Why are things ' kicking off ' in Europe ?

[genuinequestion21]

Please excuse my ignorance. But why is Germany for example stressing so much about covid right now ?

I think we have more cases per 100 k than them and have been having high cases for months and we are still open and not ' that much ' talk about lockdown etc. It seems we are kind of just about ' OK '. Well at least we aren't going to plan B yet.

However in Germany there have been few cases and cases are now exploding and there's talk of lock downs etc.

Hospitals also seem to be full again. Whereas in the UK, they don't seem to be on the brink.

Why these differences ? Germany and UK have a very similar proportion of the population vaccinated. Is it because cases are seeming to go up very rapidly, whereas ours have been high but flat for ages ?

Why are their hospitals full again and ours are not ?

Please correct any factual information which is incorrect.

The best comparative data on the situation in the EU and the UK, in my opinion, is here: www.politico.eu/coronavirus-in-europe/

You can hover over the map to see the data for the country, and you also have the vaccination rates per country.

Interestingly, as a percentage of population, German and UK vaccination rates are more or less the same.

[quote frumpety]@EileenGC do you think the case rate might be even higher in Germany then ? if there hasn't been as much asymptomatic testing as we do in the UK ?
Also I get your point about the % of vaccinations, what age ranges have been offered the vaccine in Germany ? Here we are only just rolling out to the over 12's.[/quote]
There is testing now so all these high numbers ARE including asymptomatic cases, for a week now.

Germany are also vaccinating over 12s.

Eileen no we didn’t as it was the July peak pre winter

It is a different strategy but if it gets us through winter without restrictions I’ll be so relieved, really thankful to CMO etc for advising it

It was a decision that went against the many I very much hope it pans out. I get it’s uncertain still though.

Germany ado have a different approach which may also work re restrictions

I think you feel similar in that you don’t want them (I think?) so fingers crossed we both get that

[quote supermoonrising]@Claudethecat
It’s interesting watching from afar. Obviously people are aware of the barefaced lies, the cheating, narcissism, plotting etc. But do they admire it on some psychological level? Perhaps a bit like Trump in America - an “at least he’s interesting” mentality? Although even Trump wasn’t gifted a cutesy nickname![/quote]
I think he is pretty widely despised, even within the Tory party. I hear “that cunt Boris” far more often than “loveable rogue Boris”.

Why do people vote for him? Some because they like the Tory party and its policies and will put up with any frontman. Some because although they don’t really like him they hate Labour more. Some because they thought they were sticking it to the establishment (look I know that voting Tory, when you have already had a Tory government in power for ten years, isn’t sticking it to anybody, but I’m just reporting what people have said to me).

@EileenGC do you know how the Rhineland is doing overall at the moment ? I have frail elderly relatives there so do worry but heard yesterday they have had booster which was comforting.

@MarshaBradyo That would be interesting and I would really like to see adjustments for testing rates!

I am a big supporter of vaccines but less so of masks. I think that the current wave in Europe is starting to show that other mitigations are not so effective. Lockdown works but the consequences of it are too severe. The best thing to do is to have high vaccination rates and try to time opening up with a low incidence of other respiratory diseases…

Comparing mask wearing in Scotland and Germany is pointless.

In Scotland you can wear a piece of cloth, a visor, declare yourself exempt, and nothing will happen.

In Germany FFP2s are compulsory (now states also allow medical-grade but not everywhere), and you cannot declare yourself exempt. You need a letter from your doctor, and you will be challenged when entering the supermarket or getting on a bus if you aren’t wearing one. Some businesses don’t even allow for exemptions - you either wear a mask, or you don’t enter the building. Not saying I agree with this last point btw.

Cases are rising precisely because proper compulsory mask wearing was relaxed in the last 3-4 weeks. Some schools got rid of them, when obviously most teenagers aren’t fully vaccinated and therefore at a slightly higher risk of catching and spreading the virus. My company doesn’t require them when we’re working, and we’re also not testing anymore. Of course rates are going to go up when you eliminate masks that were, so far, pretty effective in reducing the spread slightly.

If FFP2 and medical masks - which medical professionals wear - are really that useless, I guess you’d all be happy for your surgeon and nurses to operate on you without wearing one?

We didn’t act in July because that was the strategy. Whether you agree with it or not. Our strategy was to accept there would be a natural peak in cases (all other measures were controlling the peaks and waves we can’t do this indefinitely).

