What's the end game?

[UndertonesOfCake]

Lockdowns were always said to be a thing "until we have a vaccine"

Except now we have a vaccine, and most eligible people are double jabbed.

... and now there's talk of reintroducing restrictions - plan B, plan C... full lockdown again?

I'm not prepared to live in a state of perpetual restrictions - I'll take the (relatively small) risk of dying.

I don't understand how they think this is all going to end, if vaccines have been insufficient? What else are we waiting for?

We won’t have another lockdown, that’s pretty obvious by now.
The endgame is to get through winter with a manageable number of deaths and hospital admissions that don’t overwhelm the NHS.
Spring will be better and next winter

And I agree the endgame is either everyone vaccinated or everyone having had it. Paul Hunter and other scientists say that’s how it will become a mild virus

I think at the moment they are just seeing what a winter looks like with Covid and vaccinations.

I think how this winter plays out will greatly influence how next year looks.

Assuming a worse variant doesn’t come out and surprise us!

Following. From the news today Boris really doesn't want to send workers back home - Pret are up in arms and campaigning for this not to be an option!

@SeasonalNamechange

It feels there's little point continuing to try and fight this

It's a pandemic.... sick/elderly/weak are meant to be killed off leaving the 'fittest'

We are killing our planet anyway, too many of us using too many resources.

Every time we find a new way to survive...isolating,vaccines,lockdowns...new variants emerge and vaccine resistance occurs.

Feels very much like a losing battle because the sick/elderly/weak are surviving and the 'fittest' are killing themselves in despair of living normally again!

Mother Nature is having non of it!

We'll just take them out with a firing squad, shall we? What do you reckon - anyone over 65 or with any of the co-morbidities for Covid, up against the wall? How dare they want to live. I mean, my 37 year old diabetic friend with a 1 year old baby might like to see her daughter grow up and maybe have another child, but clearly she's being selfish because you've had enough.

i think we've all had enough!! but thats what pandemics do....kill off the weak

we are fighting against it, or trying to

I’ve said this before but our only way to absolute freedom is a cure and total eradication of the virus, until this happens we must accept restrictions as part of managing the evolution of Covid

Well they didn't manage zero covid in New Zealand despite everything so I presume that'll mean restrictions permanently. That of course needs people to comply and I really don't think half as many will follow restrictions as in the past.

@HesterShaw1

Have people not noticed the number of cases starting to nosedive?

Yep and if plan b wasn’t introduced when higher it won’t be now.

Let alone harsher restrictions

@Thewiseoneincognito

First of all it’s not a game and it doesn’t end.

The vaccine uptake was encouraged by the belief that restrictions would no longer be needed once enough people had been vaccinated. Whilst we see some success from vaccination, I have a feeling this winter it will become clear we can not rely on vaccines alone to avert restrictions of some kind.

I’ve said this before but our only way to absolute freedom is a cure and total eradication of the virus, until this happens we must accept restrictions as part of managing the evolution of Covid.

The governments around the world and the WHO know all too well that we are in predicament unlike ever before, long term management of cases and spread is likely the strategy we will ultimately have to adopt if we are to avoid lockdowns.

Investment into health services that can cope with ongoing seasonal swells of cases is crucial along with the acceptance some industries and activities may not be feasible during a waves growth stage.

Zero covid was never realistic in the U.K. and certainly isn't now. If NZ couldn't do it then nowhere can.

Long term restrictions won't be accepted by the vast majority. The reality is that people are willing to accept reasonably high levels of death in order to live life free from restrictions. That might not be a hugely palatable truth for some but it is a truth none the less (in my view).

This winter will be bumpy I suspect but we'll keep vaccinating, improving treatments, gaining immunity from exposure etc and i'm hopeful that from spring 2022 onwards covid will fade into the background and not be something most people worry about very much of the time.

@HesterShaw1

Have people not noticed the number of cases starting to nosedive?

You mean now schools are on holiday and there are no longer millions of kids mixing or testing?

@roses2, those kids are all out together in museums/cafes/public transport etc, so no not everything has to do with schools

@Oldgoat2021 when posters, such as you, post statements that sound unequivocal, it would be helpful to back them up with some science, referring to your ‘this is the final variant’ line. Can you tell me where you got this information from?

