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Worried for my unvaccinated soon-to-be 18 year old

88 replies

AccessNoAreas · 02/01/2022 10:48

My DS has chosen not to be vaccinated. He and his CV dad both got Covid in August and came out the other side (my DD 14 and myself didn't catch it while living in the same small house).

Both my DH and I are now triple vaccinated - our DD was hesitant but consented and had her 1st before Xmas along with the flu vaccination.

My DS is an intelligent boy and has been on lots of sites researching vaccine types, efficacy and looking at the stats. He was happy with the JCVI's acknowledgement a few months back that
"At this time, JCVI is of the view that the health benefits of universal vaccination in children and young people below the age of 18 years do not outweigh the potential risks."

And he was worried by the incidences of clots and myocarditis in young males (even though he knows that the incidence of these conditions in someone who has a bad case of Covid is statistically higher and that they've stopped giving AZ to his age group to minimise the risk further)

We've had lively discussions in the house and he supports that the elderly and vulnerable should have the vaccine and is glad we are triple vaccinated. But he is getting increasingly upset and cross about the patronising ads being targeted at his age group that he concluded are basically saying, if you want any sort of social life, you need to get the vaccination.

He is 18 this month in a few weeks. The clubs are shut till after his birthday. He's getting increasingly depressed about it all. He has an overseas holiday booked for July to celebrate leaving school and is becoming resigned to getting vaccinated.

But my question is: Is it too late for him to ever be considered fully vaccinated now? If he has his first this month, he'll only be eligible for his second in April - and it seems that many people/countries now only consider 'fully vaccinated' to be having had the booster/3 doses. If that's the case, then he won't be that till July (and then for foreign travel you need to be 14 days post-your last vaccination) And there already seems to be a discussion about a 4th booster - what if by Spring you need to have had 4 vaccinations to be considered 'fully vaccinated'? Is it too late now? If he decides to reluctantly embark on this vaccine programme will he ever catch up?

And to make matters worse, his very talented music teacher (young, fit male, mid-20s)has just suffered an extreme reaction to his 2nd vaccine and has ended up in hospital with myocarditis and blood clots. Typical that my DS now has a very close and concrete example of an adverse vaccine reaction to use as 'evidence' of why he's reluctant to get it. It's also lessened my resolve when assuring him that adverse reactions are vanishingly rare. We are luckily not aware of anyone in our circle of family, school-friends, colleagues who have been made as poorly through Covid ( and I know this is just luck and that it has very badly impacted many people's lives and don't want to diminish this fact in any way).

But I am struggling with my DS and am sad for him and sympathetic. He says that being triple vaccinated doesn't seem to be diminishing the spread of the disease and when he looked at recent hospital statistics he pointed out the statistical manipulation that lumps those who are completely unvaccinated in with those that have only had 1 or 2 vaccines - this is giving a bigger demographic that can then be described as 'not fully vaccinated' and results in people being able to say that 80% of hospital admissions are unvaccinated (fully). He says, but Mum look at the near quarter of cases that ARE triple vaccinated and are in hospital - this is almost equal to the 23% of hospital admissions that are totally unvaccinated. (It doesn't help that he's hoping to do economics at Uni and is therefore interested in, and studying statistics and their analysis.)

And what about Uni? Will they insist on a 'fully vaccinated' status to be on campus? Does anyone have any experience of this?

And finally, will he be able to go abroad without being vaccinated as long as he carries out official PCR tests to prove a negative result and then continues to test during the holiday to prove a negative result every 48/72 hours? I know this would be horrendously expensive if he wants to travel for anything longer than a week which is another incentive to become that elusive thing of 'fully vaccinated'.

I'm genuinely in need of advice here. If I'm to persuade him to get the vaccine I need to be strong in my arguments.

OP posts:
jm901928 · 02/01/2022 14:48

He says, but Mum look at the near quarter of cases that ARE triple vaccinated and are in hospital - this is almost equal to the 23% of hospital admissions that are totally unvaccinated. (It doesn't help that he's hoping to do economics at Uni and is therefore interested in, and studying statistics and their analysis.)*

@AccessNoAreas Your instinct that he's misinterpreting these numbers is absolutely correct.

