When will we know if omicron is going to cause an increase in coronavirus hospitalisation and deaths

[anxiouslyanne]

I should probably know this but have been avoiding listening to the news as my MH was beginning to get so much better. I’m still trying to hope for the best re omicron, but when will we definitively know if it’s going to be a big problem?

The experts don't know yet.
I did hear in the next few days , but I've no idea really.

Surely we should be seeing something soon? It's nearly been 3 weeks, right?

I thought they’d know by now too…

They did say hospitals up in London can’t remember by how much but they are not seeing that rise in other areas. Considering it’s now everywhere that sounds least good news. In that 1/3 Londoners have no jabs so in communities where they do it might mean it’s only mild. But only guessing this stage.

I thought it took 2 to 3 weeks for cases to develop into hospital admissions and then another 2 weeks for that to translate into deaths.

It's less than a week since we saw the big increases. It takes about a week from onset symptoms until needing hospital, and then a further week for deaths to occur. There's a fair amount of variation in that, as there is with all disease progression, and the omicron timelines might be different, but it's reasonable expectation.

so that's when the data will begin to show, and I expect they will want data from at least a couple of weeks, rather than just the first days.

There's a further lag because the headline hospital admissions numbers are published a few days after the case numbers - the updated figure published today is data up to 14 December.

About a week I think. I think by then enough people will have caught it and progressed through their illness to draw fairly reliable conclusions and see trends.

Or maybe it will be mild and extra people won’t need hospitalisation.

Omicron has been huge in London for longer so looking at their data will give early indications. Hospitalisations are up 40%

And here's the graph

Nowhere near the peak last January yet though.

@Choux

And here's the graph

Nowhere near the peak last January yet though.

If that is correct (and I've seen some alarming graphs), is confirmed by data over the next couple of weeks and in other regions, then it is concerning

In due course

In 2 weeks.

There's a definite uptick in the last few days. And remember that large numbers of NHS staff are having to isolate as they have covid or are close contacts of a positive case. So covid patients up and available staff down.

I think I read the number of NHS staff off sick due to covid has doubled in the last week.

We pretty much already know op and it’s fine. Omicron clears the system very quickly, top

Overall in the uk it’s up about six percent but deaths are decreasing. As Chris witty said, people are going into hospital and leaving within an average of two days.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

London is increasing by much more but off a low base, and people are released their quickly too. London differs as it has approx a third of its population unvaccinated but still very low overall, and still over 85s being hospitalised, plus remember these are also people in with Covid as opposed to because of it.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nhsRegion%26areaName=London

I think I read the number of NHS staff off sick due to covid has doubled in the last week

It’s not off sick, it’s isolating. Which is very different.

Yes I should have said sick / isolating. But they are still absent. At short notice too. Planning and arranging staffing cover must be a real headache.

England hospital data is more up to date 6800 in hospital today with covid that is less than through much of November when it was 7000. It’s up slightly but significantly below this time last year (sane day was 16,000!). That people think we need to ban Christmas this year baffles me, abs makes me think what data would be need to let it go ahead - because a 10,000 reduction in covid cases year on year is not enough I am guessing nothing will be?!

@Dghgcotcitc

England hospital data is more up to date 6800 in hospital today with covid that is less than through much of November when it was 7000. It’s up slightly but significantly below this time last year (sane day was 16,000!). That people think we need to ban Christmas this year baffles me, abs makes me think what data would be need to let it go ahead - because a 10,000 reduction in covid cases year on year is not enough I am guessing nothing will be?!

I think a small minority of people are panicking. I blame the media for scaremongering again.

Week in between Christmas and New Year apparently

We definitely know a bit now in that cases should be translating into admissions/deaths already. The fact things aren't shooting up is really positive. I think they still want to watch things over the next week or two in case things change but I think we're in a pretty positive place at the moment compared to what some feared was about to happen. It's the same story in NY/Denmark and South Africa - drastic rises in case numbers aren't (so far) leading to a similar number of hospitalisations.

@Choux

There's a definite uptick in the last few days. And remember that large numbers of NHS staff are having to isolate as they have covid or are close contacts of a positive case. So covid patients up and available staff down.

I think I read the number of NHS staff off sick due to covid has doubled in the last week.

Surely that graph is representative of the virus in circulation and it will be circulating (as always) in hospitals. Doesn't mean an uptick in serious illness directly as a result of Covid.

Doesn't mean an uptick in serious illness directly as a result of Covid

We can't call that one way or the other yet. Which is why we need data covering a longer period than the very first days when you would expect the start of any effect to begin to show. Also to be reasonably sure that what is seen really is the trend, not just a few of the jags on what is always a very jaggedy line

Had a clinical appointment this morning a lot of grumpy staff I was taken aback to be honest. They're doing less than half the usual number at the session due to distancing and procedures due to covid measures. They've not had confirmation of their rotas for Xmas yet . The heating was on the blink so it was cold and the laser machine cut out twice during my procedure.

It's no wonder they're a bit snappy

169 in hospital yesterday 111 went in for something else and tested positive