Why are NI &Scotland worse than England?

[3asAbird]

I know Scottish schools went back sooner.
Thought no was similar time to us.

Nicola and SNP used be super cautious now they seem to be happy with letting it rip.

NI seems had ongoing issues.
Saw they appealing any nurses registered or not to help.
Is it because they getting peak next wave early as thought vaccination broadly same as England and England will follow with higher figures.

In Scotland it was because there was a ‘Back to School/Back to Work’ push earlier than elsewhere. Plus fewer people had had it so there were fewer people with strong antibodies.

Scotland did a lot all at the same time so opened nightclubs, got rid of social distancing, self isolation and opened schools all within two weeks of each other so while obviously on mumsnet when covid only spreads on schools it’s all schools the current peak probably is a few adults getting it from a more open economy too!

It will be interesting if England’s back to school peak is as big with the fact it isn’t coinciding with the open of nightclubs etc. I anticipate not but only time will tell.

The image you've posted applies equally to many trusts in England as well. Our local A&E keeps putting up a message asking people to use a different hospital for emergencies as they can't safely manage even those in the most urgent need.

NI have had so much large scale concerts in the past few weeks, also cultural things like the 12th July, orange parades and the feile an phobail. I think because of the smaller land mass and smaller population than England it maybe looks worse than what it is when comparing it to England. There's a smaller amount of hospitals etc so staffing issues happen

It’s standard epidemiology, the crowded population dense areas suffer the big waves of infection first, then as the plague spreads to less populated areas they suffer their own big waves later on.

@Dghgcotcitc agreed. Anecdotal, but I know of 3 families in Scotland with school aged children with a positive adult. None of the children tested positive so can't easily point to the schools as the source.

[quote JustABloodyMinute]@Dghgcotcitc agreed. Anecdotal, but I know of 3 families in Scotland with school aged children with a positive adult. None of the children tested positive so can't easily point to the schools as the source.[/quote]
I wonder if kids can transmit without being postive themselves maybe via surface to surface transmission.

I wonder if kids can transmit without being postive themselves maybe via surface to surface transmission.

That’s clutching at straws a bit, isn’t it? Not everything is about schools. They could have caught it virtually anywhere else.

Scotland's central belt had some wet and cooler weather around opening-up time. I wonder if this caused the virus to spread more with people socialising indoors, then clubs opened and schools went back on top of already increased transmission? A perfect storm.

"I wonder if kids can transmit without being postive themselves maybe via surface to surface transmission.

That’s clutching at straws a bit, isn’t it?"

No, I don't think so. Kids often get very, very mild versions and might easily not test positive, but have some virus. There are usually hundreds of children in schools, mingling a lot, but I bet the average workplace in Scotland's not that big. I think it's quite likely the virus is coming to the home via the children, though not through surface transmission which has been proven to be minimal.

"I think it's quite likely the virus is coming to the home via the children, though not through surface transmission which has been proven to be minimal."

Why is that more likely to be the cause rather than adults meeting indoors in busy pubs, gigs, clubs without any social distancing? Surely that is unlikely to true if none of the children in the households (7 in total) tested negative with PCRs.

@Gwenhwyfar

"I wonder if kids can transmit without being postive themselves maybe via surface to surface transmission.

That’s clutching at straws a bit, isn’t it?"

No, I don't think so. Kids often get very, very mild versions and might easily not test positive, but have some virus. There are usually hundreds of children in schools, mingling a lot, but I bet the average workplace in Scotland's not that big. I think it's quite likely the virus is coming to the home via the children, though not through surface transmission which has been proven to be minimal.

PCR tests are really quite sensitive. That’s how they pick up asymptomatic infections. A much simpler and more likely explanation is adults catching it from other adults.

If you look at the break down by age the 2 main groups are 0-14 and their 22-44 year old parents. So yeah schools & the fact that there are no bubbles and you have to have overnight stays to be classed as a close contact. Kid A tests positive and stays at home, meanwhile all their classmates stay at school spreading it about until they test positive 3-5 days later. That’s what’s happening in my school anyway.

"PCR tests are really quite sensitive. That’s how they pick up asymptomatic infections."

But do they pick all asymptomatic infections? We don't know do we? How could we know?

And I find it hard to believe that an adult working in an office of a small or medium-sized business is more likely to catch Covid than a child in a school with hundreds of children, even if that adult takes public transport.
Why would it be the case?

A colleague's husband caught Covid when he hadn't been anywhere for a long time. Wife and children tested negative, but they were the ones who had left the house so it must have come via them.

Cases in Scotland started rising before schools went back

Current thinking is:

Aug 9th loosening of restrictions coinciding with schools going back
Doing more testing than England
Less immunity from previous waves

I live in Scotland and know 4 primary aged children who have tested positive this week so the kids can and are testing positive.

The self isolation rules at the moment baffle me. For example my niece has COVID. Sister and BIL went to work as per the rules as they tested negative on PCR. Lateral flow tested themselves regularly for a week after (not required btw just for their own peace of mind) now a week later they all have it so if they hadn't been checking would be out and about normally.

I get they might be kind of just letting it rip now but if that's the case why keep reporting numbers etc? Just let us get on with it if that's what they are doing.

I had it a week or so after kids went back to school. I didn’t get it from my kids and I didn’t pass it on. They all had negative pcr, youngest 2 went to their dad & went to school whilst I isolated. Older 2 in house never caught it. None of my kids has had it. Eldest is double vaccinated, 16 year old getting his this week.

No big outbreaks at either primary or secondary school and when schools went back the weather was glorious for ages, central belt. I know our hospitals are really busy (nurse) lots of early winter bugs babies with bronchiolitis, asthma attacks etc some normal for august but rest of hospital down on staff due to isolation etc it could be England are just a few weeks behind us who knows.

And I find it hard to believe that an adult working in an office of a small or medium-sized business is more likely to catch Covid than a child in a school with hundreds of children, even if that adult takes public transport.

Why would it be the case?

I’m not saying children aren’t catching it in droves, clearly they are based on the rates by age group that someone else has posted. But why if the children have had negative test results is it being assumed some sort of convoluted transmission without actually being infected is taking place, and not just that adults are catching it from other adults?

There's a very strong anti-vax movement in NI, which is not helping. Vaccine uptake amongst young people is lower here.

My husband does IT in a school - we are in Scotland. He says the cases are rife and a lot of kids are off at any one time. Of course they can pass Covid on. This has caused a large rise. Also there are a lot of festivals on just now, not just in Scotland but England also. Lots of young people catch the virus there. It was bound to happen.

@somethinginthewater

There's a very strong anti-vax movement in NI, which is not helping. Vaccine uptake amongst young people is lower here.

I was going to say this. Their vaccine uptake is the worst in the UK I think? Their covid deaths are almost 7 times higher than the Republic of Ireland which has a high vaccination rate, shocking figures really.

Vaccine uptake here is poor, and compliance for mask wearing and distancing is non existent in places.

Schools went back sooner. Look at the Covid maps and Leicestershire where the kids went back end of August.

It's definitely the schools despite what the government is saying.

NI - poor vaccine uptake and the health service was fucked before covid so it's even worse now. It's just more visible eg the daily dashboard showing the hospitals over capacity every day.

The numbers in Derry are wild. Everyone up there must have had it by now!!