Why are NI &Scotland worse than England?

[3asAbird]

I know Scottish schools went back sooner.
Thought no was similar time to us.

Nicola and SNP used be super cautious now they seem to be happy with letting it rip.

NI seems had ongoing issues.
Saw they appealing any nurses registered or not to help.
Is it because they getting peak next wave early as thought vaccination broadly same as England and England will follow with higher figures.

*I wonder if kids can transmit without being postive themselves maybe via surface to surface transmission.

Well they’ve pretty much debunked fomite transmission as a major issue, so fomite transmission among those not even testing positive sounds like reaching of the highest order.

Oops bold fail

I’m in NE Scotland and it is rife in the schools round me - primary and secondary. I also realise the rules have changed but I know several people who live with someone who tested positive, had a negative PCR so went about their business, then tested positive on LF then PCR later that week (one of whom - healthy man in his 50s, double jabbed - ended up in hospital but is thankfully home now and doing well).

Don't know about NI, but Scotland has high rates of obesity, and vitamin D/ due to poor diet and climate, and I bet those things are not helping. Scotland needs to think about putting Vitamin D into foodstuffs like Sweden now does.

How disappointing that NI has such a poor vaccine intake. The Republic of Ireland just over the border has an extremely high vaccine uptake, almost the best in the world I believe.

@TheKeatingFive

*I wonder if kids can transmit without being postive themselves maybe via surface to surface transmission.

Well they’ve pretty much debunked fomite transmission as a major issue, so fomite transmission among those not even testing positive sounds like reaching of the highest order.

It’s airborne which means it spreads to adopt in crowded indoor places. Especially where shouting and singing take place.

The main theory up here (and the government’s theory) is that Scotland had lower levels of immunity in the population before summer, due to locking down harder and for longer previously. So that’s likely part of it.

In response to some pp, we didn’t have a ‘back to school/back to work push’ (advice here is still to WFH if you can), and SNP government are still being more cautious than England (the WFH, masks still law, still some capacity limits, public spaces still advised to ‘be cautious’ around advising social distancing and limiting numbers, close contacts still legally have to isolate until neg PCR).

I know people are insistent that it’s schools, but:
a) the rise in cases started before schools went back, and it was climbing very fast before schools could possibly have had an effect
b) it didn’t go up faster/earlier in council areas where schools went back earlier
c) rates went up first in people in their early 20s, then people in mid/late teens, then the under-15s.

School return has probably contributed but it’s obviously not the whole picture.

Anecdotally there is a lot of covid around everywhere, including in our local schools, but we have more kids off with non-covid illnesses at the moment. It’s like a really bad winter bug season.

Here’s what I mean. Case rates by five different local authority areas. If the rise was due to schools, you’d be able to tell which of these had schools start back earliest. Can you?

(North Lan was 16 Aug, Glasgow 16 Aug, East Dun 12 Aug, Edinburgh 18 Aug, Angus 11 Aug.)

argh, this graph

It’s airborne which means it spreads to adopt in crowded indoor places. Especially where shouting and singing take place.

That’s not what the poster I replied to was talking about.

She suggested that it could be spread by non positive children, in the home, via surfaces. Which is nonsense.

The main theory up here (and the government’s theory) is that Scotland had lower levels of immunity in the population before summer, due to locking down harder and for longer previously. So that’s likely part of it.

We’ve seen this pattern of hard lockdown, big spike on opening time and again now. When will it sink in that this is what Covid does?

A few reasons in Scotland:

Lower rates of infections so less immunity.

Longer harder lockdowns, population more wrecked= more vulnerable to disease. Possibly some of the longest strictest lockdowns in the western world. A pursuit by the government of zero covid that seems to only in the last few months been abandoned.

Poor health, huge health inequalities. Life expectancy in some areas of Glasgow just 53 years old for a man.

Opening late on in the summer holidays, just prior to schools going back. Things like soft plays etc only just reopening during the summer holidays.

Not contact tracing children at school, unless overnight stays taking place. Case description not matching actual disease symptoms at present. Children with snotty noses, not one of the 3 symptoms.

Rotten weather for the last week of the school holidays, more inside mixing prior to return to school.

Central Belt (not Glasgow) here.

