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If omicron symptoms are so mild

238 replies

Mistletoeandwhineing · 12/12/2021 22:38

To not understand what the panic is about?

Have been watching regular updates from Dr John Campbell, very level headed and knowledgeable. Current evidence seems to be looking very positive. I realise we need to wait a little longer to be sure, but overall it’s looking to be very mild and possibly actually a good thing for immunity. Or am I wrong?
Feel like I’m living in a parallel universe

OP posts:
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StrangerThanSpring · 12/12/2021 23:51

@Lalliella

Omicron hospitalisations have started.
I've also read that there has been a hospitalization from omicron. I will look for a link.
Porcupineintherough · 12/12/2021 23:52

Africa is a pretty big place @CloudPop and most of the people living in it do not have good access to healthcare. SA is better than most in that respect but there is still a huge amount of poverty and health inequality there. We know the rate of excess deaths is jumping up right now. How would you explain that if not COVID?

It is quite possible for omicron to both be milder than delta and still kill a large number of people. It's also possible that the data coming out of SA is not complete enough for us to us to know for sure.

KerryWeaver · 12/12/2021 23:53

@NannaMcPhoo

Dare I say it but the NHS has been very successful and kept a lot of people alive well beyond what might be considered natural. I personally think the government are scared of these people succumbing to the Omicrom. Most of our data is coming from South Africa where the average age is much lower.
Even before the pandemic life expectancy in the UK was one of the lowest in Western Europe.

Yet, you claim that the NHS has been very successful and kept a lot of people alive well beyond what might be considered natural.

Dare I say but you were pleased to hear that life expectancy in England has fallen by 1.3 years for men (78.7) and 0.9 years for women (82.7).

PrincessNutNuts · 12/12/2021 23:55

[quote Mistletoeandwhineing]@PrincessNutNuts Ok.

In all honesty, I try not to read/research too much as I’m still suffering with long covid from infection March 2020 and have a great deal of anxiety about being sick/sicker again.
I occasionally look at the John Campbell videos and the most recent one *Did seem hugely positive 🤷🏻‍♀️Is he lying/wrong?[/quote]
I don't know what Dr John Campbell is saying but tonight at 8pm the Prime Minister did a special address and called it an "emergency."

The situation is worse than with delta just because of the increased transmissibility of omicron.

It's also worse because omicron has some ability to get round the vaccines, and that's why the boosters are being given faster and earlier.

And no one knows about the severity of omicron yet. It's too new.

Plus the maths is very important.

If, for instance, it is half as severe as delta but several times more infectious then we'll see more people hospitalised than if it was more severe but not as good at spreading.

To recap: All the news we know so far is bad. And we don't know about severity yet.

But don't take it from me. Expand your information sources.

StrangerThanSpring · 12/12/2021 23:55

Link from the BBC about hospitalisation from Omicron. It's too early for deaths yet but they will most likely follow.

www.bbc.com/news/uk-59627188

Octavia174 · 12/12/2021 23:56

@Sowhatifiam

Any chance you could just pause and consider maybe Africa is in fact a source of credible scientific data ?

I am sure the data coming out of SA is entirely credible but the reality of the youthful SA population, weather, time of year, activities able to be undertaken outside etc and our aging population in the middle of winter with huge indoor mixing about to take place for Xmas and you can understand the concern. Best case scenario is that omicron is a mild disease for everyone and hospitalisation rates remain incredibly low to nothing at all. But following delta and world experiences there, plus winter and the state of the NHS, it is clearly crucial that we don’t just take what is happening in SA as a model for what could happen here. We are not the same. Apples and pears.

There is also very hi levels of poverty and health issues in SA as well, not least diet of both blacks and whites, super low previous vaccination rates. They may have a low average age but they still have millions over 50 too, 1.2 between 65 and 70, why aren't they all filling up SA hospitals?

I used to live there, not apples and pears at all.

PrincessNutNuts · 12/12/2021 23:59

The U.K. threat level has been raised to 4

If omicron symptoms are so mild
NeedAHoliday2021 · 13/12/2021 00:03

I don’t get it and wonder if part of it is political fear mongering - family in North America aren’t hearing the same as us and it’s much more positive out there.