He's completely wrong that this 23% figure is worrying - in fact, it proves just the opposite (that the vaccines are holding up extremely well).

At 18, there's just no way he's an expert in statistics yet. Not by a long, long way.

Perhaps you can encourage him to seek out a professor in statistics when he goes to uni, and have a conversation about this data?

Here's why he's wrong...

Take an imaginary country with a population of 100,000.

Let's say they have a vaccination rate of 90%, and 1000 people in hospital with covid (and 25% of those hospitalised are vaccinated).

The unvaccinated population is 10,000, of which 750 are hospitalised. This is 7.5% of the unvaccinated population.

The vaccinated population is 90,000, of which 250 are hospitalised. This is 0.002% of the vaccinated population.

The vaccinated are a much much larger group, which means that a tiny percentage of them going to hospital equates to what looks like a sizeable problem.

However, in reality, very very few vaccinated people are being hospitalised.

If vaccinated people in this imaginary country were being hospitalised at a similar rate to unvaccinated people, then there would be almost 7000 people in hospital rather than 1000.

Just an example at a tiny proportion of the numbers of the UK, but you could easily work through the real figures for England and show the same thing.

Kittykelly123 · 02/01/2022 15:03

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PAFMO · 02/01/2022 15:55

He's an adult and that's that.
He's also been doing dodgy research and is unable to analyse scientific fact.
That, at almost 18, plus the fact that he clearly gives not one shiny shit about his father, would disappoint me.

PAFMO · 02/01/2022 15:57

Good lord, missed the bit about him wanting to study economics.
Can't apply base rate fallacy to his (wrong) statistical analysis and wants to do economics?
Not a chance.

reddA · 02/01/2022 16:08

It's 8 weeks between first and second doses for 18+ in Scotland at least, then 12 weeks for Booster so if he decided to go for it he could be fully Vaccinated with booster some time in May.

1dayatatime · 02/01/2022 16:18

@jm901928

"However, in reality, very very few vaccinated people are being hospitalised."

++++

This of course depends your definition of vaccinated but to say that "very very few vaccinated people are being hospitalised " is completely false and misinformation.

The current vaccination status of hospitalisation show:

Unknown status: 2.2%
Unvaccinated: 25.2%
One dose: 6.1%
Two doses: 43.2%
Booster: 23.2%

Source: UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) 31 Dec 2021

Blubells · 02/01/2022 16:29

Can't apply base rate fallacy to his (wrong) statistical analysis and wants to do economics?
Not a chance.

I studied Economics and the 'base rate fallacy' was not part of the curriculum. Not sure why you'd expect a 17 year old school pupil to know this Hmm

I think the op's analysis of pros and cons for him is absolutely sensible.

PAFMO · 02/01/2022 16:42

@Blubells

*Can't apply base rate fallacy to his (wrong) statistical analysis and wants to do economics? Not a chance.*

I studied Economics and the 'base rate fallacy' was not part of the curriculum. Not sure why you'd expect a 17 year old school pupil to know this Hmm

I think the op's analysis of pros and cons for him is absolutely sensible.

Because these days it's pretty basic common knowledge. And even more relevant is when people shove statistics on vaccinated and non-vaccinated into the arena and don't apply it- well, we immediately know where they stand in terms of anti-vax bollocks, don't we?

Are you saying (as someone who has studied statistics) that you think his analysis is correct? Confused

powershowerforanhour · 02/01/2022 16:51

He's nearly an adult man. I'd probably drop the subject at this point.

BigSandyBalls2015 · 02/01/2022 16:56

Most countries consider two vaccines to be “fully vaccinated”

1dayatatime · 02/01/2022 17:17

On the topic of statistical analysis there is a great University of Oxford website calculating your risk from Covid:

qcovid.org

Without taking into account the wider argument about his obligation to his father or wider society or any discussion about post viral fatigue syndrome and focusing purely on the risk to your son.

Then for a healthy 19 year old male vaccinated the risk of catching and dying of Covid is 1 in 1 million or 1 micromort. If has caught Covid this jumps to 10 micromorts.

