What are your predictions for this school year?

[Sheepsheepmoresheep]

Be interesting to look back. I didn’t think they’d close the schools again this time last year, but I was wrong!

I don’t think they’ll close the schools again … but we’ll see!

I think some will feel like that Noble but if real life is anything like MN then many just want schools open regardless.

I think it's possible to want schools open and to still not be happy at the prospect of your kid catching covid.

@meditrina

Remarkable fuck ups for sixth formers.

Year 13 will be facing exams after a very disrupted year 12, but there still appears to be no word on whether there will be any changes to exam format (there had been discussions about a slimmed down 'core' on which questions will be expected, and then more topics in options, so candidates should still be able to find enough questions to answer even if they have some gaps. There's only really the autumn term to tackle new teaching, so it looks as if it could be too little too late. And of course these DC - who did not sit GCSE, so will be having their first experience of public exams - will be competing for university places with all those with assessed grades who took a gap year.

Year 12 will be embarking on A levels even though they may not have completed GCSE courses, so more sixth form teaching time, in done subjects, will be going in to areas that ought to have been covered earlier and will have to teach from scratch rather than recap

Yes, all of this.

Year 13 have had such a bad run of it and now their chances of getting into the university of their choice is massively reduced by 2 years of A level grade inflation and 2 years of mass deferrals, leaving as much as 1/3 normal places on some competitive courses, but the universities don't want to put off the best students so don't reveal that 100 of their 150 places have already been allocated to deferrals and there are only 50 left.

And apparently there won't be any meaningful clearing next year according to Mike Nicholson, admissions direct at Bath uni so they had better make sure they have plenty of low ranking courses at low ranking universities on their UCAS.

I could go on and on. Last year's year 13 given massive priority on teaching and library access, but ultimately given inflated teacher assessed grades. Now this new year's year 13 will be overlooked by a year 12 that got massively inflated GCSE grades with reduced teaching, reduced curriculum and no actual exams.

I think @noblegiraffe has it nailed.
(Sadly....)

Plus more sixth form issues: Vaccinations. My DC has had both, so have their friends.
Some pupils have had one.
A miniscule minority will have a medical condition that will prevent them even having one.
Some will be anti-vaxxing numpties who haven't had one.

Can't treat the responsible pupils the same as the irresponsible ones, but the irresponsible ones and their irresponsible parents will the ones loudest about their 'rights'..

@noblegiraffe

I think it's possible to want schools open and to still not be happy at the prospect of your kid catching covid.

Agree.

Which is why some simple things would have been so sensible-:
-mask wearing recommended
-vaccines for 12-15
-those with positive household members to stay at home.
-delay the restart of assemblies

@PrincessNutNuts

My prediction is that our children's education will be disrupted for a third school year by the government's refusal to protect them adequately.

Hundreds of thousands of children will get covid.

Thousands will be admitted to hospital because of it.

And tens of thousands will have long term health consequences.

So make sure you keep evidence of positive tests in case you need to access one of the new Long Covid centres or other medical support because of long term covid effects in the future.

I hope there aren't any anxious people out there reading this and believing it. There is zero reason to believe this will happen. Zero. I'm really tired of people making up nonsense apocalyptic scenarios - what's the purpose of it? Are you enjoying being afraid? Do you feed on the fear of others?

Are there statistics for young people and long Covid?

Today in scotland we had the highest number of cases since the pandemic began I've been vaccinated since February so probably no immunity left, I think here we will be back in levels soon

I don't think they will have a national closure.
Local closures due to outbreaks/staffing issues etc.
Hopefully no more bubble isolations. Stay at home if symptomatic and test.
Winter will be the test. And any other variants.

@Bryonyshcmyony A lot of us have expressed concern about the transmission of Covid within schools, yet you deliberately single out my post. Are the rest of us "wind-up merchants" too?