2389Champ · 13/12/2021 00:07

[quote StrangerThanSpring]Link from the BBC about hospitalisation from Omicron. It's too early for deaths yet but they will most likely follow.

www.bbc.com/news/uk-59627188[/quote]
In the small print:

“It is not clear if those people who are in hospital with Omicron are there because of the virus or for other reasons.“

Bear in mind, many C19 infections are actually picked up in hospitals rather than as admissions.

I’m convinced myself and DH had Omicron last week. Our symptoms were very mild, but exactly as listed. Scratchy throat, runny nose, mild head ache, started with achy joints and feeling cold but both felt 100% within 24/48 hours. Had we not tested positive, we would have felt well enough to just carry on. Plus, I’m pretty sure I picked it up at a party where I spent time chatting to a guest who had just returned from SA!

2389Champ · 13/12/2021 00:10

[quote Jenasaurus]twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1469975237894803457?t=nKU7sb6cYju-VE4K_7Bv4g&s=07&fbclid=IwAR3QWpIlhN04lfAsIoErIZiq4WbCDlQ9_VyoGGn7DMlt1RQTQrzoGyhFjJE[/quote]
Please ignore Diegl Ding. He always tweets doom and gloom and sometimes his facts aren’t always inaccurate and tend to be rather sensationalist.

BashfulClam · 13/12/2021 00:13

It’s more transmissible. Jason Leach on Nicola Sturgeons update said it was 3 x as infectious. Which means 3x as many people may need intensive care treatment as it might not present a mild in older people or people with compromised immunity.

PrincessNutNuts · 13/12/2021 00:14

I don't know him, but I do know Shaun Lintern who wrote the article in that tweet for The Sunday Times.

If omicron symptoms are so mild
If omicron symptoms are so mild
Babyroobs · 13/12/2021 00:14

@Sweetnhappy1

It's spreading really really fast. Even if it's milder than previous variants, if a lot of people have it at the same time then we will really struggle day to day. If a lot of the postal workers get it at the same time, there goes our deliveries. If a lot of supermarket staff and lorry drivers get it, there goes our food. If a lot of our teachers get it, who will teach the kids? Similarly if a lot of NHS staff get it, who looks after the patients? It's not just about hospitalisations and deaths, there are huge economic implications if we have a lot of the population unwell.
Yes this is exactly it. Lots of NHS staff ill, many more isolating ( maybe), many looking after sick elderly parents or kids, many more deployed to the vaccination effort on top of an already struggling NHS. nursing homes already struggling too. The potential consequences do not bear thinking about. They should be gathering up details now of people that could be roped in to help. I signed up for the emergency covid Nursing register when the virus first kicked off and was never even contacted.
Fluffysocks88 · 13/12/2021 00:14

Im curious if omicron does indeed prove to be very mild (as in a cold), would there still be a requirement for positive cases to isolate? Bearing in mind people generally don't take time off for colds. I appreciate the common cold may be dangerous for a tiny proportion of society but we've never stayed at home for mild illnesses before. I've said on another post that of course it's imperative to proceed with caution until we know more, but I am wondering what the expectations will be if is does turn out to be very mild.

Mistletoeandwhineing · 13/12/2021 00:16

@2389Champ I just clicked on it and wish I hadn’t, anxiety shot right up. Going to bed now.

OP posts:
Caddycat · 13/12/2021 00:16

What doctors call mild can still require time in hospital, especially coupled with another winter respiratory illness.
It's not covid they worry about, it's bringing the nhs to its knees and their ruthless cuts being blamed.

Fluffysocks88 · 13/12/2021 00:16

And surely by now they must have dime data about how it affects elderly/vulnerable in SA? Surely if it is so transmissible, at least some of that demographic will have been infected by now?

RedToothBrush · 13/12/2021 00:17

Its a numbers game.

Before covid ever came along the government had contingency plans for a mass flu outbreak.

This isnt because they expect it to be deadly, its because of the numbers likely to be off work at the same time.

A shortage of key workers because they are off sick could risk critical infrastructure and services. It only takes an illness to be mild but to affect a huge percentage of the population at the same time to cause that problem.

We talk about the NHS having capacity issues - part of that driven by staff shortages, but it also everything from teachers, nuclear workers, delivery drivers, food production lines etc.

What we are hearing about omicron is multiple cases of how 1 person has infected 30, 40, 50 or even more people in one place at the same time. Imagine that happens at your local supermarket forcing it close. And thats replicated at A&E or the water treatment plant or the amazon warehouse multiple times across the country.

That alone is scary enough.

And we don't know that omicron is milder yet. What if its not.

