Johnson Press Conference

[Claudethecat]

Is he just trying to nudge up the booster numbers, or is he genuinely concerned?

Turning to Covid, I want to update you on our progress,and, in particular, on these storm clouds that are gathering over the continent

A new wave of Covid has steadily swept through central Europe and is now affecting our nearest neighbours in western Europe.

Our friends on the continent have been forced to respond with various degrees of new restrictions, from full lockdowns, to lockdowns for the unvaccinated, to restrictions on business opening hours and restrictions on social gatherings.

We don’t yet know the extent to which this new wave will wash up on our shores, but history shows we cannot afford to be complacent.

Indeed in recent days cases there have been rising here in the UK, so we must remain vigilant.

Because there is one lesson we can draw from the current situation in Europe.

Those countries with lower vaccination rates have tended to see bigger surges in infection, and in turn been forced to respond with harsher measures.

While those countries with higher vaccination rates have, so far, fared better.

This shows us once again that if we want to control the epidemic here in the UK,and if we want to avoid new restrictions on our daily lives, we must all get vaccinated as soon as we are eligible.

Apologies if this has already been linked:

www.newstatesman.com/comment/2021/11/how-the-uk-sleepwalked-into-another-covid-disaster

Just to balance today's rhetoric that the public dropped the ball and needs to buck up its ideas

If nothing else because they're taking swift action as soon as cases start to rise.

The only meaningful swift action appears to be boosters where UK seems to be doing better than others.

I am afraid no other European country will be able to avoid Delta wave deaths. Our Delta peak (in terms of hospitalisations and deaths) might have already passed. Rest of Europe is simply 2-3 months behind - on both cases and deaths.

@wintertravel1980

If nothing else because they're taking swift action as soon as cases start to rise.

The only meaningful swift action appears to be boosters where UK seems to be doing better than others.

I am afraid no other European country will be able to avoid Delta wave deaths. Our Delta peak (in terms of hospitalisations and deaths) might have already passed. Rest of Europe is simply 2-3 months behind - on both cases and deaths.

Silly foreigners, why is it taking so long for them to get their next wave organised?

Perhaps, because virus is doing virus and - with an increased transmission advantage - is getting harder and harder to control.

Israel was the first country to vaccinate its population and the first one to experience waning immunity. UK followed. Europe had higher protection over summer because their vaccination program was slower and their roll out numbers “peaked in April-May” (vs Feb-March in the UK).

Perhaps, because virus is doing virus

Yeah. Spreading when given the opportunity.

Continental Europe caught up (and some of the countries overtook us) on vaccine rollout. The difference is they took WHO advice on Vaccine Plus. We went for Vaccine Just.

Now immunity is starting to wane in Europe. So they're doing something about it. Israel did the same (took mitigation action, including boosters).

is getting harder and harder to control.

If we do nothing, yes. If we take WHO advice, hopefully not.

Longer term, there's the treatments. The antivirals, the monoclonal antibodies, and anything else that comes along. In time there'll be better availability and prices will come down.

Meantime, boosters will help. If we added in extra mitigations like masks and good ventilation, even better, but boosters really will make a difference.

The difference is they took WHO advice on Vaccine Plus.

Could you please remind me where WHO recommended Vaccine Plus in 2021?

In any case, European countries went for Vaccine Plus when their level of protection from vaccines was at its highest. Some people may think the “Plus” made a difference over summer but others (including me) may doubt it. Arguably, vaccines did all the heavy lifting.

In the UK we had the natural experiment with England going for Vaccine Just and Scotland and Wales going for Vaccine Plus. The results were not that different. The effectiveness of “Plus” does not seem to translate into actual data.

And here is one more consideration - re: differences in outcomes in Europe vs South East Asia:

www.bbc.com/news/health-59165157

University of Oxford scientists have uncovered a gene that doubles the risk of lung failure and death from Covid.

They say around 60% of people from South Asian backgrounds and 15% of people of European ancestry carry the high-risk version of the gene.

They estimate the risky version of the gene is present in about 2% of people from African-Caribbean backgrounds and 1.8% of people of East Asian descent.

This would explain the tragedy in India. This would also explain ongoing struggles in Europe and the US.

So we owe it to the sizeable south Asian community in the UK to take simple and easy mitigation measures.

And 15% of approx 50 million+ Brits with European ancestry is quite a lot of people.

Also the gene might increase the risk but it doesn't mean people without it are not at all at risk.

India has done pretty well actually since it was badly hit earlier in the year. They took mitigation measures.

Could you please remind me where WHO recommended Vaccine Plus in 2021?

