Has everyone just accepted that it’s not an “if” but a “when”?

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Just that really. Me and DH are still trying to be relatively careful, we do meet up with people and do things but we are avoiding certain things eg not going to soft play with DDs this week as it would have been full of school kids. Our eldest goes to a childminder who has school age kids so she could very well catch it that way (or from the supermarket etc) but we need childcare to work. So basically we are not completely “hiding away” but we are thinking carefully and not taking risks when there’s no huge benefit.

Are we alone in this approach now? And is there any point? Part of me thinks we aren’t going to be able to avoid it forever so we may as well just get it and then we could get on with our lives. People I know who’ve had it are now just doing whatever they want (although I know you can get it twice) which sounds quite appealing.

For anyone interested, my reasons for still trying to avoid it despite being double jabbed are 1. I have a rare blood clotting condition so although I’m not CEV I am classed as being higher risk than average joe and 2. DD2 is only 6 months, she is EBF and hasn’t taken well to solids yet and has some allergies. I’m worried that if I get it now and feel totally wiped out that my supply will suffer and I’d be exhausted trying to breastfeed her while feeling really poorly etc.

“ And many people fall foul of the "MENTALLY UNWELL!" type accusations because they make different decisions to others...”

Yes indeed, it’s rather shit all round, isn’t it?

@PrincessNutNuts

Only two or three years of this to go then if that is correct. *@Warhertisuff*? Longer if more people are still susceptible.

Assuming we can't catch it again.

Which some of us already have.

And assuming that a vaccine resistant variant doesn't pop up.

Perhaps the poor sods who have been on NHS waiting lists for two or three years already won't mind a few more years of suffering while the NHS is kept busy with covid until 2025?

The ONS estimated that 1 in 50 people had Covid last week. As R>1 then on average those people will have passed it to a further 1 in 50 people this week. Given previous infections, it won't that long at that rate for the vast majority to become infected.... at least, the vast majority of people who aren't remaining very cautious and hiding away.

Of course, if you are able to avoid risky situations and take precautions even when encountering low risk situations (eg mask and distance in a shop) then you're likely to be able to avoid Covid for a long time yet.

You seem to be simultaneously saying that Covid is so slow at spreading that it will take years to creep around the country at a snails pace, whilst also saying it's so pervasive and infectious that we need to take all manner of precautions to avoid catching it!

Also, your logic is one of effectively permanent restrictions to stop infection. There's no way out in your world.

Notwithstanding the potential for re-infection (which only occur after exposure after c. 9-18 months), at current rates it seems that this current wave must burn itself out in a few weeks, and fall to lower levels.

*The ONS estimated that 1 in 50 people had Covid last week. As R>1 then on average those people will have passed it to a further 1 in 50 people this week. Given previous infections, it won't that long at that rate for the vast majority to become infected.... at least, the vast majority of people who aren't remaining very cautious and hiding away.

Of course, if you are able to avoid risky situations and take precautions even when encountering low risk situations (eg mask and distance in a shop) then you're likely to be able to avoid Covid for a long time yet.

You seem to be simultaneously saying that Covid is so slow at spreading that it will take years to creep around the country at a snails pace, whilst also saying it's so pervasive and infectious that we need to take all manner of precautions to avoid catching it!

Also, your logic is one of effectively permanent restrictions to stop infection. There's no way out in your world.

Notwithstanding the potential for re-infection (which only occur after exposure after c. 9-18 months), at current rates it seems that this current wave must burn itself out in a few weeks, and fall to lower levels.*

So how much longer do you think this is going to go on for @Warhertisuff?

How long to infect the other half of the country?

And how many of us will this hospitalise and kill?

(Directly, from covid, and indirectly by keeping the health service too busy with covid to do it's usual work.)

(And I don't know where you got all that about "my" viewpoint. I haven't said any of those things. )

@Warhertisuff Well, covid has been circulating for 18 months now, and hasn't "burnt itself out" yet has it?

The predictions have been for a very difficult winter.

So the sensible thing is to listen to the CMO and scientific experts and be careful for the next few months.

