If omicron symptoms are so mild

[Mistletoeandwhineing]

To not understand what the panic is about?

Have been watching regular updates from Dr John Campbell, very level headed and knowledgeable. Current evidence seems to be looking very positive. I realise we need to wait a little longer to be sure, but overall it’s looking to be very mild and possibly actually a good thing for immunity. Or am I wrong?
Feel like I’m living in a parallel universe

Amazing timing for Boris, huge distraction from all his party lies.

@Feelingoktoday

I think Boris’ announcement tonight will have panicked people.

There were extremely long queues on the jab booking site

@DrManhattan

Amazing timing for Boris, huge distraction from all his party lies.

Vaccine roll out.

Big numbers

Draft in Military Logistics.

Ask the NHS to do the impossible (again.)

Thanks for the reply @PrincessNutNuts
Sorry if this is a silly question, but why does it take time for cases to move up the age groups? I know that working/school age are more likely to be mixing freely etc but I'm sure there are quite a few elderly who mix too (with younger relatives/carers etc) I'm not being goady, genuinely curious? As aforementioned, I do absolutely think it's sensible to proceed with caution until more is known about omicron. But hypothetically, if it really does turn out to be very mild (as in cold like) do you feel that people should still isolate? My concern is that loads of NHS staff will be off at once due to the isolation rules even though they are medically fit to work and this is what will cause the real problems in the NHS. Of course I know there Is a (hopefully very small) chance that those very elderly/frail would still unfortunately die from omicron no matter how mild it is if they caught it from a healthcare worker, but looking at the bigger picture would the NHS not be more at risk due to unnecessary short staffing as opposed to a very tiny minority getting seriously ill? Just to clarify, I'm talking about a situation whereby omicron is cold like in severity.

If youd had a heart attack, or stroke or were going into hospital for surgery or to receive chemo, would you be happy being treated by someone with COVID? It's been shown now to worsen outcomes, no matter what you've originally gone in with.

I think it is an impossible target. But everyone they do manage to get done makes a difference if it raises your immunity to catching omicron to 70% (particularly if you had AZ). Its not just you that makes a difference to - its the most effective way to substantially reduce the R to a level which gives times to get more people done. The more people you can get done in the first week of the drive is crucial and actually more important in some ways than in three weeks time for this reason.

That is why a televised address might just work - but the walkins have to be ready and waiting come Wednesday for the 18 to 30 year olds and the 30 to 40 year olds who can't get an appointment for love nor money. Wednesday, Thursday and Friday this week are now crucial.

But i do think there will be many who can't be arsed and won't get swept up into the desire to queue for hours in the cold and wet of December. (Especially if they have young kids)

I was trying to book a booster on Saturday for either this Sunday just gone or later today. I found a time and went downstairs to check my calendar. Came back to my booking, found it had timed out, and starting again was then offered next week or 5th January - so in that 5 minutes all bookings for this week had gone.

I am over 40, so how they will manage when the under 40s also come along I am not sure.

This.

It perhaps will not be mild when it reaches older people, which as a more transmissible version, it may be able to do quite effectively.

@Fluffysocks88

Thanks for the reply *@PrincessNutNuts* Sorry if this is a silly question, but why does it take time for cases to move up the age groups? I know that working/school age are more likely to be mixing freely etc but I'm sure there are quite a few elderly who mix too (with younger relatives/carers etc) I'm not being goady, genuinely curious? As aforementioned, I do absolutely think it's sensible to proceed with caution until more is known about omicron. But hypothetically, if it really does turn out to be very mild (as in cold like) do you feel that people should still isolate? My concern is that loads of NHS staff will be off at once due to the isolation rules even though they are medically fit to work and this is what will cause the real problems in the NHS. Of course I know there Is a (hopefully very small) chance that those very elderly/frail would still unfortunately die from omicron no matter how mild it is if they caught it from a healthcare worker, but looking at the bigger picture would the NHS not be more at risk due to unnecessary short staffing as opposed to a very tiny minority getting seriously ill? Just to clarify, I'm talking about a situation whereby omicron is cold like in severity.

You're right that it's a huge generalisation and we all know young people who don't go to school/busy workplaces, pubs and gyms and older people who do but it is primarily a "number of contacts" thing.

The youngest few age groups tend to have a lot more contacts than the oldest few age groups over the course of a week which means they are more likely to get embroiled in an early chain of transmission.

Older people tend to catch it later, often when it is brought to them.

As it's less likely to be a severe illness in younger age groups outbreaks can spread and grow in the community without being detected.

In older age groups it's more likely to cause illness and be picked up - stopping that particular chain of transmission.

I think they've changed the isolation rule to daily testing now?

