Are we ahead of Europe or are they ahead of us?

[1990butfeel21]

Can't work it but I am filled with dread

well said @frumpety

@AbundanceofKatherines
So what what went wrong was basically weak and ineffective right wing government. Continuously blinded by short lived victories and believing if people just “get on with things” it will all sort itself out. Sounds familiar for some reason.

There was a woman on the news yesterday who said this was our few months ago delta wave hitting Austria and Germany. We are on a different path now to them so shouldn’t follow suit.

@EileenGC the U.K. has given significantly more booster doses than Germany. Over 14 million so far in the U.K. whereas it was reported in the news last night that Germany has given 4.5 million. It’s also not just about the numbers. It’s actually not great that over 20’s have already been invited for a booster if that means that the older age groups haven’t already had their boosters. In the U.K. we are strict about working our way down through the most risky groups (a combination of age and other vulnerabilities).

@1990butfeel21

I mean in this current wave, will we be in lockdown in a few weeks?

In a word 'no'.

We are better placed in terms of how many vaccinations and boosters we've done, when we've done them and how many people have had covid and when they've had it going into Winter.

That doesn't mean we won't get another peak but each subsequent peak should be smaller in the uk.

This was always a long game and there are strategic and logistical issues with keeping case numbers very low - it reduces vaccine take up and urgency and it means there is less natural immunity. Which sounds great early on but does cause more problems further down the line cos you can only delay an pandemic, you can't stop it.

The uk hasn't handled a lot of things well, but I do think we will see a degree of a levelling of that playing field this winter.

We haven't really had civil unrest over covid which we have seen elsewhere. Thats something I don't expect to change. If we had, had trouble in that way I think things would spiral faster in the uk than elsewhere too because of our national mentality.

A lot of Brits have holidays booked for winter in the EU. That could get interesting...

@EileenGC I would also like to point out that there was nothing anti-European about the news article I watched last night. It looked at various different European countries and how things were relatively normal in Spain and Portugal (referring to their high vaccination rates) whereas Austria was going into a full lockdown and had lower vaccination rates. It was an interesting article.

It’s actually not great that over 20’s have already been invited for a booster if that means that the older age groups haven’t already had their boosters.

I agree that each country should be working their way down through the more vulnerable and elderly groups. But what should they do if there’s not enough uptake in those groups? Waste the jabs?

I should have also mentioned I’m in a small urban state where the population is much, much younger than the national average. All over 60’s I know have booked their boosters already. So it’s now on to younger groups.

Practical degrees means extra protective measures as they don’t want to switch to online teaching. Even during lockdowns, practical courses were delivered 100% in person.

Germany has always had a different criteria when setting out priority groups as well. At the beginning, after doing the over 80’s, chronically vulnerable and healthcare staff, they vaccinated teachers, the police and supermarket workers. Many of whom were healthy 20 and 30 year olds.

They’ve chosen to also prioritise the younger groups that are more likely to come into contact with lots of people. Groups that the country can’t afford to send home sick when a new wave hits, and have understaffed hospitals, schools and supermarkets as a result. We’re still doing close contact isolation. You can’t send home a whole team of nurses or doctors, or take the risk that they might still be incubating the virus despite negative tests. You need these people as protected as possible so they can do their jobs and put no extra pressure on the system.

Compare that to a 75 year old who sees a few friends and family each week but otherwise maintains a pretty low risk lifestyle (I appreciate not all 75 year olds fit this description).

[quote BunsyGirl]@EileenGC I would also like to point out that there was nothing anti-European about the news article I watched last night. It looked at various different European countries and how things were relatively normal in Spain and Portugal (referring to their high vaccination rates) whereas Austria was going into a full lockdown and had lower vaccination rates. It was an interesting article.[/quote]
Oh definitely, I think this type of analysis is very interesting and necessary, and it will be fascinating to look at out in a few years’ time, to see how each strategy and country turned out. Like I imagine this article showed, one thing is sure: the way out of this is vaccines. Get the jab people, because otherwise we won’t come out the other side for a long time…

The premise that somehow covid will be the same in all countries is an invalid one to start with. Why would a virus experience in the UK be the same as other land masses thousands of miles away with completely different situations? How does that make sense?

