Is it possible that cases look like they’re levelling out because people are staying home more?

[YoureBreakingMyHeartCecilia]

I’m just wondering this.

I believe the scientists who say this is a super contagious virus.

So I’m just wondering whether the cases levelling out might be because of all the people (like us…) who have been curtailing meet-ups, staying at home etc (in our case we just wanted not to catch it before Xmas!! I’m sure this must be motivating millions of others)

In which case xmas Eve/ Xmas day/26th mixing would just push cases through the roof again

I may have missed someone speculating on this already in which case apologies!!

Reading on other threads, people are just not testing so they don’t have to isolate!

I think people just are not testing.

I was thinking about this - they said the cases would be doubling every 3 days but this isn't happening at all? Or am I misunderstanding what this means?

I don't think it can be to not mixing, most people I know are still acting pretty much normally. Any slight curtailing of mixing wouldn't suppress cases this much would it?

Tests have gone up quite a lot in the last week though? Up 25%.

A combination of people being a bit more cautious (staying in, wearing masks etc), more people getting the booster jab and some people just not testing I think.

levelling out? are they? thought today was second highest

They are not levelling out but they are hanging around 90,000 a day for a good few days now, rather than doubling at an incredible rate as modelled.

There are lots of potential reasons.

1. People are more reluctant to test so they don't have to isolate for Christmas
2. Children are off school so don't have to do their LFTs twice per week
3. Testing capacity has reached a max (so the numbers may never get that high just because the labs can't process that many more tests)
4. Change in behaviour has truly resulted in numbers staying stable
5. Weekend lag and delay in getting results back means that there are long delays in results coming in
6. Reinfections in England aren't counted so the actual numbers will be higher than recorded, and lots of current infections (esp with Omicron) are quite likely to be reinfections so won't be on the reported numbers

I doubt very much that the numbers aren't still increasing.

My guess is they will slow down over the next week whilst people are away for Christmas, but with the increase in transmissions over Christmas whilst everyone mixes indoors, late Dec/early Jan is going to be a catastrophe.

Yes it’s possible but seeing as the aim isn’t to overwhelm the NHS, that’s fine. Flatten the curve and all that.
Most people will not get seriously ill (especially with boosters) so we need to manage those going into hospital at a rate we can cope with.
Most people in hospital are still
Unvaccinated as far as I know

1.4 million people tested abs reported yes alone up 24 percent week on week. I know on mumsnet no one test but in the real world that is a lot (and doesn’t include those who did a negative lft but couldn’t be bothered to report!). The People of the U.K. are awful, terrible, worst in the world obviously we know that but to accuse us of not testing given the figures seems a little bit if a stretch!

On the numbers it’s a bit early to know, lots of cases tend to be reported Wednesday, Thursday so they will tell if we are levelling a bit or still rising

A lot of people aren't testing as Omicron seems to be mild so they think it can't be covid.

A lot of people aren't testing as they've had covid in the last 90 days (even though you should still get a PCR if you have new symptoms within 90 days, apparently T&T are telling people they don't need to test again within 90 days, which goes against NHS and government guidance).

A lot of people aren't testing because they haven't got any of the NHS "main" symptoms even though they are now hopelessly out of date.

A lot of people aren't testing because they don't want to risk a positive result ruining their Christmas.

A lot of people aren't testing because they're fed up with the restrictions and the hypocritical government and don't care about doing the right thing any more (which personally I find really hypocritical, especially as this is most likely to create the need for further restrictions).

The fact that testing is increasing doesn't mean that much. For example, if the amount of people with symptoms has increased by 200% but only 25% of those get a test, the testing rates will be rising but it doesn't tell us much about what the real rates are if a high proportion of people with symptoms aren't testing.

I just think 1.4 million isn’t most people not testing (certainly assuming that is an underestimation given the high number of negative lft not reported) but that is the problem with the whole pandemic what to some people seems a small number to others seems really quite big (although it is over one percent of our whole population on a single day but as I said I get that what is big is relative)

Kids not in school so less routine testing.

I’m not testing as can’t get hold of any lfts

I'm sure I saw o the data thread that the numbers testing had actually gone up, so the "it's because people aren't testing" arguments can't be true.

Perhaps it is levelling off?

To put it in perspective in the USA which has a some what bigger population 1.1 million tests performed! Our nobody is resting figure is generally quite big on a global scale if not a mumsnet scale!

Schools have broken up and people have stopped testing.

Also, people aren't mixing as much.

I think numbers will rise in January when schools go back and people mix again test as regularly as they were.

Omicron may have stopped doubling in London. It's also possible that in many parts off the country, delta is decreasing while omicron is doubling.
Let's say you have 95 cases of delta, 5 of omicron. Let's say delta decreases by 20% and omicron doubles. You'll end up with 76 delta 10 omicron, then 61 delta 20 omicron, then 49 delta 40 omicron. So cases won't seem to rise for a while though omicron may be doubling. Obviously, I pulled these numbers out my ass, but out just shows how cases may not be so straight forward.
Also, and I could be seeing on this, but I think that your positive test o only counts if it's the first time you've ever been positive ( I think they're changing this in January). Since omicron odds often a reinfection, this will undercount it. The good thing about this is that hopefully reinfections are milder.

Autocarrot is a pain.

The proportion of tests reported that are from more than 2 days ago is up as is the positivity rate.

Reasonable to assume that we are probably pretty close to testing capacity. Might be better to keep an eye on the specimen date numbers rather than the reported date ones for a more accurate idea of what is happening.

People not testing and or testing capacity temporarily reached.

Many schools closed last Friday so regular LFT will have dropped off. This will reduce the number of asymptomatic positive LFTs leading to positive PCRs.

People are also self limiting their activities and exposure possibilities. But that will all change in a few days time. So the real test will be the data from the 28th Dec onwards.

I wondered this op.

Wow thanks everyone!

I hadn’t even thought about the testing issue in terms of the actual test availability, processing capacity and of course school LFTs stopping this past Friday.

I’m sort of glad it’s not just me who wondered.

I really think it may also be a case of people just not realising they have it, I did hear Tim Spector on the radio last week saying govt urgently need to update the list of symptoms.

Thanks everyone, I think I’m just trying to work out in my own mind how likely it is that things get really shit from around Dec 29/30 and then into Jan.