Australia/New Zealand New Thread

[Kokeshi123]

www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/09/pandemic-australia-still-liberal-democracy/619940/

Intrastate travel within Australia is also severely restricted. And the government of South Australia, one of the country’s six states, developed and is now testing an app as Orwellian as any in the free world to enforce its quarantine rules. People in South Australia will be forced to download an app that combines facial recognition and geolocation. The state will text them at random times, and thereafter they will have 15 minutes to take a picture of their face in the location where they are supposed to be. Should they fail, the local police department will be sent to follow up in person. “We don’t tell them how often or when, on a random basis they have to reply within 15 minutes,” Premier Steven Marshall explained. “I think every South Australian should feel pretty proud that we are the national pilot for the home-based quarantine app.”

This is... really really disturbing, honestly.

I grew up admiring (and, let's be honest, envying) Australians because as a nation, they always came across as a down-to-earth, fearless lot who had a healthy skepticism of authority while also being basically very civic/community minded.

What's gone wrong?

and asserted that parents in the UK are superior because they have been living in the pandemic and so they know what is a rational fear and what isn't, and expected all the Australians and Kiwis on the thread to just...be ok with that?

@KowhaiWhy

I think you might have misunderstood me. I am disputing the above accusation, by saying “I don’t believe that....”

@TheKeatingFive I listened to coronacast this morning and they said breakthrough infections are currently at 2%.

I had to listen again as surely that's not right? I thought it was much much higher

@TheKeatingFive I'm not actually in NZ, but much of what I am hearing suggests vaccines will be approved for kids in 2022. NZ will wait at least that long if it looks properly likely that that will be the case, not just to protect kids, but as @KowhaiWhy says to protect everyone. There are enough children in NZ that not vaccinating will result in no herd immunity. That in turn creates major problems in a country like NZ, which has a small population--if the one person COVID kills is the only neurooncologist in the country, or the only specialist engineer or...those things are a real problem.

I think Australia would have followed the same path, was Gladys Berejiklkian not determined to repeat the UK's mistakes, and Scummo determined to facilitate that.

@flyornofly the claim about COVID causing cognitive decline isn't 'hysterical' (yet another example of someone British claiming that antipodeans are 'hysterical' or 'irrational' for learning from your mistakes). Data here, based on the UK population. www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(21)00324-2/fulltext. Many of those people will appear 'fine', but the loss of that cognitive function could be a long term problem, especially as a loss of cognitive function at a population level, or in the individual as they approach old age. I agree the concerns about fomites are almost certainly specious at this point, but the curfewwhile it doesn't in itself prevent infectionprevents the in-home gatherings that would facilitate it. As for outdoor transmission, we have had several cases of confirmed outdoor transmission here (notably at some large sporting fixtures), so that is also an evidence based concern. Apparently it bears repeating: doing things differently does not make us overcautious or hysterical.

I don’t think it’s over cautious or hysterical, I just wouldn’t like to live there and I feel sorry for the families effected by the approach.

Apologies if I have read it wrong @Blackbird2020

The irrational fear (for young children’s health) generated by a new virus that is being kept a bay by all sorts of extreme international and national border controls is a hard thing to shrug off, I guess.

I'm still kind of hung up on this.

And yes I have had people I know, a close relative and a close family friend have died of covid.

@TheKeatingFive I listened to coronacast this morning and they said breakthrough infections are currently at 2%.

Yeah it seems far higher than that from what I can see. Possibly they mean breakthrough of significant disease. Or perhaps breakthroughs are being exaggerated in the media. Difficult to know.

I'm not actually in NZ, but much of what I am hearing suggests vaccines will be approved for kids in 2022.

Sources?

That in turn creates major problems in a country like NZ, which has a small population--if the one person COVID kills is the only neurooncologist in the country, or the only specialist engineer or...those things are a real problem.

If they’re of working age with no serious health conditions, then it’s vanishingly unlikely they’d die of covid when vaxxed themselves. This seems an odd argument though. They can die of other things (and are indeed much more likely to when they’re vaccinated). What would you do then?

I meant the strength of immune response is strongest in that order. I’m not sure about infections or disease.

I meant the strength of immune response is strongest in that order.

Ok thanks. I presume that’s antibody response as the rest of immune response is much harder to measure (though even more consequential).

Yes antibody response

@TheKeatingFive around 20% of people in NZ have an underlying health condition, but even being out of action for 2-3 weeks (which an oncologist, say, would be because they can't see cancer patients while infectious) would have a major impact in NZ.

Sources for kid vaccines
www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/covid19-vaccine-what-parents-need-to-know
www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2021/08/28/when-will-covid-19-vaccines-be-available-for-kids-under-12-years-old/

but even being out of action for 2-3 weeks (which an oncologist, say, would be because they can't see cancer patients while infectious) would have a major impact in NZ.

But why only concerned about Covid? Once vaxxed, many, many diseases are more severe and life threatening to someone of working age and there are plenty that will knock you out for a few weeks.