@EileenGC. I never said jabs should be wasted but it is a concern if healthy people in their 20’s are having their vaccinations because older people, who are more vulnerable, have not taken them up.

@frumpety

We are all living through a worldwide pandemic. Until nowhere has a problem, we all have a problem.

This.

It is not a competition.

It is not a competition.

OP doesn’t mean ahead as in “doing better”. She means ahead in time. It’s been well explained on this thread why it’s not as simple as that, but for a long time this sort of thing was referenced on the news etc. Even last week Boris said that Europe’s current increase could come here, suggesting they are ahead of us (ie they are experiencing our future) when for a while before that I thought the general belief was that, because we opened up earlier, our peak was earlier and therefore Europe’s current peak is our past, not a predictor of what we will have in a month. That’s what OP means.

As I said, there are good explanations on this thread as to why that’s over simplistic. But OP didn’t mean, “are we doing better than Europe, are we winning”

I just heard on the radio that lockdowns in Europe are due to them just getting the Delta variation now. We got it in June.

Woman on radio just said europe in trouble now as they were too slow to open in the summer to allow a level of cases to spread to boost their immunity, as the U.K. did.
Sounds like our “freedom day” was the correct policy decision at that time despite all the “Petri dish of the World” comments.
That and our vaccine coverage and booster program is well targeted to higher risk groups rather than a more open generalist approach. As a pp said up thread, not all vaccinations are equal,

I think we are ahead. We opened up in summer without restrictions. We had covid at the end of the school holidays so did lots of other families. Those that didn't have it then seem to be getting it now. Which means our cases have been more spread out. Europe generally kept their restrictions and it is my guess that they are now seeing their exit wave. We have had more cases generally and I would argue this has created some immunity especially in places like London and the north that were hit hard early on.

Isn't it the case that until fairly recently, Alpha was still the dominant strain on the continent? And Delta is driving this new wave?

In which case this is their 'Delta wave', which we have already ridden/are currently riding (but with a better vaccine/booster rollout).

Given there are no restrictions at the moment, I doubt the UK would go fully into lockdown within weeks

But this is absolutely what has happened in many places in Europe, so it is a completely reasonable question.

As noted vaccination rates are broadly similar, so vaccination is not a difference.

What is a difference, is that the UK has had 4 months of over 1% a week positivity, so that's 20%+ of the population protected also via recent infection, The European countries locking down do not have that, and with only the low quality mitigations they need to lockdown (the only effective mitigation is lockdown, masks might be effective at reducing but only in situations where you are masked, as soon as you eat indoors, that's gone as a successful mitigation) they are far away.

With vaccination being poor at preventing infection, their "3G" systems have been particularly found out, as letting in vaccinated people who can spread it without testing just provides a route to infect all the unvaccinated who are also allowed to attend - the testing of unvaccinated only achieves little. Encouraging testing of everyone (as here) makes more sense - it doesn't prevent spread of course, there's nothing been shown anywhere to work other than lockdown to do that - but it does spread it out.

If you remember from the very first wave "flattening the curve" is the aim, so the UK has had a very flat curve over the last 3 months, but many European countries have not, they now have an explosion in cases, particularly as the weather also likely provides a transmission advantage to covid that wasn't there earlier in the UK.

So in terms of this wave, the UK is almost certainly "ahead", not behind. Of course, that doesn't mean that the next wave isn't going to be worse by the UK having an earlier one - making the mistake of comparing "instants" between countries has been done way too much.

Much derided Sweden will be an interesting comparison to make. I haven’t looked at what’s happening there for ages but they aren’t making the news particularly at the moment so assume that is because they are doing “better” than their neighbours and no one wants to point that out

In the UK people don’t even wear a mask or have to show anything to get in the pub, that’s a long way from a lockdown.

