I feel like we need some perspective of what’s going on at the moment.
All data from the Office for National Statistics Covid website.
Cases have risen 1% in the last week….but the number of tests has also risen by 5%. Generally the more we test the more cases we’ll find.
The number of daily hospital admissions dropped over the course of November to 6.49 per 100,000 people. For context this was 15.6 per 100,000 at the end of November 2020.
It is the elderly driving hospital admissions and not the young. Under 24’s are being admitted at a rate of 1.96 per 100,000 and over 75’s 48.92 per 100,000. The rate for over 75’s has reduced by about 55% since February. There’s also virtually zero patients in hospital with “normal” flu.
Deaths with Covid have dropped by 5% in the last week.
Vaccinating the elderly, vulnerable and those with underlying health conditions has absolutely been successful in reducing the chance of them becoming seriously ill and dying. Lockdown’s protected them before the vaccine and the vaccines and boosters are protecting them now.
Trying to vaccinate the entire country and the world will not stop Covid. The vaccines are not sterilizing - they do not prevent infection and transmission. They may help to reduce it but their primary function is to prevent those at higher risk becoming seriously ill. There has never been a vaccine for a respiratory virus that prevents infection (please let me know if I’ve missed any!).
Coronavirus’ mutate rapidly. Given there is no way the earth’s population can all be successfully vaccinated at the same time - by the time we finish, the vaccines efficacy will have reduced in those we started with -
there will be variants, there will be mutations and we will continue to have cases. And that’s before we worry about trying to vaccinate animals as they also carry the virus. What we can hope for is that it will mutate into the equivalent of the common cold.
Given we have a vaccine to protect the vulnerable, vaccination should be about personal risk and benefit. As a 34 year old with no underlying health conditions and a healthy BMI, my chance of catching and dying of covid is 0.0001% (QCovid Risk Calculator). Based on MHRA yellow card data (and yes, I know there’s arguments about the accuracy but that’s the only data source I know of), the possibility of an adverse reaction is somewhere between 0.2-0.9% and possibility of dying 0.001% - ten times higher than my chance of dying from Covid. Now if we took smallpox (we can’t have a covid thread without mentioning it), my chance of dying from catching it would be about 30% and the chance of dying from the vaccine 1%. With odds like that, no-one would need to talk about mandates or passports.
So what do I think we should do? Be grateful that we have a vaccine which people are able to make a personal decision on whether to take and which significantly reduces the chance of serious illness and death for the vulnerable and high risk. Be grateful that the virus poses very little threat to the young and healthy. Rather than trying to out vaccinate a respiratory virus, which will continue to mutate, use our doctors and nurses time/resources to have face to face appointments to ensure people with health conditions are getting diagnosed, the right treatments and the right support. Prioritise vaccines globally for those who are at higher risk before we worry about our young and healthy. Do everything we can to lead a healthy lifestyle - lose weight, get outside in the fresh air, exercise, eat well. This will help the NHS both short term and long term.
Finally, debate is good and science wouldn’t be science without challenge or scrutiny. Division and name calling because someone has a different opinion, is vaccine hesitant or has a different perception of risk is unnecessary . Let’s focus on love, hope and what we can be grateful for.