Interesting perspective re lockdowns

[StormyTeacups]

Interesting article here arguing that falling into the trap of annual lockdowns could be foolish

www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-omicron-christmas-lockdown-uk-booster-shot-infections/

yes, they are re-evaluating day by day

These threads never go anywhere, or persaude anyone to change their very firmly held beliefs. Yes, obviously if we're always going to shut down on the precautionary principle, we'll shut down every year, so he's right that we're setting a precedent. The opposing side is also right that it's not very logical to base an opinion off a week's lag. The boatload of cases over the last week either will trickle into hospital admissions in about 2 weeks, or they won't. Then we'll know.

I think there are quite a few people somewhere in the middle though, who can see there might need to be more measures/ a lockdown, but are not demanding one right now.

We are still getting more information on omicron that will be important for deciding this.

Even Facebook delete Heneghan's "interesting" views. And that takes some doing.

The fool doesn't even check primary data before expounding on what it "proves". Remember his "masks don't work" stuff.
He's an embarrassment.

Aren’t ICU admissions in the UK still overrepresented by the unvaccinated? If so, as unpalatable as it seems, isn’t mandatory vaccination the lesser of two evils here? It seems horribly unfair that all those that have been vaccinated, not only to protect their individual health but also to help society now have to be locked down and risk their livelihoods, mental health and children’s education because some people refuse to get vaccinated.

@bluetongue I have to say I've ended up coming to that conclusion. It seems a ridiculous thing to do, but it's also ridiculous to keep stopping people's lives and livelihoods. My worry is that even if it becomes mandatory, it seems like the goalposts have changed so much that some other metric starts to be used to justify lockdowns. Remember when they said only the vulnerable needed the vaccine?

Mandatory vaccination is problematic, even with something as light as Covid passes which will do little as you can do lft anyway- there would be strong resistance from some people

I find it frustrating as anyone though and think vaccination is way out of this crisis.

It also annoys me Javid recognises problem but hadn’t suggested ways to tackle it

@PurpleDaisies

I knew this would be him.

This is not a new viewpoint from him.

Agree not him again. Gupta too.

@bluetongue

Aren’t ICU admissions in the UK still overrepresented by the unvaccinated? If so, as unpalatable as it seems, isn’t mandatory vaccination the lesser of two evils here? It seems horribly unfair that all those that have been vaccinated, not only to protect their individual health but also to help society now have to be locked down and risk their livelihoods, mental health and children’s education because some people refuse to get vaccinated.

I think you've oversimplifying the situation. Mandatory vaccination will unfortunately not set the CEV free. With large pockets of the world mostly unvaccinated I would imagine Covid is going to be circulating for a long time. High rates of vaccination do not always appear to translate to low infection rates - you only need to look at Gibraltor and Israel to see that, as they both experienced large surges despite having extremely high uptake. Presenting either locking down the unvaccinated or the CEV as an option is unrealistic and short-sighted.

@herecomesthsun

Do they have the same numbers as us? Or the same imminent pressures on their services?

It may be delayed but omicron will spread quickly there too. Healthcare is not huge but it is summer so not the winter pressure.

However there is no previous infection at all pretty much which means the benefit attributed to SA doesn’t apply.

What is interesting is the society will collapse if we all get omicron at same time hadn’t been a message

The overriding one is it’s mild.

I think the issue is the winter pressure on the NHS though, being added to by omicron.

If there wasn't the worry about health services being overwhelmed, we'd be having different conversations here,

I find it interesting but also this was a choice as borders were shut and opened even though omicron was in other states. Less emphasis on boosters but they have shortened gap thankfully.

I agree winter pressure - Europe facing same

So do you think the society collapse isn’t as relevant? If people get it at roughly same time and isolation happens it’s a similar issue

There will be far fewer with boosters too.

@MarshaBradyo

Mandatory vaccination is problematic, even with something as light as Covid passes which will do little as you can do lft anyway- there would be strong resistance from some people

I find it frustrating as anyone though and think vaccination is way out of this crisis.