You are confusing "England" with "UK".

Not the same thing. Obviously.

In Scotland we are still expected to wear masks in supermarkets, libraries, banks, all indoor areas like cinemas, theatres, public transport. We have the covid passport which you have to show to go to a gig, the football or clubbing. Kids in secondary schools are all wearing masks all day in school. My 18 year old in first year at Uni is being allowed in-person sessions 3 times between September and the start of January.

However, given that Scotland's rates aren't much different from the rest of the UK, you could pretty much argue that all the mask-wearing, sanitising and passport thing makes precious little difference anyway.

@MLMshouldbeillegal thanks for reminding about this. I don't think it's possible to compare English/ Scottish rates though as the big driver seems to be return to school and our term dates are different to England. The vaccines for 12-15 year olds came a bit earlier in the spread for English schools too.
Also we haven't had the benefit of a half term fire break- our holidays are all different..
I think it's more a case of how bad would it be without those mitigation's!

@MLMshouldbeillegal same in Wales. I'm off to the rugby this afternoon and have downloaded my covid pass and packed my mask.

Wales rates are the highest in the UK and yet wearing masks is still required in shops, public transport etc (although the amount of people not doing so is startling).

I had Covid 2 weeks ago, nothing more than a light cold. I must admit it's reassuring that this probably gives me immunity for a few months.

In the early days of the pandemic we watched what happened in Europe and failed to act before it inevitable came to us.

What is a difference, is that the UK has had 4 months of over 1% a week positivity

I agree. This time I think maybe we have had such high rates for so long compared with the rest of Europe that they are behind us in terms of peaks and waves.

The other thing we have going for us is testing (though it pains me to say it). In the UK we test far more than anywhere in Europe. So I suspect our official infection numbers are likely to be much more accurate compared with many other countries where the R rate has been quietly growing.

@sirfredfredgeorge

Given there are no restrictions at the moment, I doubt the UK would go fully into lockdown within weeks

But this is absolutely what has happened in many places in Europe, so it is a completely reasonable question.

As noted vaccination rates are broadly similar, so vaccination is not a difference.

What is a difference, is that the UK has had 4 months of over 1% a week positivity, so that's 20%+ of the population protected also via recent infection, The European countries locking down do not have that, and with only the low quality mitigations they need to lockdown (the only effective mitigation is lockdown, masks might be effective at reducing but only in situations where you are masked, as soon as you eat indoors, that's gone as a successful mitigation) they are far away.

With vaccination being poor at preventing infection, their "3G" systems have been particularly found out, as letting in vaccinated people who can spread it without testing just provides a route to infect all the unvaccinated who are also allowed to attend - the testing of unvaccinated only achieves little. Encouraging testing of everyone (as here) makes more sense - it doesn't prevent spread of course, there's nothing been shown anywhere to work other than lockdown to do that - but it does spread it out.

If you remember from the very first wave "flattening the curve" is the aim, so the UK has had a very flat curve over the last 3 months, but many European countries have not, they now have an explosion in cases, particularly as the weather also likely provides a transmission advantage to covid that wasn't there earlier in the UK.

So in terms of this wave, the UK is almost certainly "ahead", not behind. Of course, that doesn't mean that the next wave isn't going to be worse by the UK having an earlier one - making the mistake of comparing "instants" between countries has been done way too much.

Yes, I completely agree.

England has followed a different strategy to a lot of countries in Europe. Whether the strategy in England will end up being "better" overall remains to be seen but it is a different strategy as opposed to doing the same strategy badly (if that makes sense!)

@1990butfeel21

I mean in this current wave, will we be in lockdown in a few weeks?

The Prime Minister said in the last coronavirus briefing that we don't know when this wave may wash up on our shores and refused to rule out a Christmas lockdown.

Scotland and Wales are both considering upping existing measures ( not sure about NI), so I think there is some concern that things could get worse here in the UK too. England seems to just be hoping it all goes away!