It's not just school kids. I'm told the pubs are back to heaving. The local coffee shop has its windows closed more often now as the hotter weather has subsided. Yes it's still warm if the sun's out but there has been a shift.

I'm back on vitamin D.

Very bad in Cornwall, too. All places where more people than usual holidayed this year. Probably part of the explanation.

Was told by a twenty year old man that their mates who were bigger to start with have put on lots of weight over the last 18 months. Public health fail right there.

Was told by a twenty year old man that their mates who were bigger to start with have put on lots of weight over the last 18 months. Public health fail right there.

Yup

@MrsSkylerWhite

Very bad in Cornwall, too. All places where more people than usual holidayed this year. Probably part of the explanation.

Cornwall 330 per 100,000

Only 4 areas of Scotland have rates less than this, the highest in Scotland is currently West Dunbartonshire with 1165 per 100000. The lowest rate is the western isles with 124 per 100000
They are stating 1 person in every 45 has covid at present in Scotland.
The numbers are crazy.

"But why if the children have had negative test results is it being assumed some sort of convoluted transmission without actually being infected is taking place, and not just that adults are catching it from other adults?"

A poster above mentions her sister and bil who had it but tested negative to begin with. Same could be happening with asymptomatic children.

@TheKeatingFive

*I wonder if kids can transmit without being postive themselves maybe via surface to surface transmission.

Well they’ve pretty much debunked fomite transmission as a major issue, so fomite transmission among those not even testing positive sounds like reaching of the highest order.

Yes, but transmission full stop between people who are still testing negative is possible isn't it? That's why in some cases people have to wait to take a test or take two tests.

@TheKeatingFive

Was told by a twenty year old man that their mates who were bigger to start with have put on lots of weight over the last 18 months. Public health fail right there.

Yup

Well, yes, but I saw some stats for Wales recently and obese people were over-represented in the Covid stats, but not by that much and it was also not possible to see their ages.

That's reassuring then Gwenhwyfar.
Is there anything, other than age, that was highlighted as a risk factor?

Yes, but transmission full stop between people who are still testing negative is possible isn't it?

People who don’t have covid can’t transmit covid.

I thought PCR testing was pretty accurate? Is that right? Though probably not 100%.

My feeling with NI (with absolutely zero data to back it up 😂) is that people here are generally more mistrustful of the government/ police etc- and can you really blame them?

The assumption amongst many is that local government either a) don’t know what they’re doing or b) haven’t got the population’s best interests at heart or both.

Even during the lockdowns the thought of the average NI person reporting a neighbour or colleague etc for not adhering to restrictions was out of the question- I’m not surprised we’re continuing to see the effects of this.

@TerribleCustomerCervix

My feeling with NI (with absolutely zero data to back it up 😂) is that people here are generally more mistrustful of the government/ police etc- and can you really blame them?

The assumption amongst many is that local government either a) don’t know what they’re doing or b) haven’t got the population’s best interests at heart or both.

Even during the lockdowns the thought of the average NI person reporting a neighbour or colleague etc for not adhering to restrictions was out of the question- I’m not surprised we’re continuing to see the effects of this.

The government are a laughing stock and no one takes any heed of them. When Michelle O'Neill announced a few weeks ago we could meet with extra people there was much amusement that this has been happening for ages but thanks for the go ahead Michelle. And then we had Edwin Poots saying the Catholics were to blame with spreading Covid. The whole lot of them are a joke. So people just get on with and do their own thing. People tend to have large extended families who have connections with other large extended families so their can be a lot of community contact. You can get to from one end of NI to the other in under 2 hours so it is very very small and everybody is connected.

The police here are armed and not well thought of mostly. There has been a lot of collusion and corruption over the years.
Both sides of the community are not trusting of the police. Likewise the police will err on the side of caution and avoid going into certain areas unless absolutely necessary.

You are right about reporting neighbours for breaking restrictions. Just not going to happen here.

I know giving us "permission" to meet in bigger groups!! People don't care and we're doing whatever they wanted anyway!!

@itsgrand and @TerribleCustomerCervix I totally agree.
On one side you've got traditional non compliance and on the other side you've got the belief that Jesus protects us better than any vaccine.