Especially as the precautions which help people avoid covid also helo people avoid RSV and flu (masking, social distancing etc)

Are people tired of this? A bit but lots of people are ok with looking after themselves and others just a bit longer.

How long for? next few months in the first off, to get us through the winter.

It's not that hard really

How long for? next few months in the first off, to get us through the winter.

And after winter, will covid and flu and RSV have all gone away?

I am also concerned with the current pressure on hospitals, but “just a bit longer” is not a very convincing rallying cry after 18 months of people feeling (with some justification) like the goalpost is getting constantly moved.

I don’t blame people if they feel higher risk and they want to be careful. That’s up to them if so.

We don’t have the need here, for the next few months as we’ve recently had it - adding to immunity levels

@GoldenOmber

How long for? next few months in the first off, to get us through the winter.

And after winter, will covid and flu and RSV have all gone away?

I am also concerned with the current pressure on hospitals, but “just a bit longer” is not a very convincing rallying cry after 18 months of people feeling (with some justification) like the goalpost is getting constantly moved.

No but the difficult winter will have gone away. Tis common sense, not really a rallying cry.

I’m still being cautious, in that I’m wearing a mask and we isolate and test with symptoms etc, but other than that we’re carrying on as normal. Unless there’s a change of tack from the government and they bring in measures like compulsory mask wearing and vaccine passports (as other countries have done), I think this is just how like in the UK is going to be from now on. I can’t see how our level of immunity is going to increase much, most people who will be vaccinated are. I guess immunity in children could increase a bit with infection and vaccination, but it can still spread so the government have decided that quite a high prevalence is acceptable. I don’t think I agree with that, I think we could do things (such as in most of Europe) to allow us to get on with our lives with a lower level of transmission in the population, but that’s not the stance our government has taken, so I’m not going to hide myself away or restrict the activities I take in anymore.

I have no problem with people wanting to take whatever precautions they prefer, within sensible limits.

But asking other people to take the precautions they personally prefer, and only the ones they personally prefer (don’t see many calls for eg insisting people exercise regularly to reduce NHS impact of sedentary lifestyles, or not driving to avoid health impact of air pollution), is not something I’d be happy to do myself. I do think people should drive less and exercise more but I’m not going to tut at them for being uncaring to others if they don’t.

such as in most of Europe

Germany is interesting atm, seeing a fast increase, with more measures.

Not sure if other countries will do the same but the picture in Europe is changing.

No but the difficult winter will have gone away. Tis common sense, not really a rallying cry.

Right, so if I check back with you on March 21st, you’ll be saying “spring now! No need for any of these precautions any more?”

Because people have been told it’s ‘just common sense’ to wait until we’re through the first wave, then wait until there’s a vaccine, then wait until the most vulnerable have had the vaccine, then wait until everyone’s had the vaccine, now wait until more people have had boosters. You might personally be drawing the line after this winter, but people heading “just a little bit longer! just a little bit, be patient just a little bit more!” are reasonably a bit by now.

Reflecting on this... I think those who are living a pre-2020 life, or close to it, will almost inevitably get Covid if they haven't had it already before the winter is out. Those who continue to hide away stand a good chance of avoiding it, but they will have to do that forever if they want to eliminate their risk.

I think the best chance those who are CEV (who are understandably continuing to be very cautious) have of having as normal a life as possible is for this current wave to be allowed to burn itself naturally without the strong restrictions which artificially halted the first two waves, and for case rates to fall dramatically as has been the case in Florida and Brazil over the past month or so.

I'm not arguing for a complete free-for-all (ie no testing. no isolation for symptoms etc) as that could lead to an unmanageable peak, but accept the current state of affairs that is allowing Covid to spread moderately fast.

Yes, Covid won't disappear, but we'll have reached an endemic equilibrium that could only be suppressed further by permanent, never-ending restrictions.

@GoldenOmber

I have no problem with people wanting to take whatever precautions they prefer, within sensible limits.