We wanted that peak to be in summer and not winter. We chose not to continue with mitigations. Many of which are harmful to the economy and people’s livelihoods.

Other countries have chosen a different strategy.

England has had much higher rates of Covid for months so will have much higher rates of “wild disease” immunity, however temporary that may be. I do believe we will realise rates of reinfection are going to be much higher than previously thought, but these are very likely to be more mild than the original disease (unless a person’s body is weakened for other reasons).
German politics is much more cautious when it comes to Covid and their health service is stronger than the one in England. German politics is currently in transition as well so decision making at top level could be different than 12 months ago.
However, the English scientists are brilliant and world leading, that goes for epidemiology and behavioural science. I do not think England has got this wrong. Focus has been on vaccinating and revaccinating the most vulnerable throughout. Places like Germany and US will vaccinate all over 12s willing to be vaccinated (US under 12s now) - but really vaccinating a 13 year old unless they have health issues is only going to make a difference on a population scale if said 13 year old exposes unvaccinated vulnerable persons. From a behavioural perspective not vaccinating the youngsters actually incentivises their parents and grandparents to get their boosters asap which protects the health service. So I believe the English government has delayed deliberately

@Bagamoyo1 my point is that we’re are not at the top and haven’t been for a while (even with us doing so many tests). The OP was talking about it “kicking off” in Europe. Cases have been rising in Europe for weeks. It started in Eastern Europe and then moved across.

Here's some information on the vaccination situation in Germany (it's in German but the stats are quite easy to read, with judicious use of Google translate if required).

impfdashboard.de/

It's 67.9% of the total population (all age groups) that are fully vaccinated (according to the current definition of two doses) - 78.5 % of all 18s and over - and 85.8% of all 60s and over.
The point about the regional variation is (sadly) a valid one. Cases are currently markedly higher in the areas with under 70% of the population fully vaccinated than they are in the areas over.

[quote Volterra]**@EileenGC do you know how the Rhineland is doing overall at the moment ? I have frail elderly relatives there so do worry but heard yesterday they have had booster which was comforting.[/quote]
Rheinland as a state has slightly lower cases than the national average, and average hospitalisations. If you wanted to share the town/city your relatives are in I can look exact numbers up. I’m at the other end of the country so don’t know how local measures are being applied, but as it’s so close to Frankfurt/Köln the vaccination numbers will be higher than other rural regions like Saxony or Meck Pomm.

Logic says that not many deaths here in the UK from covid, and there will be far more deaths from other diseases, so we just learn to live with it by having vaccines/boosters to keep covid death rate down. But maybe Germany have a totally different view on it. We have to try not to get roped into their panic.

From a behavioural perspective not vaccinating the youngsters actually incentivises their parents and grandparents to get their boosters asap which protects the health service. So I believe the English government has delayed deliberately

Thats an interesting point.

Many areas of Germany are now also starting what's called a '2G+' approach in public life/events/workplaces etc, which means you can attend if you are vaccinated or recovered AND have done a test. My teens have been vaccinated since the summer. They had previously had to test 3 times a week for school. They were allowed to stop that due to being vaccinated after the summer holidays, they've been back to compulsory testing for a couple of weeks now.

It's utterly rife in schools and in under-18s generally.

@frumpety

From a behavioural perspective not vaccinating the youngsters actually incentivises their parents and grandparents to get their boosters asap which protects the health service. So I believe the English government has delayed deliberately

Thats an interesting point.

I agree case numbers prompt boosters, probably why we got the storm clouds thing the other day too but the JCVI delayed I really think it was down to that.

I agree re behavioural impact of case numbers though

Because they don't want further deaths unlike Boris who doesn't seem to give a shit

And they aren't "kicking off" they are introducing measures to keep people safer.

It's only things like covid passports etc which most support in these countries.

It's the sensible measures that have prevented the levels that the UK is seeing currently

Thank you @WeDidntMeanToGoToSea
I raised the question on here last night whether we were comparing like with like.
The UK 80% is for over 12s (which is the only people who can be vaccinated) but some countries quote the number as % of their total population.
And you've just indicated that's what Germany are doing

I also wish people would stop repeating the media narrative of the vaccination programme being an ‘unmitigated success story’ to quote a PP. The delivery of the AZ vaccine was. Vaccinating the population wasn’t more of a success story than in any other western country. The UK started a few weeks before most of Europe did, and went at a slightly faster speed during Jan/Feb. By July, the rates were identical. An 8 week delay in vaccinating healthy 30 year olds doesn’t make [insert country of your choice] unsuccessful.

