Omicron New Variant Thread 2 *title edited by MNHQ at OP's request*

[Thewiseoneincognito]

Continuation of the last thread

@chesirecat99

If someone states confidently they can solve this I’m interested to hear how.

I think you have probably been on enough threads with PrincessNutNuts, @MarshaBradyo, to already know exactly how she would "solve" the pandemic

Ha I got something about Steps concerts I’m not sure I’ve heard it yet ;

Hi guys,

Busy day today, so can't stop.

Having been here a while I know that some types of posters get ruder, and angrier, and less logical, as we get closer to stronger covid restrictions.

Indeed I have learned to recognise an increase in posters venting their frustrations on other posters as an indicator that we are getting closer to stronger restrictions.

I'm not a fan of Mumsnet deleting posts. I think a poster's record should stand - whether they are generally polite, and connect on a discussion level - or rude and unpleasant, and tend to play the man not the ball.

I'm not great at remembering other poster's names, myself, but if people are familiar with my posting history, then they know that I think a vaccine-only approach won't be enough, and NPIs will also be necessary.

They should also know I'm not wedded to any particular NPIs, and that I think anything that has been proven to work should be considered.

And that a multi-layered approach of multiple NPIs is always necessary.

My idea of solving this problem is that we can all live as normal life as it is reasonable to expect in the midst of a global pandemic.

(A full rundown on what I think that would look like for me is in one of my earlier posts.)

Cheers.

Nope, I haven’t been angry or attacking just straight questions.

Bemused by replies which evade rather than answer.

Good to see Plan B didn’t happen in November as confidently stated by some too.

Indeed I have learned to recognise an increase in posters venting their frustrations on other posters as an indicator that we are getting closer to stronger restrictions

I think there is a lot of truth in this.

This is the current set of NPIs South Africa has

www.gov.za/covid-19/about/coronavirus-covid-19-alert-level-1

Princess for what it is worth I think you are the very opposite of a doom mongered - I think it is in your nature to try and solve everything in front of you and that you genuinely believe that there is package of NPIs alongside vaccines that can get us through this.

But I think we are in the business end of having to play a numbers game. What restrictions have enough of an effect to try spread it as much as possible. Masks seem to have around 10% impact - what else can we do that is effective without causing too much negative impact.

The discussion now I guess is around vaccine passports and vaccine mandates because I dont think that is far off coming

I do remember all the Schools. Must. Not. Close last December. I think you're right there.

Sort of, if we say it (and if maybe the odd pressure group blitzes social media) It. Shall. Be. So.

@herecomesthsun

I do remember all the Schools. Must. Not. Close last December. I think you're right there.

Sort of, if we say it (and if maybe the odd pressure group blitzes social media) It. Shall. Be. So.

The opposite of repeating they will I suppose…

Many do that too re lockdown and schools.

Threads each week on either

Not many people are all that keen on lockdown now that so many people are vaccinated and boosted and also we have schooled our kids through the most difficult months really, when knowledge of and treatments for covid were pretty limited.

They need to be in school as much as possible (barring very particular circumstances, which I hope won't happen).

Mitigations in schools, now that does still seem like a good idea, since covid doesn't seem about to disappear and some of the underlying issues remain.

But I think that is also works the same way herecomesthesun which is kind of my point. That if only we do this or do that it will all be ok that if only we find the correct level of restrictions that we can find our way of here.

I'm not a fan of masks in schools personally because they're hot and uncomfortable and they do change the way people interact which I don't think is helpful to the learning experience.

I can see that things like ventilation/air filters could be a way of reducing spread without actually impacting on the classroom experience. I am a school governor so have put forward the idea of purchasing a filter for each classroom although we will need to fundraise to achieve that as there is no central funding available. If we are going to commit to that fundraising (and get parents on board) then there need to be convincing evidence of the benefits.

@Sunshinegirl82

I'm not a fan of masks in schools personally because they're hot and uncomfortable and they do change the way people interact which I don't think is helpful to the learning experience.

I can see that things like ventilation/air filters could be a way of reducing spread without actually impacting on the classroom experience. I am a school governor so have put forward the idea of purchasing a filter for each classroom although we will need to fundraise to achieve that as there is no central funding available. If we are going to commit to that fundraising (and get parents on board) then there need to be convincing evidence of the benefits.

I agree re masks in classrooms but that’s interesting re raising funds

Is it a lot? Hundreds or thousands type ballpark

@Motorina thank you for all you do flowers glitterball flowers.

I hope you get some sleep tonight .

