isolations stopping it spreading through the classes in one go, as it goes in dribs and drabs... You're making my precise point for me, not undermining it!

Why do you care OP? Covid isn't going away, we need to learn to live with it like flu and colds.

Endless tracking case numbers is pointless and the worry won't do your immune system any good.

@Garysmum

In my region - we ended up with say 2000 cases per 100k pop, that dropped to 800 cases and is now back at 1250 ish. (numbers illustrative) - so a huge drop with cases more than halving and now bouncing back quickly.

The lack of protections in schools is a nightmare for me. I wish I could pull all my children out.

Why?

What else would you like to see people do?

This virus is here to stay. There is a vaccine to at least lessen the effects for the majority of people.

Life has to go on.

this is my experience too but seems we are fairly unique on mumsnet!

I think people are increasingly coming to this position. I am, and I've been in favour of most of the restrictions to date!

The CEV do need protecting , and that bothers me.... but what we're doing now isn't really working for anyone, and masks etc are just slowing the spread somewhat, not really creating a "safe Covid-free" environment for those that are CEV.

As such, it's pointless and counterproductive... A whole load of disruption for the sake of feeling like we're trying to control Covid, when in reality it's futile.

This.

@OnlyFoolsnMothers and what if you're 37 with blood cancer?
And the cancer is curable but if you get covid you're likely to be very unwell, die, or delay your treatment
CEV are normal people of all ages

And I'm not boosted either yet. I've had 3 vaccines and my 4th isn't due yet

Well I'm in London and cases were falling, I also work in a London hospital and admission are certainly dropping. However school, my daughter is in yr 5 and 1/3 of her class have it. That's the most I've known in one class. So a possible upward climb again? I guess time will tell.

Cases are broadly stable, but when you drill down into local areas, localised flare ups are causing big increases at that level.

I think the Christmas and New year peak was mainly down to adults socialising, probably mainly 18-35 age group. Now we're starting to see the effect of kids back at school. Obvious they'll spread it rapidly due to lack of vaccination in that age group, to have any damping effect at all. Whether that goes on to cause a big surge in older age groups is debatable. My guess is that so many people have already had Omicron in the Christmas/NY wave that there is a reasonable amount of herd immunity out there to slow things down a bit. I anticipate case numbers hovering around 100k for several more months, which feels low compared to what we've just been through, but is still higher than we've seen until recently.

From over here in Canada, it looks as though England (and possibly the rest of the UK) has gone from one extreme to the other: from total lockdown and fear-mongering to now no masks at all and neither is doing much good.

Wear a mask (preferably an N95 or similar). Get vaccinated and boosted. Keep a 2 metre distance from others. Wash your hands regularly. It isn't fail proof but it's better than nothing at all.

And avoid indoor crowding or socialising in large groups.