It also annoys me Javid recognises problem but hadn’t suggested ways to tackle it

One thing that also confuses and alarms me about mandatory vaccination is where the requirement would end. Would the goverment/people who are baying for this be happy with one jab/two jabs/three? Or, as we now know the vaccines only offer approximately 3 - 6 months protection would it be something you are expected to do as and when the goverment orders throughout the rest of your life? It would be difficult to feel as though you had any freedom or control over your body if this was this case, surely?

Whatever we have it should be followed by everyone, including the government and Prime Minister.

@bluetongue

Aren’t ICU admissions in the UK still overrepresented by the unvaccinated? If so, as unpalatable as it seems, isn’t mandatory vaccination the lesser of two evils here? It seems horribly unfair that all those that have been vaccinated, not only to protect their individual health but also to help society now have to be locked down and risk their livelihoods, mental health and children’s education because some people refuse to get vaccinated.

Not sure about mandatory vaccination, you can't force people to have a substance injected into them that they don't want, but time-limited vaccine passports (say until the end of March). It might be that as more data becomes available, such a requirement could be lifted sooner. The information coming out of Denmark is very promising - a much lower rate of hospitalisation with Omicron.

I am increasingly convinced that mandatory vaccine (or a vaccine passport to participate in most of society) is a good thing.

The freedom of the many has to trump the freedom of the few, here.

Of course, for those who want to pretty much self isolate, they would not be mandated to be vaccinated.

And I don’t see this as the ‘thin end of the wedge’, not even sure what the thick end of the wedge would look like! It would be a temporary measure to see us through a once-in-a-century event.

@TheReluctantPhoenix

I am increasingly convinced that mandatory vaccine (or a vaccine passport to participate in most of society) is a good thing.

The freedom of the many has to trump the freedom of the few, here.

Of course, for those who want to pretty much self isolate, they would not be mandated to be vaccinated.

And I don’t see this as the ‘thin end of the wedge’, not even sure what the thick end of the wedge would look like! It would be a temporary measure to see us through a once-in-a-century event.

So going through your post perhaps I can explain the thin end and thick end of the wedge.

Let's say vaccines do become mandatory unless the person is self isolating at home. As we have seen there will always be a section of society that refuses to have the vaccine. So how do you go about forcing them to have vaccine - pin them down?

Equally if they opt for self isolation but then fail to actually do so how do you enforce this. One option would be to forcibly quarantine them at their expense in say a hotel. Some would be unable to or refuse to pay so then it would fall to the taxpayer and to avoid the cries of a freebie tax payer funded hotel stay and to save cost a lower quality holiday camp might be used.

To make sure they don't leave the holiday camp, security and guards would be needed- can you see where this is going and the thick end of the wedge?

@TheReluctantPhoenix

Also it's not a once in a century event , there was the Asian flu of 1957 and the Hong Zhongshan Zulu of 1968 that each caused 3 million deaths worldwide.

[quote 1dayatatime]@TheReluctantPhoenix

Also it's not a once in a century event , there was the Asian flu of 1957 and the Hong Zhongshan Zulu of 1968 that each caused 3 million deaths worldwide.[/quote]
Sorry auto fill error - Hong Kong Flu of 1968.

@StormyTeacups

I'm a regular on this board and have been since it's conception, under different names. We welcome the opinion of scientists don't we? Even if we don't agree?

No, to be accepted here and not argued with you need to be pro hard lockdown and up for monthly vaccines else you are a granny killing, tin foil hat wearing granny killer.

@1dayatatime,

You are writing some type of dystopian fantasy.

All you need to do is require vaccine passes for travel on public transport, non essential shops and public entertainment venues.

No holiday camps with guards, forced vaccines etc are required.

@TheReluctantPhoenix

"I am increasingly convinced that mandatory vaccine (or a vaccine passport to participate in most of society) is a good thing.

The freedom of the many has to trump the freedom of the few, here."

++++

So effectively create a two tier society based on vaccination with the unvaccinated precluded from participating in most of society.

I could easily draw parallels with Nazi Germany, South African apartheid or segregation in the US - but I think it is very clear that what you are proposing is extremely dystopian.

Hey it even comes with a catchy slogan :

"The freedom of the many has to trump the freedom of the few"

@1dayatatime,

Your analogies are completely incorrect and inappropriate.

I was born Jewish, it was not a choice I made. Not getting vaccinated is a choice to risk others’ lives and the closure of society.