If death and absence is an issue for working age pop, then once vaccinated, Covid takes its place among many illnesses:

Sources for kid vaccines

We all know trials are happening. Approval processes are another thing entirely and there would be a lot to weigh up re decision making given the fact that covid is a mild disease for the vast majority of under 12s.

Also, of all the things vaccines do, preventing transmission is the thing they’re least good at.

So vaccinating under 12s to protect specialist engineers seems an odd strategy,

Also, I’d imagine small populations are more reliant on international expertise. That was certainly the case in Denmark where to get a world leader in any field among Danes was unlikely based purely on the numbers. They import expertise to teach and train. Is there any concern over how this my effect immigration? I understand that low income workers may like the idea of less competition but it sounds like at the very top level of expertise there is a need for more workers.

@TheKeatingFive the Forbes article in particular has timeline. Yes, those people can die of other things, or get sick from other things, but healthcare settings are places where COVID is spreading like wildfire (as are construction sites in Australia, where I am), and for NZ for now, COVID is a preventable illness.

Here is some of the science communication from New Zealand about their approach thespinoff.co.nz/society/18-08-2020/siouxsie-wiles-plan-a-or-b-learning-to-live-with-covid-19/

Yes, those people can die of other things, or get sick from other things, but healthcare settings are places where COVID is spreading like wildfire

And is there any actual meaningful modelling on what impact vaccinating under 12s would have on spread within healthcare settings?

I would have though that there’s a list the length of my arm of measures that would be more effective to combat healthcare spread.

the Forbes article in particular has timeline

But not a guarantee of approval.

It’ll probably happen of course, but I just don’t follow the logic of many of these arguments. The vaccines are extremely effective in preventing serious illness and death. So every country should be absolutely gung ho in jabbing those vulnerable to those. The vaccines are much less effective in preventing transmission and mild illness. So holding off on opening up indefinitely to jab under 12s would have to be weighed up vary carefully against the costs of that, because it’s unlikely to make much difference on the metrics that matter.

That article literally ignores the vaccine 🤔 and how it’s over 90% effective.

Elimination is simply not possible at this stage without severe border restrictions forever (or at least until second gen vaccines appear).

Even then there will be outbreaks.

It’s endemic now and the strategy needs to be about mitigating severe disease.

Er....it's from August last year. When there was no guarantee of vaccine timelines. Kind of like for kids now.

I didn’t see it’s from last August. I did think a lot of the information in it was quite out of date so now that makes more sense.

It’s an opinion piece. Ok. I don’t know what that means at this point.

It’s become so political in aus and NZ I thinks they’ve left the science a while back now. As democracies though I have trust that it will all iron out in the end.

I understand why Elimination looked feasible in August of last year.

But now? No. The vaccines we have don’t offer sterilising immunity. There will be cases circulating all over the world for the foreseeable.

Unless you keep the borders essentially closed until, well I’m not sure when exactly.

[quote CallItLoneliness]**@TheKeatingFive* I'm not actually in NZ, but much of what I am hearing suggests vaccines will be approved for kids in 2022. NZ will wait at least that long if it looks properly likely that that will be the case, not just to protect kids, but as @KowhaiWhy* says to protect everyone. There are enough children in NZ that not vaccinating will result in no herd immunity. That in turn creates major problems in a country like NZ, which has a small population--if the one person COVID kills is the only neurooncologist in the country, or the only specialist engineer or...those things are a real problem.

I think Australia would have followed the same path, was Gladys Berejiklkian not determined to repeat the UK's mistakes, and Scummo determined to facilitate that.

@flyornofly the claim about COVID causing cognitive decline isn't 'hysterical' (yet another example of someone British claiming that antipodeans are 'hysterical' or 'irrational' for learning from your mistakes). Data here, based on the UK population. www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(21)00324-2/fulltext. Many of those people will appear 'fine', but the loss of that cognitive function could be a long term problem, especially as a loss of cognitive function at a population level, or in the individual as they approach old age. I agree the concerns about fomites are almost certainly specious at this point, but the curfewwhile it doesn't in itself prevent infectionprevents the in-home gatherings that would facilitate it. As for outdoor transmission, we have had several cases of confirmed outdoor transmission here (notably at some large sporting fixtures), so that is also an evidence based concern. Apparently it bears repeating: doing things differently does not make us overcautious or hysterical.[/quote]
I am not British, I am Australian. I live in the U.K.

And when I talk about outdoor transmission I mean outside of major events. Being tutted at on the beach by Australians for not wearing a mask is the definition of hysteria. As for curfew, even epidemiologists cannot find any evidence they help cut transmission. There is cautious and then there is irrational, and having lived through 2 weeks of Australian quarantine I have certainly experienced the latter.

And as for the argument that you need to vaccination children to stop NZ’s only specialist oncologist from dying…I am lost for words.

And as for the argument that you need to vaccination children to stop NZ’s only specialist oncologist from dying…I am lost for words.

I’m glad it’s not just baffled by that argument. Bizarre.