When will we know if omicron is going to cause an increase in coronavirus hospitalisation and deaths

[anxiouslyanne]

I should probably know this but have been avoiding listening to the news as my MH was beginning to get so much better. I’m still trying to hope for the best re omicron, but when will we definitively know if it’s going to be a big problem?

@justasking111 thankyou for your empathy.. it really is exhausting and worrying for us being so exposed to omicron at the moment.

Our heathcare trust are no longer as supportive about trying to protect us and despite having had boosters some of my colleagues have had positive tests this week .

Many of us had our boosters back in September so are beginning to wonder at what point our immunity will start to fade ...

The end of the week after Christmas is probably the point we will know, however as the next 2-3 weeks admissions and deaths will already be baked in at that point, the gamble of not imposing restrictions has already been made. It is certain that we will see an increase in hospitalisation and deaths, the predictions for that increase range from around 200 extra admissions a day upward. The other issue is that the amount of tests being done is falling, but the positivity rate is rising, due to the date that change happened it seems that people stopped getting PCR tests when it would have meant isolating over Christmas. So we have an issue with data being less reliable than normal.

On that basis we might not know the full extent of the impact of Omicron until the mid to late January, when either hospitals are struggling to function and deaths are rocketing, nothing much has changed from current levels, or the whole range in-between.

@covidhater

169 in hospital yesterday 111 went in for something else and tested positive

Can you add a source for this please. Usually

(As in people who went in for something else)

Look for SA data. I've heard hospital admissions have doubled. I am too tired to look now but will tomorrow.

[quote Bluntness100]We pretty much already know op and it’s fine. Omicron clears the system very quickly, top

Overall in the uk it’s up about six percent but deaths are decreasing. As Chris witty said, people are going into hospital and leaving within an average of two days.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

London is increasing by much more but off a low base, and people are released their quickly too. London differs as it has approx a third of its population unvaccinated but still very low overall, and still over 85s being hospitalised, plus remember these are also people in with Covid as opposed to because of it.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nhsRegion%26areaName=London[/quote]
The current deaths were infected 3-4 weeks ago pre omicron. We don’t have that data yet.

Current hospitalisations were infected 2> weeks ago so again we don’t have that data yet especially outside London.

71% if the country has had less than 2 jabs, 81 of over 12s.

The third unvaccinated you mention in London is the same in many cities. Only 66% have had even one dose in Manchester for example. This data isn’t as straightforward as you make out.

We should have a good idea this week. SA data looks really promising and so does Denmark. Their latest respite shows a much lower percentage being hospitalised with omicron compared to previous variants (table 6):

files.ssi.dk/covid19/omikron/statusrapport/rapport-omikronvarianten-19122021-hp16

Report*

@Maddywencelas so why does the goverment thing say 80% of those eligible have had 2 jabs ??
Where are you getting your figures from

If I never hear 'with Covid not of Covid' again it will be too soon. Someone who has had a heart attack or a road traffic accident and catches Covid as well doesn't mean the Covid is irrelevant to their clinical course.

Like everyone on this thread, I hope though that Omicron is the beginning of the end and proves to be significantly less serious with fewer hospitalisations and far fewer deaths. Knowing we have 90000 cases a day (obviously there are more than that) means we're going to see a rise in admissions and deaths though. Of course we are.

There were some interesting graphs on the BBC latest news blog, today. So far it's not looking as bad as it could be, given the infection rate.

@PermanentTemporary

If I never hear 'with Covid not of Covid' again it will be too soon. Someone who has had a heart attack or a road traffic accident and catches Covid as well doesn't mean the Covid is irrelevant to their clinical course.

Like everyone on this thread, I hope though that Omicron is the beginning of the end and proves to be significantly less serious with fewer hospitalisations and far fewer deaths. Knowing we have 90000 cases a day (obviously there are more than that) means we're going to see a rise in admissions and deaths though. Of course we are.

Exactly this! My Dad died 'with' covid last month, as in it was the secondary cause on his death certificate. However, if he'd not caught covid he'd still be alive as the complications from his actual cause of death only arose due to the covid related treatments and meds he had. Covid didn't kill him per se, but if he'd not had covid, he'd still be very much alive, active, and ready for this Christmas. He was only mid 60s.

I'm really sorry @ethelredonagoodday. What a short time, what a shock for you all.

And just for the sake of clarity, he was fully vaxed and boosted, but heavily immunosuppressed.

I was reading that part of the London uptick is people admitted for other things also happen to have covid as it is so prevalent in London. These people as also counted in the figures. It doesn’t explain all of the rise but the graphs don’t tell the whole story.

[quote worriedatthemoment]@Maddywencelas so why does the goverment thing say 80% of those eligible have had 2 jabs ??
Where are you getting your figures from[/quote]
I literally quoted the gov thing when I said 81% of over 12s. That is 71% of the whole population.

What concerns me is that you click on school website to see ‘Guidance on remote learning’ in a big red box. And all the ‘stay home’ stuff is appearing again.

Every time this happened in the past lockdowns followed.

And just for the sake of clarity, he was fully vaxed and boosted, but heavily immunosuppressed
@ethelredonagoodday
I am sorry about your Dad and hate the way that you had to explain his vax status in anticipation of the inevitable qquestions