Is it possible that cases look like they’re levelling out because people are staying home more?

[YoureBreakingMyHeartCecilia]

I’m just wondering this.

I believe the scientists who say this is a super contagious virus.

So I’m just wondering whether the cases levelling out might be because of all the people (like us…) who have been curtailing meet-ups, staying at home etc (in our case we just wanted not to catch it before Xmas!! I’m sure this must be motivating millions of others)

In which case xmas Eve/ Xmas day/26th mixing would just push cases through the roof again

I may have missed someone speculating on this already in which case apologies!!

I believe a lot of people will be having business meetings this weekend.

Not testing as running out of tests/harder to get them.
No symptoms so no need to test and generate more plastic waste.
Not wanting to test positive and have to isolate when there is nothing wrong with you.

Reinfections aren’t counted in the numbers, and I’m sure there must be large numbers of people having it for a second time.

No LFT tests available online. I know I could find some somewhere else like a pharmacy, but I bet this makes it harder for people to test and makes it less likely for people to go out of their way to test.

It's rife round where we are. My daughter has tested positive after contact at school Friday and 5 other children are now positive since then, so it seems pretty infectious, all kids only have very mild symptoms so it's likely people aren't noticing to test for it

I'm a good example of where the stats might be out. I did an LFT on Monday and it was positive. I have now done 3 more and they were all positive and now I have symptoms. I decide not to get a PcR as it would tell me nothing. And I'd be getting texts every day telling me what the guidelines are. I know what they are and will be isolating for ten days. So technically I wouldn't feature. I know quite a few people who are no longer testing before Christmas too

Possibly people not resting as I know there is a struggle to get LFTs . I managed to order some but they never arrived. Pharmacy will now only give one box per adult in house hold near us where as before they gave 2 boxes. There is 4 off us including our 2 DDs. I suspect a lot won't want to test so they don't have to isolate over Christmas.

@FenceSplinters

Reinfections aren’t counted in the numbers, and I’m sure there must be large numbers of people having it for a second time.

I didnt know that. I wonder if you are a reinforced case is it worth getting a PCR if your lft is positive and you have positive household cases? In that circumstance you could be fairly certain it was covid and manage your own self isolation.

I'm doing lft every three days right now as we are mixing a lot and covid was rife in school. But I might test on Thursday and that will be it until i go and see my mum. Unless we are mixing I dont want to use up.limited lft we will need for next term. I think limited lft and new molder systems arent triggering people going for PCRs.

But a quick look on worldometres shows a very sharp rise still in UK cases

I don't think it can be to not mixing, most people I know are still acting pretty much normally. Any slight curtailing of mixing wouldn't suppress cases this much would it?

That’s not my experience. Most people I know have reduced their movements. Our office is empty now, MIL took what is normally a very busy train today which was practically empty. My sister went out for a meal a couple of days ago and the restaurant was really quiet, on the Friday before Christmas this is unheard of. My friend went to one of the cities closest to us for shopping and said it was really quiet. We picked up MIL from the train station in the other city close to us and it was much quieter than you’d expect, definitely quieter than it was last week.

Yes I think a combination of all the above factors is plausible, I think it's possible London is flattening but everywhere else still on the cusp of growth. I suspect we won't see true cases until well after Christmas now tbh, perhaps not until new year, ditto hospitalisations and deaths, with data lagging due to the season and so many off sick as well. I think it'll be quite messy over the next couple of weeks and hard to call. But hoping the flattening is a sign of things calming down. 🤞

A number of factors I think..,

Reinfection aren’t counted.

Some people aren’t testing.

Some people struggle to get a test.

Secondary kids will be testing less now it’s hols.

People are being more careful to protect their Christmas plans.

People are being more careful to protect health.

Tests are taking longer and longer to come back and also be added to data (a look at cases by reporting date shows this).

Positivity in some parts of London is as high as 22% suggesting not enough testing.

The data on numbers testing positive should be looked at in conjunction with the % of those testing which are positive. This is still going up strongly.

If you click on the link you can look at this in your Local Authority.
ourworldindata.org/grapher/uk-covid-positivity?time=2021-12-05..latest&country=Hackney+and+City+of+London~Birmingham~Bristol%2C+City+of~Oxfordshire~England~Milton+Keynes~Kensington+and+Chelsea~Surrey~Sutton