I think they're likely to being in guidance about wfh very soon. A lot of employers (like mine) are quite risk averse and would straight away bring that in and cancel all our Christmas parties. They've already said that that's what their plan b is. Vaccine passports seem less useful to combat a variant that's infecting vaccinated people too.

@MarshaBradyo

My initial research suggests we'd be looking at about £500 per unit plus associated ongoing running costs.

Our school is a fairly small single entry primary but we'd still need 7 for each classroom to have one so somewhere between £3k and £4k for the initial purchase plus some money from the budget for electricity/filters etc.

It’s actually possible to DIY perfectly effective air filters for schools, there are American videos on YouTube. I think it’s Deepti Gurdansani whose PTA has offered to buy filters for her DC’s school and the LA (or academy, not sure?) will not let them.

I’m not sure anyone, qualified or otherwise, has ever said if only we do X it will be alright. Just that at least if we do X we stand a chance of halving/reducing by 20% (or whatever) the number of people having to isolate, hospitalisations, ICU admissions deaths and long covid cases. Which tends to be a good thing.

By YouTube videos I mean ones made by air filtration engineers, in fact the one I saw had the kids making them (under supervision), they’re incredibly simple and apparently would do the job admirably.

I guess @Firefliess that will depend on how effective it is at preventing serious illness.

If you aim is to keep the health services from becoming overwhelmed then it makes sense and gets more people vaccinated.

As long as it comes alongside as vaccinated or negative LFT that doesnt bother me.

Mandatory vaccinations do however bother me a lot (and I am double and will get my booster in January)

The trouble is that if we do X and that slows transmission by 20% that doesn't mean 20% less people catch covid - it just means it takes a little longer for everyone who's going to catch it to do so. Takes the pressure off the NHS a little (if it's the older people you slow it down through, less so when it's children)

SAGE’s latest minutes agree with @PrincessNutNuts

twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1467923134787600396?s=21

@Firefliess

I think they're likely to being in guidance about wfh very soon. A lot of employers (like mine) are quite risk averse and would straight away bring that in and cancel all our Christmas parties. They've already said that that's what their plan b is. Vaccine passports seem less useful to combat a variant that's infecting vaccinated people too.

I’ve noticed a few companies switch already, I wfh anyway but Dh’s is switching and has cancelled Christmas party. I think the behaviour change is happening a fair bit already.

Sunshine interesting I guess it comes down to people who would have to contribute, how keen they are

Yes and No @JanglyBeads I think SAGE are saying what @Firefliess is saying that anything we do now is simply to continued what we have been trying to go with DELTA

Princess is right that we need a set of NPIs alongside the vaccines and booster programme. Where I disagree is the belief that it will make it all ok and we can somehow fix this. Pandemics aren't fixable - viruses are not something that is broken (even if the mutation element gives it that appearance). This isnt something that if we just put a little more effort into we somehow overcome. All we can do is see how much we can manage it and try to get through it. Which I guess

I felt annoyed today .

A work colleague was out last weekend ( not this weekend) with a friend, who on the Monday discovered through LFT that they are positive. But when I asked if they had been contacted by track and trace in case it was the omicron variant , they said no because the friend had not bothered to have a pcr.

Honestly they had been in a very busy bar with many other diners / people drinking in a small room and now none of those people know they have been exposed , and subsequently decide who to visit or what to do.

It makes me cross .

I always said a lot of the british public don’t have an ounce of common sense and are very quick to blame everyone or everything else , rather than take their own responsibility.

The problem here is what scientists want isn't necessarily what is politically viable and doable in practice. Precisely because they are not politicians and its not their job to sell an idea to the public at large.

You have to understand the idealised gap there is that this creates.

Its very well saying we should do this restriction, if you have no way of implementing in in practice. If politicians won't vote for it or support the government you have a problem.

@RedToothBrush

The problem here is what scientists want isn't necessarily what is politically viable and doable in practice. Precisely because they are not politicians and its not their job to sell an idea to the public at large.

You have to understand the idealised gap there is that this creates.

Its very well saying we should do this restriction, if you have no way of implementing in in practice. If politicians won't vote for it or support the government you have a problem.

I think that is a huge issue part of the issue. I am very much about detail and practicality so that is always my go to with any proposal (and was always my issue with zero covid as a proposed way forward in the U.K. and/or a global attempt at zero covid). Ideas are wonderful things but on their own they achieve nothing at all.

Much better to have three things that do a bit and are actually doable than one thing that would work fantastically on paper but is impossible to implement.

Well, I suppose what the scientists say is
‘If we do not implement this and this, our models show X number of cases in Y months.’

And then govt have to decide what to do with those predictions.