Johnson Press Conference

[Claudethecat]

Is he just trying to nudge up the booster numbers, or is he genuinely concerned?

Turning to Covid, I want to update you on our progress,and, in particular, on these storm clouds that are gathering over the continent

A new wave of Covid has steadily swept through central Europe and is now affecting our nearest neighbours in western Europe.

Our friends on the continent have been forced to respond with various degrees of new restrictions, from full lockdowns, to lockdowns for the unvaccinated, to restrictions on business opening hours and restrictions on social gatherings.

We don’t yet know the extent to which this new wave will wash up on our shores, but history shows we cannot afford to be complacent.

Indeed in recent days cases there have been rising here in the UK, so we must remain vigilant.

Because there is one lesson we can draw from the current situation in Europe.

Those countries with lower vaccination rates have tended to see bigger surges in infection, and in turn been forced to respond with harsher measures.

While those countries with higher vaccination rates have, so far, fared better.

This shows us once again that if we want to control the epidemic here in the UK,and if we want to avoid new restrictions on our daily lives, we must all get vaccinated as soon as we are eligible.

@MarshaBradyo Freedom Day was a concept beloved of the right wing media that the Government revelled in and did nothing to correct or deny. "Irreversible" steps to freedom anyone?

Re all the "strange you missed that" - I apologise for adopting your own terms of reference there.

The best scientific advice has always been caution around catching and transmitting covid.

Sajid Javid said as much

inews.co.uk/news/politics/if-i-had-not-lifted-lockdown-in-july-we-would-still-be-under-restrictions-now-says-sajid-javid-1232525

"Sajid Javid said that the Conservative Party conference would not have been able to go ahead in person in Manchester this week had he not taken the “decisive” action not to delay the final stage of the lockdown roadmap in July.

He told a fringe event that all the guidance from Government scientists – Sage – had been “indecisive” and that, as a minister, he was “entitled” ignore it."

I think the scientists had rightly urged caution; the Government can of course overrule that; there were arguments for some degree of easing over the summer and so Chris Whitty went for a sensible compromise position.

Hence we lost the legal mandate for many restrictions, while the scientific advice remained to wear masks in crowded places etc.

That would make sense of Javid's comments.

And then there was the bit today where he (Boris) lied about wearing masks wherever the rules said he should.

Hopefully booster jabs, particularly for Astrazeneca people, will help.

(AZ is still good but it's less effective than the mRNA vaccines, and it's efficacy wanes to a lower level).

Is he just trying to nudge up the booster numbers, or is he genuinely concerned?

Honestly. Its both.

We've had a lull in numbers over the last couple of weeks. We are moving from nationwide peaks of cases to more localised waves apparently. This is largely driven by schools - so once it gets into a school you have a local wave before it settles back down again. The suggestion is we will see another uptick in cases in schools this half term (so don't be surprised by a peak just before the Christmas holidays) but its hopefully likely to be smaller than the September / October uptick. I think this is a more negative forecast than the optimism of about a week or so ago but probably more realistic and what I'm expecting to happen.

That in itself could scupper a lot of peoples' Christmas if they get covid right before Christmas. (If you've had covid in the last month or so, you may well now start to breathe a sigh of relief as you are unlikely to get it again before Christmas)

And of course we would expect a lot more intergenerational mixing for Christmas which of course poses a potential worry for January if people haven't taken up their booster offer. I am genuinely worried about Christmas for that reason and will be avoiding vulnerable relatives. Last new year wasn't pretty and we still have a real threat of a repeat albeit not as severe.

The problem is numbers on boosters are below where they would like at this point. Thats not a good thing. Some of it is hestitancy and a sense of lack of urgency but its not the only issue. Another is down to how the booster is being rolled out differently to the first doses. A lot of older people were invited by GPs for their 1st and 2nd jab but this time around the onus is on people to book in themselves rather than wait for the call. I do think there are many expecting to be contacted this time round like last and they won't be. Plus closures of vaccination centres is proving an issue too - a lot of people with mobility issues who were able to get clinics last time can't get to the clinic locations available this time. There is a lot less assistance available on this for booster jabs. So I would say this speech was probably less of a hint about a change of tone on another Christmas lockdown (at this stage) and more about preparing blame shift if numbers start to climb more steeply. Its puts it back on individuals to pull their finger out and get vaccinated rather than addressing the communication problem and logistics over accessing vaccine centres.

I certainly am not seeing a Christmas Lockdown as a likely possibility. Yet. We aren't in that league for now, but there is a risk we could get there in the next few weeks.

The news about boosters for over 40s could be a combination of low uptake in older groups too, plus concerns over both travel eligibility and health concerns.

