What are the chances of lockdown this Christmas?

[43leftfeet]

I've been away this weekend (UK, but I've been distracted and not following the news).

I see there's been talk of Johnson announcing a "ban on Christmas" possibly, around the 17th - or not, depending on what happens with Omicron - is that about right?

I know we can't know yet what's going to happen, but what are people's feelings?

What do you think the restrictions, if any, are likely to be in England & Wales & in Scotland?

Apparently not @CallmeHendricks, it looks as though I'm the only one!

@CallmeHendricks when push comes to shove yes. No one is going to starve their kids so other peoples kids can eat. But yes my family can put up with restrictions if it stops thousands of toddlers and babies ending up in hospital.
Do I want restrictions? No I don't. I am totally dreading the possibility of any. But we would survive.

I expect the government thinks we are in the first box right now, and will be in the second box about December 18th.

So I won’t be surprised if the Prime Minister tells everyone what they want to hear on December 18th, then retracts it for at least some of us a few days later.

Like last year.

We don’t know enough about omicron yet to know exactly what’s going to happen - but based on that mutation profile I don’t see how it can be good news.

The usual “too little, too late” approach is going to cut even less mustard with omicron than it did with delta or alpha or original covid.

Wouldn't the problem be the same we had in the previous lockdowns that you can't shield one group of people (be they the elderly, CEV or in this case potentially children) and have everyone else carry on as if nothing was happening. Anyone, even if personally low risk, mixing increases infection rates and those infections will trickle down to all age groups because some people have no choice about staying away from others - for example if someone is a key worker and needs to use public transport, then they risk taking the virus home anyway and infecting someone vulnerable they live with.

The trouble is that children would suffer from the isolation which would have deep impact including long term.

Anyway hopefully it won’t be the case with the risk analysis

@MarshaBradyo

The trouble is that children would suffer from the isolation which would have deep impact including long term.

Anyway hopefully it won’t be the case with the risk analysis

Yes, this is all hypothetical as there's no reason to think that'll happen.

Doubt Government will make the call and 'cancel Xmas' again. Firstly projections are showing we should be able to make it to 25th without being in complete meltdown cases wise. Secondly they don't have the data they need from SA yet. They won't follow Norway & Ireland and pull things back.

They'll leave it too late, and lockdown in January (if they do)

I doubt it. Sunak knows the country can't afford another one. I think restrictions regarding indoor mixing will be back in the new year but I'll be carrying on visiting people and having them round as I please.

@CallmeHendricks

"I read something only this morning about South African scientists being baffled by the reaction in the UK."

Are they also baffled by the reaction in all the other countries who have closed their borders?

Yes, so she said. The UK got a particular mention from Dr Coetzee though

This thread is highlighting the fact that, really, everyone is out for themselves.

Throughout the pandemic, much of the vitriol has been towards the older generation, the CEV, the disabled etc - ie “why should we put our lives on hold for them, if they stay at home then they’ll be safe”.

Now that there is the small possibility that younger people could be at risk it’s “I don’t know any young people, why should I put my life on hold?”

I don’t think there will be a Christmas lockdown - I think all of the advisors know that fatigue has set in and that a large proportion would not follow it.

I think they will use the Christmas break to continue assessing data. And that they will reassess around the second or third week of January - in terms of hospitalisation/booster uptake/ages of those affected.

Third week of January could possibly be the decider with regards to how things progress.

All I’d say for now is, I’m really trying to minimise how much all of the constant speculation affects me. Being in a state of “alert” constantly isn’t great. And I get that this can be easier said than done!

I really don’t think they will lockdown for Christmas. But, for those that are currently planning to be away from home (visiting relatives, on holiday, etc) then it’s understandably a concern at the back of your minds.

To lessen the worry, maybe take a few steps to ensure you’re covered. Depending on the size of your immediate family/home situation - have one or two chickens in the freezer (no one can really tell the difference between chicken and turkey). Get some frozen veg, roast potatoes, Yorkshire’s etc. You’ll probably not need it for Christmas Day, but at least you know you’re covered if needed at the last minute - and, if not, then you’ve got food for a couple of roast dinners in the new year.

[quote julieca]@PinkSparklyPussyCat I was not talking about your relatives. Just your assertion that you will always put your family first. Yes that is selfish.[/quote]
It isn't. People care about their own family more than strangers. That is normal and the "selfish" argument is pathetic now.

“This thread is highlighting the fact that, really, everyone is out for themselves.

Throughout the pandemic, much of the vitriol has been towards the older generation, the CEV, the disabled etc - ie “why should we put our lives on hold for them, if they stay at home then they’ll be safe”.

Now that there is the small possibility that younger people could be at risk it’s “I don’t know any young people, why should I put my life on hold?””

That is unfair. What people are saying on this thread is more like “there is a limit to how much I will see my loved ones suffer, beyond which I will break rules”

@Furries

I agree, there is a lot of everyone out for themselves - and sadly turning into a ‘survival of the fittest’ type situation.

The pro choice, anti restriction type arguments of many on here - if we all followed that thinking - what would the outcome be? And unfathomably high death toll, a collapsed NHS that can’t provide even the most basic services, millions of vulnerable people dead - but those with healthy immune systems/or just fortunate would survive. I genuinely think we’ve got to a point where people don’t care and their personal freedom is more important. At least - that is if you read Mumsnet. IRL I can see that most people are taking heed.

I’ll just do what is advised over Xmas, and work things out around that. It was a Zoom Christmas last year, sent presents through the post. My Mum said it was far less stressful then having us all round at hers! So if it comes to it - we’ll do the same again. Not sure why people make such a huge fuss over Xmas anyway - not many people are religious, just an excuse for a huge bit of gluttony and waste.

So because you were ok with how Christmas was last year you think everyone else should be too? I’m not sure you’re practising what you preach in terms of consideration for others.

I really don’t know how people have the nerve to call other people “out for themselves” whilst at the same time only calling for restrictions that they don’t find so difficult to follow.

@RichTeaRichTea I think their are a significant amount of people making a huge fuss about it because it’s just another reason to moan about restrictions/what about my personal freedom etc etc. Restrictions are needed because otherwise people will die. It’s that simple.
So you adapt Christmas - and stop moaning and get on with it.

I have quietly ditched all the selfish gits over the years

I'm sure they're gutted.

@RichTeaRichTea I’m following ALL restrictions - even the ones I don’t like. I don’t think anyone wants them.

I get it Thismonkeysgonetolidl, you don’t understand and you don’t want to understand.

@RichTeaRichTea I don’t think you understand either.

And I also think you don’t want to understand.

People dying, losing their lives, losing loved ones over Christmas, people needing the NHS over Xmas IS the priority.

Your gluttony and personal freedom is NOT the priority.

When you have seen the impact of both covid itself and lockdowns, as I have in my work, you realise that it’s not about moaning or “personal freedom” for so many people, it is much more serious than that. Telling people to “stop moaning and adapt” is unhelpful at best. It just means that this particular restriction is manageable for you - great.

Virtually nil. But I think we might go back to social distancing in shops etc in January.

This isn’t anything to do with my Christmas. I’m an HCP, I know what covid is doing. But I also see the fallout of lockdowns and restrictions that people think are “easy, no hardship” because they simply don’t have the imagination to think beyond how it affects them - exactly what they accuse those who struggle with restrictions of doing.