Note : One micromort is a one in a million chance of dying from something. The higher the micromort something is the greater the chance there is dying from it.

For a healthy 19 year old male unvaccinated the risk of catching and dying of Covid is 1 in 500k or 2 micromort. If has caught Covid this jumps to 20 micromorts.

By comparison here are the micro morts of a few other activities:

One day of skiing: 0.5 micromort
Walking 17 miles : 1 micromort
Driving 230 miles : 1 micromort
Scuba diving: 5 micromorts per dive
Skydiving: 8 micromorts
Just being alive averages out for all ages at : 24 micromorts
Running a marathon: 26 micromorts
Taking one dose of heroin: 30 micromorts
Basejumping: 450 micromorts

So acknowledging that if he gets vaccinated then it halves the chance of him catching and dying from Covid, there is still a very very low micromort chance for him of being unvaccinated and then catching and dying from Covid - equivalent of two 230 mile car journeys.

If he is unvaccinated but then catches Covid his chance of dying is again very low and equivalent to four scuba dives and less than running a marathon.

middleager · 02/01/2022 17:21

My 15 year old was only eligible for his first vaccination 2 weeks ago, as he had Covid at the end of Sept and children have to wait 12 weeks after Covid before the vaccination.

So what happens to all the teens who get Covid and that delays jabs? There must be loads who won't therefore be triple jabbed by summer?

hamstersarse · 02/01/2022 17:25

@Cookerhood

Blood clots aren't a side effect of the mRNA vaccines so his music teacher seems a little unfortunate there. Presumably the clots & the myocarditis were easily treated. It's his choice though. What about the aspect of protecting his father? That's why mine have all been keen to be vaccinated.
I sometimes can't believe what I read coming out of the brains of the pro-vaccination at any cost crew
herecomesthsun · 02/01/2022 17:29

see, that sounds like common sense to me

Alexandra2001 · 02/01/2022 17:31

@Xmasgetaway

I think he sounds sensible. At 18 years old with no health issues it’s ridiculous for him to get the vaccine unless he wants to travel. He’s already had the virus, so will have antibodies now also.
My partners son refuses the vaccine, he has caught CV 4 times (all proved with a PCR)

Isolating right now.

So i don't think there is any extra immunity.

Because symptoms are always mild, it enforces his anti vaxx POV.

Of course up to him, we should all have free chose in matters of health.

NannaMcPhoo · 02/01/2022 17:31

@AccessNoAreas

OP please can you explain exactly why you are worried for him. He has already had covid and probably the Delta version and his body has taken care of him. Why do you think he needs the vaccine?

Cookerhood · 02/01/2022 17:34

She said she was worried about his travel.plsns & uni. I don't think it's so much his health?

SmallestInTheClass · 02/01/2022 17:43

He's a adult, you need to let him come to his own decision. The more you push, the harder it will be for him to change his mind without losing face.

Kittykelly123 · 02/01/2022 17:47

palexander.substack.com/p/norway-and-south-african-omicron

Look at this

titchy · 02/01/2022 17:49

Entirely up to him.

But if all he's bothered about is the possibility of not having a covid passport for travel next summer, then he can either have the first jab, and hope the second and booster are in time if required, or not bother.

In other words he either guarantees not being able to travel, or he gives himself a decent chance of being able to. And doesn't know what to do?

And you say he's bright....?

Cherryblossoms85 · 02/01/2022 17:49

Doing nothing is your best bet here.

herecomesthsun · 02/01/2022 17:51
not very scientific in tone
herecomesthsun · 02/01/2022 17:52

@SmallestInTheClass

He's a adult, you need to let him come to his own decision. The more you push, the harder it will be for him to change his mind without losing face.
yes
Kittykelly123 · 02/01/2022 18:12

TBH the tests are not fit for purpose- the world health organisation even has this information on their website. It’s possible he has not had it once. There are very robust studies (peer reviewed) showing that reinfection is virtually zero.

Kittykelly123 · 02/01/2022 18:16

I love this - great to see risk quantified in day to day activities. I wonder what the risk of a boys holiday in the sun with water sports and lots of booze are? Grin