I know that at least one European country only considers you fully vaccinated for the 365 days after your 2nd dose. This works slightly better for those countries like the UK which had delayed second jabs - but it does mean that many people are going to start falling foul of this because the fine print isnt well known. I will 'run out' before next Summer so the news I will be eligible for a booster does make me slightly relieved because I won't get caught out in mismatching international beaucracy but DH who is too young still has to wonder if he will end up in limbo. Todays news does suggest that it will roll out to other age groups in due course though and be more aligned with what the policy is likely to be going forward.

This also has implications for doing business not just your holiday. The government won't fancy a lot of people getting to their destination and suddenly getting caught out as it will cause a headache for the Foreign Office and Government popularity.

That said, the vast majority of over 40s still won't be eligible for a booster this side of Christmas anyway so thats not going to change what happens then.

We do, however, need a big push to get eligible over 50s booked in ahead of Christmas in the next fortnight or so - after that point we are much more 'locked in' in terms of how many boosters will be done in time. There really isn't much of a window to do this.

I think by the end of the month we will have a good projection on boosters and how thats going to affect Christmas. I think the numbers the first week in December are going to be the ones to seriously look at in terms of how things are going to go.

At the moment I'm fairly relaxed about our numbers compared to whats happening in the EU, but I suspect I will get more nervous as we head into December. Our decision to delay second jabs definitely is paying off, and our decision to 'run hotter' and open earlier isn't looking as bad as many suggested.

Its a little bit of a 'hold your breathe' moment once again, but not as bad as we've previously had.

[quote herecomesthsun]**@MarshaBradyo* Freedom Day was a concept beloved of the right wing media that the Government revelled in and did nothing* to correct or deny. "Irreversible" steps to freedom anyone?

Re all the "strange you missed that" - I apologise for adopting your own terms of reference there.

The best scientific advice has always been caution around catching and transmitting covid.

Sajid Javid said as much

inews.co.uk/news/politics/if-i-had-not-lifted-lockdown-in-july-we-would-still-be-under-restrictions-now-says-sajid-javid-1232525

"Sajid Javid said that the Conservative Party conference would not have been able to go ahead in person in Manchester this week had he not taken the “decisive” action not to delay the final stage of the lockdown roadmap in July.

He told a fringe event that all the guidance from Government scientists – Sage – had been “indecisive” and that, as a minister, he was “entitled” ignore it."

I think the scientists had rightly urged caution; the Government can of course overrule that; there were arguments for some degree of easing over the summer and so Chris Whitty went for a sensible compromise position.

Hence we lost the legal mandate for many restrictions, while the scientific advice remained to wear masks in crowded places etc.

That would make sense of Javid's comments.[/quote]
I wasn’t being sarky though

That press conference we had on July 19 did advise caution

It was said many times but by then the media had run away with the idea as it was a good tale

I have no issue with the caution part, that Whitty repeated it even, behaviourally it was better if it wasn’t all at once and we did do this so he got that right

The part I found interesting was that Whitty new that flu season would be high and higher cases in summer was an alternative approach to other countries

The way I saw it was a steady flattish approach which that graph below shows we’ve had

…Knew

This will eventually be just another flu. Winter will bring rises and the weak will die. Hospitals will continue to have that seasonal rush & Vaccinations will be available annually for those that are vulnerable. those that choose not to have one take their chances.

I’m now of an age where I have started being targeted for the flu vaccine, haven’t previously, and despite once having flu and once having covid, the flu was 1000 times worse.

I’ll take my annual flu and Covid vaccine if that’s what it takes to be free.

It was said at the start of Covid that like most pandemics it will eventually burn itself out, I believe it will, but I think five years start to acceptance is a likely timeframe, with it never actually disappearing.

I don’t intend to be a statistic.

Worth bearing in mind that the government generally use the DT or The Times to ‘leak’ information, I suspect this report is true.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/11/14/covid-self-isolation-rules-end-march-operation-rampdown/

Genuinely concerned? Boris?

The only thing that tosser is genuinely concerned about is shirking responsibility and enriching his billionaire chums so he can sponge favours off them.

He's shown fuck all concern for the welfare of most citizens of this country so far, particularly those who most need it.

The DT article may be behind a paywall:

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/operation-rampdown-plan-get-rid-25454045

I don’t accept that it’s bullshit. They said several times that the point of opening earlier in the U.K. was to try and stop the winter peak being so terrible. I vividly remember that.

Clearly Johnson didn't get the memo from the WHO saying that countries with lowest AND the highest vaccination rates have got high levels of infection. See video here www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10198985/Operation-Rampdown-Codename-revealed-Government-papers-dismantle-key-Covid-measures-year.html (you have to scroll down a lot).