Like the same PP said though, each country has succeeded at something, and been less successful at others.

People seem to forget the disgraceful death rate the UK had prior to the vaccine being introduced. People waiting for months for cancer treatment. The health service being at capacity for months on end. People working in health and care who are utterly exhausted after the worst 2 years of their careers.

I really, really hope the UK’s current strategy pays off. But let’s not call anything a success just yet, when the healthcare system is in shambles and will be, for many many months yet.

In the same way, let’s not call Germany or XYZ’s strategy a success either, when we don’t actually know when these bloody restrictions will lift

Honestly some of the leadership in Europe abysmal. Boris is a shitty prime minister but theirs are in a league of their own! Europe couldn't organise a piss up in a brewery, never mind a vaccination programme.

@Orchid876 I read a sky news comments section on FB. Literally every comment was sheep/jibby jab/fake news/actors/bored of this/poison/scam...
someone told me yesterday that a friend didn't have to isolate with a positive PCR test as they were double vaccinated

I've never been so bemused by people, and people actual brain cells/common sense

Thank you very much @EileenGG. Most of them are where the worst of flooding hit in Eiffel but they are mostly younger so not too worried about them. Elderly Aunt is near Königswinter outside Bonn.

Really want to get over but circumstances just don’t allow it at the moment.

There are a few factors which combine here:

1. We do test more so we pick up asymptomatic people - our rates always look 'worse' than they are in a comparative picture

1. We prioritised vaccinating old people and the vulnerable (which I don't think we fully give ourselves credit for, but has been quite important). As a 40-something it was massively frustrating to have to wait, but clearly the right thing. Same with boosters. I loathe this government but I don't think we have really acknowledged how impressively socialist the vaccination programme has been - society ahead of the individual at almost every stage.

1. We are boosting earlier and following the same, age / vulnerability-led approach

1. We have basically had a strategy for everyone to either get vaccinated, or to get covid, or both before the winter. Once it was obvious the vaccines didn't stop infections, it all became about preventing sever infections. Cases are a bit of a useless measure in this paradigm as a way of understanding the seriousness of the wave, they are most useful in understanding the level of infection / immunity. Basically, a dose of covid operates as a booster. We have a lot of people 'boosted' already relative to lots of other places.

1. Lots of our cases are in kids who aren't properly vaccinated (much to my frustration as it actually makes life much harder even in the UK if you have a 12-15year old). The reality is that, as most of them have had covid by now, their single dose will probably work for them but it doesn't make it any easier if you need to prove covid status :-(

It was a different strategy from almost everywhere else. It might not work (things could get worse); I didn't much like it at the time (if nothing else it is really upsetting and embarrassing to have my family & friends abroad going on and on about how we are all just plague-ridden and careless); it was and is high-risk but it isn't carelessness. It is a calculated risk which may yet pay off.

The Comms around this from the clinicians have been appalling, and the misunderstanding in the media of what is happening (and therefore the lack of analysis of whether the plan is working or not) is utterly depressing.

Governments lead. I didn't vote for this shitshow government, but I do think we need to be able to stand outside party politics on this one and say 'OK, so this was the plan, is it working?' because if it isn't, we will need to do something different but, if it is, we need to learn from that too.

So is there a marked difference in vaccine uptake between former East German states and West Germany? There is more vaccine hesitancy in previous Soviet states? Less trust in government/modern medicine/US vaccines? If that is the case then it is a German specific issue just like we had vaccine uptake issues within BAME communities originally.

Perhaps our 200 p/d deaths with covid are also a reflection of 18 months of other illnesses being untreated. All of those illnesses make the population more vulnerable if they have them, and their deaths will be attributed to covid even (and not saying they are) if asymptomatic. So they’re deaths are a direct result of covid but not because of the co I’d virus itself.

The other point is, nearly two years of restrictions and globally, we still have higher than normal death rates. So many of the global population have had enough. Just because many people have carried on as normal, there are many more who have suffered economically/mentally and physically to a level they can’t cope with any longer. Which is why 200 deaths with covid per day seems acceptable damage.

I’m not saying this is right or wrong or acceptable but as days go by we become more desensitised to covid.