But asking other people to take the precautions they personally prefer, and only the ones they personally prefer (don’t see many calls for eg insisting people exercise regularly to reduce NHS impact of sedentary lifestyles, or not driving to avoid health impact of air pollution), is not something I’d be happy to do myself. I do think people should drive less and exercise more but I’m not going to tut at them for being uncaring to others if they don’t.

Well, I don't "tut at" people for not wearing a mask etc. either.

However, someone who is unfit is not going to physically infect you with their unfitness, are they? So it is a bit different.

However, someone who is unfit is not going to physically infect you with their unfitness, are they? So it is a bit different.

Ah, so it’s not about reducing the impact on hospitals and caring about people in general, then? It’s about the risk people pose to you personally?

@GoldenOmber

No but the difficult winter will have gone away. Tis common sense, not really a rallying cry.

Right, so if I check back with you on March 21st, you’ll be saying “spring now! No need for any of these precautions any more?”

Because people have been told it’s ‘just common sense’ to wait until we’re through the first wave, then wait until there’s a vaccine, then wait until the most vulnerable have had the vaccine, then wait until everyone’s had the vaccine, now wait until more people have had boosters. You might personally be drawing the line after this winter, but people heading “just a little bit longer! just a little bit, be patient just a little bit more!” are reasonably a bit by now.

We know this is likely to be a difficult winter. The less illness, death and pressure on services, the better.

Come spring and summer, easing will almost certainly make sense,

As we are actually adults, this would be a good time to review the plan again.

@GoldenOmber

However, someone who is unfit is not going to physically infect you with their unfitness, are they? So it is a bit different.

Ah, so it’s not about reducing the impact on hospitals and caring about people in general, then? It’s about the risk people pose to you personally?

Just pointing out the problem with your analogy with fitness there.

@Warhertisuff

Reflecting on this... I think those who are living a pre-2020 life, or close to it, will almost inevitably get Covid if they haven't had it already before the winter is out. Those who continue to hide away stand a good chance of avoiding it, but they will have to do that forever if they want to eliminate their risk.

I think the best chance those who are CEV (who are understandably continuing to be very cautious) have of having as normal a life as possible is for this current wave to be allowed to burn itself naturally without the strong restrictions which artificially halted the first two waves, and for case rates to fall dramatically as has been the case in Florida and Brazil over the past month or so.

I'm not arguing for a complete free-for-all (ie no testing. no isolation for symptoms etc) as that could lead to an unmanageable peak, but accept the current state of affairs that is allowing Covid to spread moderately fast.

Yes, Covid won't disappear, but we'll have reached an endemic equilibrium that could only be suppressed further by permanent, never-ending restrictions.

I agree with this

Higher immunity will interrupt transmission better than the measures most mention - if you look at Germany which has been held up as an example.

This tranche of high infection will help over winter. If people want to avoid that right now it makes sense on a personal level.

Im in when not if land.

And by the same token, knowing that immunity wanes, i cant help feel that it might be better for many to get now rather than in a few months, especially if they aren't eligible for booster or are at the back of the queue for boosters. Getting its sooner rather than later when immunity is higher, may also mean there's less chance of spreading it too (as counterintuitive as that sounds) because people around you have greater immunity.

Also on a personal level, I'd rather have now, rather than have all the stress of worrying about it coming into Christmas.

That said, we are still being more cautious than most - realistically the most chance we have of getting it is through school which is something we can't prevent. DS's school was in the midst of a sizeable outbreak before half term so it could be interesting when he returns next week.

I feel like I'm caught between definitely not wanting to get it, but also feel like if im going to get it there are times when it would definitely work out better, both for my health and my sanity.

It’s great to read everyone’s views and I’m genuinely interested in the different viewpoints on this. But can people PLEASE stop using the phrase “hiding away” to describe people who are still being slightly cautious? In reality most people who are still taking some precautions are really not “hiding”. They still go out and do things and have a life. They just maybe think carefully about what they do or do not want to participate in, maybe avoid certain types of events or places, or consider who they might be seeing afterwards and the risk that might pose to others. The phrase “hiding away” comes with an implicit mocking attached that feels disrespectful. The government’s line has been “its up to each individual to decide what level of risk they are willing to take” so please let people do that without being accused of hiding away from life.