@MarshaBradyo

Fair enough.

Does anyone remember that press conference in Scotland? It was the Tuesday after Transmit, I'm sure so literally 24 hrs later. They were like "there's no extra cases- nothing to see here - case closed"

*sorry I suppose I should say England opening up early

@Itsnotallaboutyoubaby

I don’t accept that it’s bullshit. They said several times that the point of opening earlier in the U.K. was to try and stop the winter peak being so terrible. I vividly remember that.

Good! So few people seem to have registered it

If he doesn't seem concerned, perhaps it's because it's likely that MPs particularly senior ones will have access to monoclonal antibody treatment - including, if need be, prophylactically.

The UK has only a limited supply due to worldwide demand (I believe the USA has more than anywhere else) but I'm sure those considered most important will have access.

www.fda.gov/drugs/drug-safety-and-availability/fda-authorizes-regen-cov-monoclonal-antibody-therapy-post-exposure-prophylaxis-prevention-covid-19

[quote 2389Champ]The DT article may be behind a paywall:

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/operation-rampdown-plan-get-rid-25454045[/quote]
Imagine come the spring when your office colleague whose desk is next to yours casually comes in to work coughing sneezing everywhere without a mask on and they say ‘oh I’ve got the Covid’ and you have to work with them in that office all day and you’ve got asthma or you’re in your 60s and your fourth booster isn’t for another two weeks 😳 and there’s nothing you can do.

Wtf it’ll be like the twilight zone.

@nordica

It's hard to take the PM seriously after those photos of him sitting next to David Attenborough at COP26, surrounded by people in masks but not wearing one himself.

Hospitals and the ambulance service are already massively struggling though with non-covid work so who knows what will happen.

Exactly. He's a terrible role model and a massive idiot. 🙄

@Itsnotallaboutyoubaby

Is it actually that bad in Europe? I haven’t kept up but I was under the impression we had higher numbers?

Yup, but that's the tactic , blame foreigners someone else, and why do you think he tried the Churchillian cliché "Storm Clouds blah blah.." the other day? It's so convenient to have a ready-made enemy / scapegoat nearby.

I don’t accept that it’s bullshit. They said several times that the point of opening earlier in the U.K. was to try and stop the winter peak being so terrible. I vividly remember that.

Good! So few people seem to have registered it

Quite a few of is were on here pointing out the problems with that narrative.

Still, hopefully things might start to improve once people have been boostered, particularly the vulnerable (including the 40-49s).

I think it will definitely be helpful to get Astrazeneca people boosted with an mRNA vaccine.

uk.news.yahoo.com/covid-vaccines-wear-off-why-140948961.html

The Pfizer and Moderna jabs, both of which are mRNA vaccines, declined only slightly in the first 10 weeks after the second dose and levelled out at about 90 per cent efficacy against severe disease after 20 weeks.

However, a yet-to-be-peer-reviewed study found that the AstraZeneca vaccine kept falling in efficacy, with protection against severe disease dipping to 60 per cent by 20 weeks.

There's a difference between high levels of infection, and high levels of hospitalisation and death.

Oh a few people have said on here that our rates over the summer were part of a cunning plan.

However, many people, having hearing the "cunning plan" idea, think that Chris Whitty's other advice, around the importance of caution, was in fact what we would do best to heed.

As people who get infected with covid do die and that, unlike Boris's steps to freedom, really is irreversible; the fewer unnecessary deaths from covid the better, really.

@herecomesthsun

Oh a few people have said on here that our rates over the summer were part of a cunning plan.

However, many people, having hearing the "cunning plan" idea, think that Chris Whitty's other advice, around the importance of caution, was in fact what we would do best to heed.

As people who get infected with covid do die and that, unlike Boris's steps to freedom, really is irreversible; the fewer unnecessary deaths from covid the better, really.

If you only hear or believe half of his advice

Why?

@nordica

It's hard to take the PM seriously after those photos of him sitting next to David Attenborough at COP26, surrounded by people in masks but not wearing one himself.

Hospitals and the ambulance service are already massively struggling though with non-covid work so who knows what will happen.

Ah you see, you are misunderstanding. Boris has been paying close attention to the climate science for many years. As far back as 2007 he was writing about the problems of the size of the world's population. His not wearing a mask at a climate conference is a statement that it is important that we all do our bit to try and reduce the world's population by spreading a deadly disease.

Well, we have higher vaccine uptake than a lot of Europe already AND, if you look at the data, it looks like the wave hit us before it hit Europe.