We know that 3 jabs is perhaps the best hope to stop a critical infrastructure failure in a few weeks. Even a lockdown might not work well against omicron because its such a transmitable variant, precisely because key workers will still be required to work.

I think the government essentially telling everyone to drop everything and focus on getting a booster is a telling indicator of just how critical this is.

I am still trying to get my head around how they intend to get 1.1 million vaccinated every day over the Christmas period. Are they really going to try and run clinics Christmas day because i am getting the impression thats exactly what they are thinking.

So yeah. Its a numbers game.

NovemberNovemberDarkNights · 13/12/2021 00:17

@43leftfeet

What's missing from this conversation, and I don't understand why Labour isn't hammering this point - the hospitals wouldn't be at such risk of being overwhelmed if the Tories hadn't been underfunding them and carving the NHS up for privatisation for the last however-long-it-is-now they've been in power. (Feels like decades)
Because that's not what THIS conversation is about & because that's not going to be remedied in a few weeks.

milkyaqua · 13/12/2021 00:18

@NeedAHoliday2021

I don’t get it and wonder if part of it is political fear mongering - family in North America aren’t hearing the same as us and it’s much more positive out there.
It's been designated a Variant of Concern by WHO - that is not political. The UK already has substantial cases, and the US are just starting to pick up cases; mask mandates are back in NYC. Globally, countries are responding to this new VOC with quiet alarm.
SusieBob · 13/12/2021 00:21

Infection rates are exponential, severity is linear. NHS capacity is fixed.

If you have a much more infectious virus then it is going to rip through the population in a far quicker time so out of the complete population you may end up with less people critically ill overall, but those who are will get ill in a much more compressed timescale and so we end up with a health service unable to cope as well as a country full of people who might not be in hospital but unable to work as they isolate.

It's a potential absolute shitstorm.

PrincessNutNuts · 13/12/2021 00:23

@Fluffysocks88

And surely by now they must have dime data about how it affects elderly/vulnerable in SA? Surely if it is so transmissible, at least some of that demographic will have been infected by now?
Something like 65% of the population in SA in under 35.

And just like here, it takes time for cases to move up the age groups.

There are so many factors that might be giving SA less of an outbreak than we will get - the age profile of the population is just one, population genetics, population density, lifestyle factors such as spending more time outdoors, the vaccines used, even the warmer dryer weather there all have an effect.

godmum56 · 13/12/2021 00:23

[quote NovemberNovemberDarkNights]@43leftfeet

What's missing from this conversation, and I don't understand why Labour isn't hammering this point - the hospitals wouldn't be at such risk of being overwhelmed if the Tories hadn't been underfunding them and carving the NHS up for privatisation for the last however-long-it-is-now they've been in power. (Feels like decades)
Because that's not what THIS conversation is about & because that's not going to be remedied in a few weeks.[/quote]
the underfunding, carve up started with Tony Blair. I rememeber, i was working there

PrincessNutNuts · 13/12/2021 00:25

@RedToothBrush

Its a numbers game.

Before covid ever came along the government had contingency plans for a mass flu outbreak.

This isnt because they expect it to be deadly, its because of the numbers likely to be off work at the same time.

A shortage of key workers because they are off sick could risk critical infrastructure and services. It only takes an illness to be mild but to affect a huge percentage of the population at the same time to cause that problem.

We talk about the NHS having capacity issues - part of that driven by staff shortages, but it also everything from teachers, nuclear workers, delivery drivers, food production lines etc.

What we are hearing about omicron is multiple cases of how 1 person has infected 30, 40, 50 or even more people in one place at the same time. Imagine that happens at your local supermarket forcing it close. And thats replicated at A&E or the water treatment plant or the amazon warehouse multiple times across the country.

That alone is scary enough.

And we don't know that omicron is milder yet. What if its not.

We know that 3 jabs is perhaps the best hope to stop a critical infrastructure failure in a few weeks. Even a lockdown might not work well against omicron because its such a transmitable variant, precisely because key workers will still be required to work.

I think the government essentially telling everyone to drop everything and focus on getting a booster is a telling indicator of just how critical this is.

I am still trying to get my head around how they intend to get 1.1 million vaccinated every day over the Christmas period. Are they really going to try and run clinics Christmas day because i am getting the impression thats exactly what they are thinking.

So yeah. Its a numbers game.

It's not like me to be negative RTB but surely it's an impossible target?