@roses2, @HesterShaw1, @NearlyAlwaysInsane It's likely that cases will drop because a very high percentage of the adult population have antibodies from vaccination or infection >90% and the number of under 18s with antibodies has been rapidly increasing now that some teenagers have been vaccinated and a high number of children have had COVID.

I think Oldgoat2021 may have misunderstood, @Hopeisallineed. The Delta variant is the most transmissible variant so it will likely become the dominant variant globally. That doesn't mean that it is the final strain, another variant that can outcompete it may come along.

I'm not sure that she really understands the meaning of endemic either. It just means that there is an equilibrium so case numbers remain stable, either the same all the time or in a regular cycle that is similar every year with seasonal peaks. It doesn't necessarily mean low case numbers nor that it will suddenly be milder with a lower fatality rate, just that there won't be huge waves. As I said in a previous post, I think some people assume endemic means COVID becomes like a cold for everyone.

Oldgoat2021

“The booster doubles effectiveness compared to two doses (95% more protection).”

What does this even mean?! The original 95% effectiveness claim was based on relative rather absolute risk reduction.

Dominant is definitely not the same as final. I think posters need to be careful what they post without some research behind it to back it up ( a link to the website).

Doesn’t endemic just mean that it’s here to stay?

It's a bit more specific than that, endemic means that a disease is consistently present, @Hopeisallineed either at a constant level or a repetitive pattern eg seasonal. You can also have diseases that are "here to stay" that are sporadic rather than endemic, diseases that occur irregularly eg tetanus or rabies. Diseases can also be endemic in one location but not another eg malaria is endemic in Africa but not in Europe. An epidemic is when you have an increase in the number of cases above what would normally be expected in a location.

@Sunshinegirl82 I’m not suggesting zero Covid, I know that’s an impossibility. My point was unless it’s a total cure where we can eradicate it completely with a single pill or needle we are forever stuck in this never ending cycle of booster jabs, restrictions and social distancing.

Covid will continue mutating, how that looks after another year or two is anyone’s guess. I’m just waiting for the news that it’s adapted to reinfect those who have already had it with a greater severity than the first time or something to that effect because it seems to throw a curveball when we least expect it.

DH has been saying for ages he thinks the government are ploughing ahead with the present course of action so we achieve herd immunity. Ideally everyone would be vaccinated to reduce the chance of being seriously ill, but if not everyone else has to take their chances and hope it's not too bad for them. If (somehow) the NHS can get through the winter/spring and cope with increased covid cases alongside other winter ailments, operations, injuries and illnesses - great - but I'm not sure they can.

So we either achieve herd immunity, or we'll have to find a way to deal with it, ie whoever feels they are able have a booster when needed has it and a few permanent restrictions we'll have to live with and encouraging people to meet up safely where possible.

The pandemic won't be over till the media decides it is.
As far as I'm concerned we've chucked our best shot at it at the moment and we need to crack on.

I think I read that partial herd immunity was thought to be happening in some parts of London. I’ll try and find the link…

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/inews.co.uk/news/politics/partial-herd-immunity-in-london-is-keeping-case-rates-below-rest-of-uk-1262600/amp

To the poster who said half term is responsible for the current drop in daily infections, surely this can't be the whole picture? Those who are testing positive NOW will have been infected c.7 days ago, when children were in school. A drop due to no mixing in schools would take 7-10 days to filter through.

@UndertonesOfCake

Lockdowns were always said to be a thing "until we have a vaccine"

Except now we have a vaccine, and most eligible people are double jabbed.

... and now there's talk of reintroducing restrictions - plan B, plan C... full lockdown again?

I'm not prepared to live in a state of perpetual restrictions - I'll take the (relatively small) risk of dying.

I don't understand how they think this is all going to end, if vaccines have been insufficient? What else are we waiting for?

The goalposts have been moved every single time we have made progress. They will keep this up as long as they are allowed to get away with it. They don't want to deal with the terrible consequences of their lockdown strategy so they will string it out for as long as possible, milk their mp and ministerial salaries and then get voted out and leave some other poor fools to pick up the pieces which by the way you and I and our children will be paying for for many decades to come.