But yeah, we should do everything to minimise the spread because it's not just about the people who experience it as cold symptoms and the more you help it spread the more people who will be hospitalised by it it will get to.

Plus any case of covid can lead to long covid.

The worry is that you can't really risk assess something we hardly know anything about.

Typically viruses mutate and become less intense as they mutate. That's what we've seen with other viruses and hopefully Omicron is a step in that direction.

But imagine if all schools in your region caught something like chicken pox ALL AT ONCE, or if every one in all the hospital's caught diarrhoea and sickness all on the same day and we're out for a few days, that sort of interruption, even though for most is mild, would be catastrophic for the wider society.

Also you've only got to read half of the covid threads on here with people being defiant of the boosters because they refuse to take precautions against something they don't fully understand which is something that the government need to consider in their action plan because that will mean herd immunity is lowered, coupled with the fact there aren't really enough vaccinators any way.

They may be mild in relatively fit and healthy patients what about cev people and especially those with compromised immune systems?

We also don't yet know of long term effects

Also - money!

Millions of people out sick from work no matter what the job fucks the economy. Tories are all about the money!

If it sweeps through emergency services professionals we're fucked.

It could result in many doctors and nurses isolating. Lorry drivers and other essential workers.

@Porcupineintherough

If youd had a heart attack, or stroke or were going into hospital for surgery or to receive chemo, would you be happy being treated by someone with COVID? It's been shown now to worsen outcomes, no matter what you've originally gone in with.

But we may be faced with a situation where our only options are a doctor with covid or no doctor at all.

If doctors are treating patients while sick, it will be utter carnage. It's fine for people who are young and healthy to say enough is enough, let's get on with things but there are so many vulnerable people out there. We have a duty to protect them and take care of them. I don't know know many doctors who would agree to go to work while infected with covid knowing that they will infect and kill many of their patients. It just isn't ethical.

"Typically viruses mutate and become less intense as they mutate. That's what we've seen with other viruses and hopefully Omicron is a step in that direction"

You mean like hiv, smallpox, rabies etc?

Typically people quote this when it depends on lots of factors like selection pressure on the virus. Some people even discuss what the virus "wants!"

^Exactly. 99% of transmission occurs before people are even symptomatic so there's no selection pressure on Covid to become less virulent.

I’ve jut started immunotherapy-it’s scary for me but it is what it is.However,my last treatment in hospital was in mid November and the staff on the cancer treatment ward were so short staffed because of illness inc the annual d & v bug -flu-covid etc-all appointments got behind but the treatments still had to be given.A lot if very ill people being treated by staff that were exhausted and this was before Omicron.Local hospital is already under enormous pressure because of other seasonal bugs so imagine adding to that.

There is a happy medium between optimism and total panic based on the evidence to date.

It is looking milder. We don’t know it at 99% confidence yet, but most data is pointing in that direction.

It is, also, highly transmissible (best estimate of r in immunonaive is about 8-9) and has a short incubation period (2-3 days).

However double vaccinated people are highly unlikely to be hospitalised, and triple vaccinated are likely (75%) to be protected or asymptomatic. We don’t yet know about previously infected but, again, unlikely to suffer severe illness.

And, within 100 days or so, we will have more specific vaccines and antiviral pills.

However, with a vast tide of infection, even a tiny proportion being hospitalised will overwhelm our rather pathetic NHS.

I think our response is about right: get everyone triple jabbed (though I think this should include children too) and put in sensible restrictions for those who refuse jabs.

We, as a species, are rapidly adapting to Covid, as it is adapting to us. In a year or two, we will lead a happy symbiotic existence with our little spiky friend. In the interim, we just need to be a bit sensible.

John Campbell is not a medical doctor

they said Covid 19 would not affect most people badly, as was always known.
but
it is all very unknown.
no one knew about long covid.

On the hospital capacity issue - the crisis in social care greatly contributes to this. I read last week that 10% hospital beds are being used by patients who can't be moved on because of the lack of care package/carers. I am not sure how this is being sorted out.

I just get the feeling they are going to say every new person with COVID will be the new omicron. Who’s ever gonna know? Don’t trust them one bit.

My house is just recovering from it (not in UK)

It barely affected the kids but it knocked us adults out for a few days.

More alarmingly was how it ripped through my dc school. In a matter of days pupils and teachers and parents were testing positive in such numbers that whole classes had to close immediately, and a usually very organised school fell into chaos while it scrambled to assess situation and set up online learning. This is a school that has had stringent Covid-19 protocol since the beginning.

So whilst it may be mild (although one parent i know has been hospitalised) it has the potential to cause mayhem.

The media just make up absolute shit.

See here, Sky news has someone on claiming 10 000 people in hospital with Covid in Wales alone. Real figure - 286.

twitter.com/statsjamie/status/1470133258461532173