If omicron symptoms are so mild

[Mistletoeandwhineing]

To not understand what the panic is about?

Have been watching regular updates from Dr John Campbell, very level headed and knowledgeable. Current evidence seems to be looking very positive. I realise we need to wait a little longer to be sure, but overall it’s looking to be very mild and possibly actually a good thing for immunity. Or am I wrong?
Feel like I’m living in a parallel universe

The NHS "not being able to cope" looks like people dying in corridors when they could have been saved if they had a bed.

They're very keen to avoid this.

If the Tories hadn't underfunded the NHS, this would be less of an issue, and we wouldn't have to have so many restrictions n on our own lives in order to protect it.

@loantopil

I wouldn't trust the data coming out of South Africa. Cases will be significantly under reported. Similarly to the PP saying the experts over there saying it's a milder illness. It's not been around long enough to really know, think back to the first 4-6 weeks after hearing about the first COVID. Nobody knew anything reliable.

Why? Any chance you could just pause and consider maybe Africa is in fact a source of credible scientific data ?

I imagine Boris is more concerned about vast numbers of workers being off.
You might not be hospitalised, but you could be off work a few weeks, not to mention the impact of long covid and long term disability/inability to work.
if its doubling every 2 to 3 days then we currently have 48k per day in 2 weeks the shit could be really hitting the fan if it continues at that rate

dec 16th 96k
dec 19th 192k
dec 22nd 386k
dec 25th 772k

Now imagine the impact of that on the economy. vital services would be affected, supply lines , health services, schools, supermarkets Parents unable to work due to sickness or lack of childcare.

@reesewithoutaspoon

I imagine Boris is more concerned about vast numbers of workers being off. You might not be hospitalised, but you could be off work a few weeks, not to mention the impact of long covid and long term disability/inability to work. if its doubling every 2 to 3 days then we currently have 48k per day in 2 weeks the shit could be really hitting the fan if it continues at that rate

dec 16th 96k
dec 19th 192k
dec 22nd 386k
dec 25th 772k

Now imagine the impact of that on the economy. vital services would be affected, supply lines , health services, schools, supermarkets Parents unable to work due to sickness or lack of childcare.

Are your calculations correct though as I thought only a few thousand of current cases in England relate to Omicron and the rest would be other variants.

if its doubling every 2 to 3 days then we currently have 48k per day in 2 weeks the shit could be really hitting the fan if it continues at that rate

Yes but not all of the 48k today re Omicron. Delta is still the most common variant in the country as it currently stands and does not spread as quickly. You calculations are likely to be some way out.

If the Tories hadn't underfunded the NHS,

And there is no excuse now, they should be pumping the £350 million a week that we used to send to the EU into it.

The suggestion that this is a milder strain is based on South African data I think. The average age of the SA population is around half the UK’s so that may be a factor influencing nervousness here?

Here's the thing...we don't really know yet what might be the long-term effects of Omicron. Also, I've read about a good many people who have had it, and they suffered extreme lethargy and blinding headaches...so, not "mild," but "milder." And far, far more infectuous. Worth being cautious about until we know more about long-term effects.

Omicron symptoms may be broadly mild but the possible reasons that it can evade the vaccine progress thus far may be storing up more trouble. Running alongside Delta in such quantity may not be good news. It looks as if some investigations show that omicron has successfully and quickly recombined from different versions of the virus. Many times more transmission and reinfection (because different enough from earlier imprints) opens more opportunities for this.

www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-12/omicron-coronavirus-inside-the-research-lab-vaccines/100690964

Valid point, but we also dont sequence every PCR so we dont know true numbers. The main worry with the variant is the speed of transmission. a doubling every 2 to 3 days is worrying, given tht rises are exponential.
It has the ability to cause issues, hence the race to booster jab as many as possible to try and slow it down.

@Mistletoeandwhineing

To not understand what the panic is about?

Have been watching regular updates from Dr John Campbell, very level headed and knowledgeable. Current evidence seems to be looking very positive. I realise we need to wait a little longer to be sure, but overall it’s looking to be very mild and possibly actually a good thing for immunity. Or am I wrong?
Feel like I’m living in a parallel universe

You kind of are in an alternate reality.

If you thinking omicron is mild and feeling positive that omicron may actually be a good thing then you need a wider variety of information sources.

Because that is an overly optimistic position that doesn't have a lot of basis in reality.

I thought this post from Your Local Epidemiologist was informative. Omicron: We're getting (some) answers (8th Dec).

@NannaMcPhoo

Dare I say it but the NHS has been very successful and kept a lot of people alive well beyond what might be considered natural. I personally think the government are scared of these people succumbing to the Omicrom. Most of our data is coming from South Africa where the average age is much lower.

