Are we ahead of Europe or are they ahead of us?

[1990butfeel21]

Can't work it but I am filled with dread

Our pattern’s different because we haven’t had restrictions. Some commentators think a winter surge is likely.

@SickAndTiredAgain

It is not a competition.

OP doesn’t mean ahead as in “doing better”. She means ahead in time. It’s been well explained on this thread why it’s not as simple as that, but for a long time this sort of thing was referenced on the news etc. Even last week Boris said that Europe’s current increase could come here, suggesting they are ahead of us (ie they are experiencing our future) when for a while before that I thought the general belief was that, because we opened up earlier, our peak was earlier and therefore Europe’s current peak is our past, not a predictor of what we will have in a month. That’s what OP means.

As I said, there are good explanations on this thread as to why that’s over simplistic. But OP didn’t mean, “are we doing better than Europe, are we winning”

We may have another smaller peak driven mainly by primary age children but not a huge peak being experienced or expected in Europe, simply because of the numbers game.

If you get covid, you are unlikely to get it again within 3 to 6 months of having it. This combined with 1st (and 2nd jabs where relevant) for kids and the booster programme for over 40s which also seems to help first doses and initial research suggest does not wane as quickly. And the UK having the 12 week gap to begin with makes a huge difference.

In Europe where they did 2nd jabs after 4 weeks, you will be much more likely to be overdue for a booster now. For example, if you got your first dose in April and your second in May then you are due your booster in November. In the uk if had your first in April and your second in July you should have immunity until January.

So the situation is that the % of the population in the UK who can get covid in the next 6 weeks is much lower than other places and thats what makes a Christmas Lockdown much less likely here than other places.

As I say we are much better placed going into Christmas - this is fundamentally a different concept to 'doing better' and it being a competition.

Basically its a numbers game that means we have a fairly good idea of where we will be in six weeks.

Talk of trouble ahead is more about concern about booster uptake not being as good as hoped - but thats more a post Christmas issue anyway.

During the summer, one of the government talks to us specifically said (by Chris Whitty, I think) that we wanted our third wave out of the way before winter arrived as restrictions would just delay the inevitable so it was better to get it out of the way before the NHS also had normal winter illness to cope with.

@1990butfeel21

I mean in this current wave, will we be in lockdown in a few weeks?

We’ve chosen a different approach which means we are in a different place and no I doubt we will be.

@sashagabadon

Woman on radio just said europe in trouble now as they were too slow to open in the summer to allow a level of cases to spread to boost their immunity, as the U.K. did. Sounds like our “freedom day” was the correct policy decision at that time despite all the “Petri dish of the World” comments. That and our vaccine coverage and booster program is well targeted to higher risk groups rather than a more open generalist approach. As a pp said up thread, not all vaccinations are equal,

Yes we got it in spades as per usual. Chris Whitty is pretty good though and I’d trust him over others who criticised.

Interesting the WHO has set its aim on Europe with warnings of high death rates if no action. Glad to be somewhat out of firing line.

While I fully understood & was very compliant of lockdowns, I did always ponder that all they seemed to do was cause an enormous spike in cases once restrictions were removed.. and then yo-yo us back into lockdown. Whereas now, we just bob along. A little up & down but no major spikes.. with boosters & vastly improving treatments, this to me seems like the better way to go! 🤷🏼‍♀️

Some of the posts on this thread are not going to age well...

@PrincessNutNuts

Some of the posts on this thread are not going to age well...

How's your track record looking?

We test a lot more.

PrincessNutNuts

Some of the posts on this thread are not going to age well...

Because you can see the future and know exactly what’s going to happen?

I forgot some people think they know more than the CMO not sure why though

The Prime Minister said in the last coronavirus briefing that we don't know when this wave may wash up on our shores and refused to rule out a Christmas lockdown.

Maybe he remembers what a twat he made of himself last Christmas and doesn’t want to repeat the experience?

^PrincessNutNuts
Some of the posts on this thread are not going to age well...^

You mean like your own consistently scaremongering ones ?

Whereas now, we just bob along. A little up & down but no major spikes.. with boosters & vastly improving treatments, this to me seems like the better way to go!

It means the public being inured to a certain level of death though doesn't it ?

It means the public being inured to a certain level of death though doesn't it

Yes. Because people die in their thousands every year. Always have. Never have the rest of the healthy population been asked to torpedo their education, their lifestyle, their occupation, their economy to “protect” them.

@sashagabadon

Much derided Sweden will be an interesting comparison to make. I haven’t looked at what’s happening there for ages but they aren’t making the news particularly at the moment so assume that is because they are doing “better” than their neighbours and no one wants to point that out

Our infection rate has pretty much flatlined since the summer.

experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

^PrincessNutNuts
Some of the posts on this thread are not going to age well...^

You mean like your own consistently scaremongering ones ?

I sort of half admire your tenacity Princess - the lone crusader now that Nanny, Tealights and the other one seem to have sunk without trace into their bog of gloom.

@PrincessNutNuts

Some of the posts on this thread are not going to age well...

Remind me again what date are we due to hit 100k cases a day?

Yes. Because people die in their thousands every year. Always have. Never have the rest of the healthy population been asked to torpedo their education, their lifestyle, their occupation, their economy to “protect” them.

I am well aware that people die in their thousands every year, I see people who are dying every week, death is one of the absolutes of life.
What I was trying to say was the the UK by and large appear to have accepted a certain number of deaths will occur, it would be interesting to know what figure would make it uncomfortable ?

I forgot some people think they know more than the CMO not sure why though

The CMO was the one recommending people go swimming and join exercise classes to get fit during the middle of full lockdown with every swimming pool and gym in the country closed, and you unable to meet more than one person outdoors. Even I can know more than him that that is impossible, so I have almost no faith in his abilities.

But in terms of flattening in the curve, I think it was clearly a good idea to have infections released as we have, in fact, I think it's possibly been a bit too slow as protection has waned faster than thought in the vaccinated, so we're a bit behind in boosters and it would've been good in retrospect to have had more kids infected with the protection there - but certainly the expectation that the vaccines were this poor against infection (possibly as much to do with delta as to waning) wasn't in the early data.

I think our initial 12 week gap between the first and second vaccine has helped prolong immunity and although a gamble has paid off.

What I was trying to say was the the UK by and large appear to have accepted a certain number of deaths will occur

What's the alternative?? no actually don't answer that if the word begins with L ....

@Theplantisgrowing What's the alternative??

Honestly I think it's going to be a case of watchful waiting, hopefully because so many people have had their vaccines, and approx 10 million of the population have now had covid, we can get through the next few months without any huge increases in either cases, hospitalisations or deaths. Not perfect by any means but a whole lot better than this time last year.

frumpety

Yes agree, we are as best placed as we could be given the circumstances