@herecomesthsun

• @Warhertisuff Well, covid has been circulating for 18 months now, and hasn't "burnt itself out" yet has it?*

It's not burnt itself out as we've been suppressing it's spread over the past 18 months, either severely through lockdowns, or more mildly through the testing and isolation we currently retain.

Had we not changed our behaviour at all last March (and I'm not saying that would have been a good idea), we'd have had a population with very strong immunity by late spring (albeit with 500,000 dead and the health service in ruins).

Infectious diseases, if allowed to spread, do burn themselves out. Look at the Spanish flu peaks (at time when society wasn't equipped to hide away and work from home or get Ocado deliveries)... a series of a few rapid rises and equally rapid falls over the space of a couple of years.

Current rates of infection are unsustainable - we're not going to have 1 million people with Covid now forever (unless perhaps we suppress things at a sweet spot artificially to achieve this).

Just pointing out the problem with your analogy with fitness there.

How? Hospitals are, as you’ve pointed out, under a lot of pressure this winter. If people were fitter, there would be fewer people needing NHS resources for diseases related to that, so that would help.

Or we could all agree to give up drinking until spring? Alcohol use causes a lot of NHS pressure.

Or everyone who drives could stick religiously to the speed limit from now on, and reduce the chances of accidents, which put pressure on the NHS? Doesn’t cause that much inconvenience?

The NHS isn’t only under pressure from things you could catch yourself.

@GoldenOmber

Just pointing out the problem with your analogy with fitness there.

How? Hospitals are, as you’ve pointed out, under a lot of pressure this winter. If people were fitter, there would be fewer people needing NHS resources for diseases related to that, so that would help.

Or we could all agree to give up drinking until spring? Alcohol use causes a lot of NHS pressure.

Or everyone who drives could stick religiously to the speed limit from now on, and reduce the chances of accidents, which put pressure on the NHS? Doesn’t cause that much inconvenience?

The NHS isn’t only under pressure from things you could catch yourself.

how? lack of fitness isn't contagious, so it doesn't impact on the general community around you in the same way. Simple.

[quote Warhertisuff]@herecomesthsun

• *@Warhertisuff Well, covid has been circulating for 18 months now, and hasn't "burnt itself out" yet has it?

It's not burnt itself out as we've been suppressing it's spread over the past 18 months, either severely through lockdowns, or more mildly through the testing and isolation we currently retain.

Had we not changed our behaviour at all last March (and I'm not saying that would have been a good idea), we'd have had a population with very strong immunity by late spring (albeit with 500,000 dead and the health service in ruins).

Infectious diseases, if allowed to spread, do burn themselves out. Look at the Spanish flu peaks (at time when society wasn't equipped to hide away and work from home or get Ocado deliveries)... a series of a few rapid rises and equally rapid falls over the space of a couple of years.

Current rates of infection are unsustainable - we're not going to have 1 million people with Covid now forever (unless perhaps we suppress things at a sweet spot artificially to achieve this).
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We cannot however line people up in a row and give them all covid, nor would we want to. So covid + RSV + flu is likely to peter on over Dec/Jan/Feb, whether or not we are at the absolute max peak, with a lot of morbidity and mortality in its wake.

Really, I would trust Whitty and JVT on this.

lack of fitness isn't contagious, so it doesn't impact on the general community around you in the same way.

Pressure on the NHS impacts everyone. If there aren’t enough surgery beds for us all because lots of people need surgery for non-contagious things, waiting lists get longer. If A&E is bursting at the seams, then that affects me too if I need it. If all the ICU beds are full and I need one, then it’s not much consolation to me if many of them are full with people with non-contagious conditions - there still wouldn’t be a bed free for me.

So if you are concerned about the pressures facing the NHS this winter, then that goes beyond covid. There are lots of things we could all do to help reduce pressure on the NHS and so care for us all.

If you’re only concerned about contagious things, it sounds like your issue is less “reducing NHS pressures over this difficult winter” and more “not getting covid myself.”

Really, I would trust Whitty and JVT on this.

Chris Whitty talked about having the peak now so to not combine with flu