from the Guardian
"Prof Andrew Hayward, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) from University College London, has described the new restrictions in England as “an essential first move.”
PA Media quote him telling Sky News “virus is moving very fast so it’s important that we react to that fast”.
He said a doubling time of every two to three days was “very fast” and “you’ll get a very large peak”.
“And it’s a bit like if you think of a month’s worth of rain falling in a few days, that leads to flooding and it’s a similar type of scenario … we can reduce that by reducing social mixing and allow time to slow the virus down and get vaccine into more people’s arms.”
He said Plan B measures would “slow the spread” but “it’s not going to turn it around”, adding: “I think you would need much more severe restrictions to turn it around, but I think what the encouraging thing is that we’ve started to see, through some of the laboratory data, is sort of that third dose of vaccine is really providing much better immunity, whereas just with the two doses, it’s not really so good.
“So this idea of slowing it down ... more social distancing, not going to work if you don’t have to, not going on public transport to go to work when you don’t have to, will make a difference.
“I think it’s very difficult to predict whether that’s going to be enough but I think it’s an essential first move.” "