Excess deaths are really high right now. Are these Covid deaths or something else?

[WhenSheWasBad]

I keep looking at the death rate. For a few months now there have been excess deaths on top of Covid deaths.

Anyone have any idea what is driving these excess deaths?
Are they actually Covid deaths that haven’t been registered as Covid deaths? Or other causes due to difficulties receiving NHS treatment over the past 18 months? Maybe both?

At first I was thinking it was a bit of an anomaly. But those excess deaths have been with us for a while now.

1. If you make it hard to access medical care for months on end, mortality will rise
2. people have lost livelihoods, and been prevented from accessing friends & family - the mental health impact will have long lasting repercussions (suicide but also broader health impacts from the stress)
3. covid delayed impacts
4. vaccine side effects (I know we're not allowed to mention these, and they are a small factor overall, but they're real and will be seen more commonly as strokes and heart attacks - most obviously in younger age groups where the background rates are lower)

I think also good to remember that people are pretty much back to normal activities now.

In 2020 the fact that there were less cars on the road and public transport being used, less gang activity, crime rates lower, drug use limited due to issues importing, were all contributing to lower death rates. Now we're seeing the direct & indirect impacts of COVID plus risks of normal life.

If your government's pandemic policies keep the NHS so busy with covid that

• the ambulance service and A&E are overloaded,

*operations and chemo are being cancelled,

*and hospitals don't have the resources for their regular monitoring outpatient appointments then excess deaths will inevitably result.

My mum's had 1 "regular 4 monthly appointment" since December 2019.

New Zealand is still in negative excess deaths by the way.

@WhenSheWasBad

Forgot the graphs

Much of that blue bit in the first peak is likely to be covid deaths misattributed as Alzheimer's because those people were previously diagnosed with Alzheimer's but were never tested for covid. It is widely estimated to be about 12500 deaths in the first peak.

@WhenSheWasBad

I keep looking at the death rate. For a few months now there have been excess deaths on top of Covid deaths.

Anyone have any idea what is driving these excess deaths?
Are they actually Covid deaths that haven’t been registered as Covid deaths? Or other causes due to difficulties receiving NHS treatment over the past 18 months? Maybe both?

At first I was thinking it was a bit of an anomaly. But those excess deaths have been with us for a while now.

Because of covid and lockdowns and mask wearing we've lost a lot of immunity to common cold and flu. So this current non covid virus that is doing the rounds could be killing more elderly/vulnerable people that it would in normal years.

New Zealand doesn't seem to have that problem.

My friends dh died because he didn't have his follow up cancer appointments and scans. He developed symptoms gp said they were because of covid refused to see him. It was his cancer back, by the time he was seen he was terminal and lived for a few weeks.

Those numbers in OP's chart, recent time period, look within the usual fluctuation margins for "excess deaths". Not all periods can be 'average' excess deaths, some are above, some below.

Some Americans are trying to argue that their recent excess deaths are all relatively young people being killed by Covid, their Delta variant is so very dangerous. I'm not buying it.

CFA: Because of covid and lockdowns and mask wearing we've lost a lot of immunity to common cold and flu. So this current non covid virus that is doing the rounds could be killing more elderly/vulnerable people that it would in normal years.

PNN: New Zealand doesn't seem to have that problem.

Winter 2021, NZ has had that problem. And it hit children not old folk.. NZ pursuing a zero-Respiratory virus strategy?

but a lot may be due to people failing to seek help when needed

Blame the dead person. Classy. No reference to the hundreds of thousands on waiting lists, the people that have had diagnoses missed because they can't see a GP, or they get fobbed off with a phone consultation.

It is most likely caused by a mixture of people not being able to get doctor's appointments, people being afraid to present at A&E either due to fear of catching Covid, or feeling like their illness is less important than covid, and the NHS being so focused on Covid that they have dropped the ball on other treatments and early detection procedures.