Life expectancy in the UK is among the lowest in Western Europe.

Yet, you seem to think that the NHS has been very successful and kept a lot of people alive well beyond what might be considered natural?

Next, you will be advocating a concerted effort to kill off everyone over 75.

@PrincessNutNuts Ok.

In all honesty, I try not to read/research too much as I’m still suffering with long covid from infection March 2020 and have a great deal of anxiety about being sick/sicker again.
I occasionally look at the John Campbell videos and the most recent one *Did seem hugely positive 🤷🏻‍♀️Is he lying/wrong?

Personally I am getting heartily sick of the media hyping this up.

News from many other countries is that it is milder, and therefore once you have had it will confer a genuine long term immunity.

I think we need to move on from Covid, it has been nearly 2 years, we just have to live with it like any other virus.

@tttigress This is what I’ve been seeing too, but there seems to be lots of conflicting information

[quote Mistletoeandwhineing]@PrincessNutNuts Ok.

In all honesty, I try not to read/research too much as I’m still suffering with long covid from infection March 2020 and have a great deal of anxiety about being sick/sicker again.
I occasionally look at the John Campbell videos and the most recent one *Did seem hugely positive 🤷🏻‍♀️Is he lying/wrong?[/quote]
I don't think he is lying, he seems to have been incredibly conservative, just reporting valid sources throughout this crisis.

@tttigress I agree

@RandomMess

Because it's so transmissible so many more people will catch and have it in a short period of time and even though I the %age of those people that will need hospital support is tiny that will be an awful lot of people for our NHS to cope with when they are at their busiest over winter.

It's a numbers game.

Exactly this. I work in the NHS and winter is traditionally a nightmare. Full wards no beds and with a new variant doing the rounds this could easily overwhelm the already creaking system.

If staff become sick too then there are very few of us to look after the very many of you.

If this continues I would not be surprised if more restrictions were introduced in the New Year

Any chance you could just pause and consider maybe Africa is in fact a source of credible scientific data ?

I am sure the data coming out of SA is entirely credible but the reality of the youthful SA population, weather, time of year, activities able to be undertaken outside etc and our aging population in the middle of winter with huge indoor mixing about to take place for Xmas and you can understand the concern. Best case scenario is that omicron is a mild disease for everyone and hospitalisation rates remain incredibly low to nothing at all. But following delta and world experiences there, plus winter and the state of the NHS, it is clearly crucial that we don’t just take what is happening in SA as a model for what could happen here. We are not the same. Apples and pears.

@Mistletoeandwhineing

To not understand what the panic is about?

Have been watching regular updates from Dr John Campbell, very level headed and knowledgeable. Current evidence seems to be looking very positive. I realise we need to wait a little longer to be sure, but overall it’s looking to be very mild and possibly actually a good thing for immunity. Or am I wrong?
Feel like I’m living in a parallel universe

He's a nurse. I am sure he is very level-headed and knowledgeable, but the fact remains he is not a virologist or epidemiologist or even a GP, he is a nurse with a PhD.

Current evidence is suggesting a massive wave of infections. Mild means not requiring hospitalisation, but if there is a massive swell in numbers - which there inevitably will be as the Omicron variant has been shown to be far more transmissible with a shorter doubling time - then even with a milder response, a percentage will require hospital care and hospitals are already overwhelmed.

It is thought there will be somewhere between half a million and a million cases in the UK by Christmas, etc, that's how fast it is transmitting.

@reallyalurker

I thought this post from Your Local Epidemiologist was informative. Omicron: We're getting (some) answers (8th Dec).

yes that's a good clear post, but something that is not mentioned is mutation....the more people who get it and spread it, the more people who will incubate it, the more mutations there will be and the more chance of a bad one...especially when the "parent" of the bad one has an altered spike protein and shows signs of being very infectious. the more people who are better protected against the virusm the less incubators there are walking around, the less mutations there will be. I think that a concern is that people will not worry about taking precautions or getting boosted because "oh its only mild" and the incubation=mutation thing will get forgotten or ignored.

Because although mild in most cases, if you scale up the more serious cases based on the current predicted figures, it is enough to overwhelm health services. A TV news report last night said 4 out of 5 people in one hospital with covid were unvaccinated. Makes me so angry that people who could avoid being admitted are there using up precious resources

@LaurieFairyCake

Because millions of people need boosted as theyre out of antibodies or too long since second jab

And that means thousands going to go in to hospital

Not happened in South Africa.

@Mojoj

Even if it's mild, there are so many seriously unhealthy people in the UK, that it will no doubt overwhelm the NHS. But God forbid the Government should be encouraging people to boost their immune systems by eating well and exercising. Let's just keep pumping chemicals into ourselves.

Totally agree with you. That’s the message the government should have been telling us!