Excess deaths are really high right now. Are these Covid deaths or something else?

[WhenSheWasBad]

I keep looking at the death rate. For a few months now there have been excess deaths on top of Covid deaths.

Anyone have any idea what is driving these excess deaths?
Are they actually Covid deaths that haven’t been registered as Covid deaths? Or other causes due to difficulties receiving NHS treatment over the past 18 months? Maybe both?

At first I was thinking it was a bit of an anomaly. But those excess deaths have been with us for a while now.

Forgot the graphs

Winter flu type viruses?

Cancer etc that wasn't caught early on during lockdown?

Were you concerned about excess deaths at all in the years before covid?

Were you concerned about excess deaths at all in the years before covid

In which years were there excess deaths?We’ve always had bad years for flu. In which case it’s been obvious what the cause was.

I'm just wondering if you've always been so interested or is it purely because of covid?

I'm just wondering if you've always been so interested or is it purely because of covid

The data is much easier to look at because of Covid. Do I really need to show you evidence that I’ve pondered the death rates in the U.K. for the past 15 years before I can ask a simple question?

Fyi "Total excess deaths as a percentage of the population size for the last 10 years:
In order to provide total excess deaths as a percentage of the population for the last 10 years including 2020, would need to create bespoke analysis. Under the Freedom of Information Act 2000, Public Authorities are not obligated to create information in order to respond to requests. We therefore consider this to be information not held." From
www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/totalandexcessdeathsasapercentageofthepopulation2010to2020

So that doesn't means there's never excess deaths we just don't know the info 🤷

Is it partly because of the 28 day counting system for covid deaths? They don't count as covid deaths if death occurs more than 28 days after testing positive.

I wonder how accurate the Covid tests we're using are at detecting current strains.

It's also worth remembering the research done a while back - about a significant proportion of apparently recovered Covid patients dying 3-6 months later. I expect, with the person no longer testing positive, many of those deaths will be recorded as heart attacks, strokes, etc.

@mrshoho

Is it partly because of the 28 day counting system for covid deaths? They don't count as covid deaths if death occurs more than 28 days after testing positive.

Definitely one reason.

Lots of undiagnosed illnesses and late diagnoses hanging over from the last 18 months would be my guess. Plus lots of people, elderly especially, are deconditioned from lack of activity and so respond less well when they get ill or are hospitalised.

Jason I’ve asked about this year. Not excess deaths from the years 2010 to 2020.

Because of Covid the excess death figures are available this year. So I’ve looked at them.
I am permitted to start a conversation about this years excess deaths, without instigating a bespoke analysis into the the excess deaths in 2010 to 2020.

Is it partly because of the 28 day counting system for covid deaths? They don't count as covid deaths if death occurs more than 28 days after testing positive

I’ll bet that’s part of it.

Yes but surely it's only relevant if you can compare to other years 🤔

But that's exactly what we are doing surely? The excess death figure compares to the average death numbers from the last five years so we can see how many extra deaths there have been over and above this average.

Yes but surely it's only relevant if you can compare to other years

Excess deaths are calculated based on the expected number of deaths minus the actual deaths.

The expected death rate will be calculated based on past deaths and will obviously factor in migration.

This isn’t really a thread about how the excess death rate is calculated. It’s about what is causing it.

There's a breakdown of causes etc here: app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYmUwNmFhMjYtNGZhYS00NDk2LWFlMTAtOTg0OGNhNmFiNGM0IiwidCI6ImVlNGUxNDk5LTRhMzUtNGIyZS1hZDQ3LTVmM2NmOWRlODY2NiIsImMiOjh9

It's a bit difficult to pinpoint a specific cause due to the way in which Covid is reported, but a lot may be due to people failing to seek help when needed, and the outcomes being poorer as a result. For example, stroke, heart failure and diabetes are all higher than usual, and there are suggestions that accessing services dropped during lockdowns. Cancer may well increase over the coming months/years as there will be a lag between the impact of delaying access to care, and death. 😢

stroke, heart failure and diabetes are all higher than usual

Partly no doubt due to people having (valid) safety concerns and therefore delayed diagnosis.

But - also, all three are linked to Covid infection. Covid causes heart issues and strokes, and it's also associated with the development of diabetes.

Cancer may well increase over the coming months/years as there will be a lag between the impact of delaying access to care, and death

Yes. The consequences of hospitals being at capacity with Covid patients, and hospital staff dying or off sick or resigning due to long term with Long Covid, PTSD, or burn out.

*long term illness

Yes there is no getting away from the enormous impact covid has had and will continue to have on the health of our population. To think at the very beginning some thought that it was all a huge over reaction and that by the end of the year the overall deaths would be no higher than the last 5 year average. If only!

Thanks for that link mini I’d hate to work in the NHS now. The next few years are going to be tough —even tougher than normal—

@mrshoho

Is it partly because of the 28 day counting system for covid deaths? They don't count as covid deaths if death occurs more than 28 days after testing positive.

I think yes. Knowing someone in hospital recently with it they did not register their Covid retests on their main records and were told they were "just for research purposes". The person I knew in in an earlier wave had all their re-tests marked on record and then the policy was only discharge after 2 negative tests.

This is from a couple of weeks or so ago

“COVID-19 deaths in England & Wales have risen from under 100 in early June to 668 in week 34.

“In recent weeks, excess mortality has been at a similar level to COVID-19 deaths, indicating that non-COVID deaths were in line with 2019 experience. This is in sharp contrast to earlier in the year, when deaths from causes other than COVID were at record lows.”

www.actuaries.org.uk/news-and-insights/news/excess-mortality-continues-rise-says-cmi

www.actuaries.org.uk/system/files/field/document/Mortality%20summary%20pandemic%20monitor%20Week%2037%202021%20v01%202021-09-28.pdf