It's been repeatedly and widely reported. The link below is from the summer but they haven't changed their stance.

nypost.com/2021/06/28/who-recommends-masks-even-for-vaccinated-people-because-of-delta-variant/

@wintertravel1980

The difference is they took WHO advice on Vaccine Plus.

Could you please remind me where WHO recommended Vaccine Plus in 2021?

In any case, European countries went for Vaccine Plus when their level of protection from vaccines was at its highest. Some people may think the “Plus” made a difference over summer but others (including me) may doubt it. Arguably, vaccines did all the heavy lifting.

In the UK we had the natural experiment with England going for Vaccine Just and Scotland and Wales going for Vaccine Plus. The results were not that different. The effectiveness of “Plus” does not seem to translate into actual data.

Yes the Scotland/Wales comparison always seems to be ignored or disregarded. Scotland and Wales are already doing what seems to be being suggested, so why are their case numbers comparable with England's? Surely they should be significantly lower?

Personally I think the reality is that the "low level" restrictions actually have fairly minimal impact on transmission on their own. The bigger measure do work but have very significant downsides and are unlikely to be sustainable long term.

@answered

Apologies if this has already been linked:

www.newstatesman.com/comment/2021/11/how-the-uk-sleepwalked-into-another-covid-disaster

Just to balance today's rhetoric that the public dropped the ball and needs to buck up its ideas

Good article, thanks.

Scotland. Well I didn't see much social distancing at the COP26. Not that many masks on the large mass gatherings either.

@Tealightsandd

Scotland. Well I didn't see much social distancing at the COP26. Not that many masks on the large mass gatherings either.

So Scotland have the "plus" in place but people just aren't doing it? Is that the argument? If it's not working in Scotland (for whatever reason) why would it work in England?

Re vaccine passports. I don't think Scotland or Wales are doing as much as eg. France or Italy?

Obviously though kudos to Scotland and Wales for trying. I assume some of their effort is hampered by limited powers?

In what way? Limited by England? I'm not aware of any restrictions placed on Scotland and Wales covid measures by England.

Scotland do require covid passports for bars/clubs and indoor events of more than 500.

lauradodsworth.substack.com/p/a-nurses-view

Jeez is that the State of Fear gobbledegook?

@MercyBooth

Seems Tesco didnt pick it up either!!!

I wasn't familiar with Tesco's Xmas advertising - are you supporting vaccine passports here?

@herecomesthsun

Jeez is that the State of Fear gobbledegook?

Yep. Self-styled "slayer of taboos" Dodsworth. Doing far more to do what she says she despises than leaving the pandemic in Boris's hands ever did. Makes you miss her former body of work almost.

[quote MercyBooth]lauradodsworth.substack.com/p/a-nurses-view[/quote]
The nurse who wrote that piece makes a very good point - that many people going to A&E are going with other, serious, problems and being Covid positive is not the main issue. Then after treatment for their serious problem they are allowed home, Covid positive and from there infect their families.

A very sobering account. Just because it's on Laura 'State of Fear' Dodsworth's site doesn't make it an exaggeration or untrue. Seems spot on to me.

I disagree with Boris who seems to be implying that the 'wave' of Covid in Europe may 'wash up on our shores'. How so? All countries in Europe including the UK are now endemic with this virus. We do not have less of it here. Cases appear to rise and fall in waves, the waves aren't in sync between countries, probably because each country is handling their epidemic differently. No matter what any of them do, the waves keep coming - maybe over time their amplitude will decrease and eventually we'll have smaller peaks during winter.

The current vaccines can only do so much. We need other treatments and also genetic susceptibility needs to be researched further so we can pinpoint the people most at risk.

@CrunchyCarrot

No, I do understand that tbf. The problem will be (as ever) people saying "well, my sister's Covid ward has never opened" and "my sister's Covid ward is so full they're stacking the coffins in the carpark"
And because it's Dodsworth, unfortunately it comes already tainted with her own agenda.
It's a shame, because we know the NHS is on its knees. And the govt's handling of Covid has kneecapped the knees it's on.

@herecomesthsun No im against vaccine passports But the Queen song played in the advert intimates that nothing will stop people spending Christmas with their families this year. Dont you listen to the lyrics of songs?

@CrunchyCarrot People seem very reluctant to talk about nosocomial infection for some reason

Here is an article about it
www.hsj.co.uk/patient-safety/covid-infections-caught-in-hospital-rise-by-a-third-in-one-week/7029211.article

dated the day before they "called off" Christmas last year.

You can’t complain about the number of hospital acquired infections after throwing a strop about wearing masks.

If the number of infections are not controlled in the wider community the hospitals become riddled with it.