@lalahotpants

Today in scotland we had the highest number of cases since the pandemic began I've been vaccinated since February so probably no immunity left, I think here we will be back in levels soon

I think perhaps in Scotland releasing measures at the same time as schools went back was possibly not the best idea as both happened at the same time

I agree I think unless something happens with a variant we wont have national closures but more localised ones based on schools making decisions themselves based on what is happening on the ground.

This winter will be the test - boosters are probably happening and then it depends on children vaccinations

@PrincessNutNuts why do you think suddenly thousands will be - Delta has already been in schools. I agree that it could get out of hand but your figures verge on the hyperbolic and therefore your statement gets lost in them.

Concern about long covid and children being hospitalised is a valid concern - place it in a message likes yours and it just becomes scaremongering

Number of teachers off especially those not double jabbed (stress about Covid and potential isolation - not sure what rules are currently) will be high and that will impact school budgets with cover big time and put stress on the colleagues that are in school.

[quote NannyAndJohn]@Bryonyshcmyony A lot of us have expressed concern about the transmission of Covid within schools, yet you deliberately single out my post. Are the rest of us "wind-up merchants" too?[/quote]
There is a difference I think between expressing concern that an event may occur and how many it will effect and making statements that things are definitely likely to occur at hyperbolic numbers.

@noblegiraffe sets them out in a sensible way that most of us can agree may well happen whilst being realistic that people want and need schools open.

Having that a starting point for discussion is far better than throwing around numbers in the thousands or making definitive statements for which there can be no certainty that they will happen and render the discussion I think pointless
@Howshouldibehave
Yes

Which is why some simple things would have been so sensible-:
-mask wearing recommended
-vaccines for 12-15
-those with positive household members to stay at home.
-delay the restart of assemblies

is an excellent list - DD school is still recommending masks in communal areas for example and still going some staggered starts and zones where possible whilst moving into a more normal school experience

Strange place MN.

A few weeks a poster started a thread saying that the numbers were going up and it was worrying.

She was utterly torn to spreads.

Now people are saying they are concerned about the numbers.

A few posters on here have mentioned waning immunity from vaccines. A small degree of waning may be happening with regards to prevention of symptomatic illness.

Little to no waning appears to have happened so far in relation to protection against severe disease/hospitalisation so posters on here saying things like I have no immunity now as I was vaccinated 6 months ago are not correct. Hopefully this informative Twitter thread will help

twitter.com/mugecevik/status/1430218372348878860?s=21

Why do I think suddenly thousands will be what? @Quartz2208?

Which is why some simple things would have been so sensible-:
-mask wearing recommended
-vaccines for 12-15
-those with positive household members to stay at home.
-delay the restart of assemblies

Yes please to 3 of those:

"delay the restart of assemblies" - god, have the SMT learnt nothing. Online assemblies are so much better. Less transmission of illness between tutor groups. Fewer distractions. Can see and hear clearly, no-one's big head in the way. And so much better for pupils with mental health issues, many of whom hate being confined in a large space with hundreds of people with no escape except by making a scene.

"vaccines for 12-15" - yes, the UK once again snatching defeat from the hands of victory on the vaccine front. Denying 12-15 year olds the vaccine approved for their use, which is available to every other 12-15 year old in any other developed country in the Western world. Plus only offering most 16-17 year old a single vaccine.

"mask wearing recommended" - yes, in classes that have had a positive case, mask wearing would be good, plus for pupils with positive cases at home.

Hospitalised Princess a word was missing - why say 1000s rather than concern that delta is seeing an increase in child hospitalisation

Surely you can see that one is a point worth discussing the other just seems scaremongering

I predict that less and less parents will do the testing, this will help keep the numbers down.....
There will be the odd school that has a big outbreak, and get shut down. But it won't be many.
More generally, I also predict that over the next 18 months or so, the daily death stats will receive less and less attention, and over the next 5 years or so, covid will have integrated itself into our psyche as something we just live with.
The impact on the examination system will be long lasting, resulting in the end to any form of national exam at Year 11. I think this could take up to 10 years, though.

I hope there aren't any anxious people out there reading this and believing it. There is zero reason to believe this will happen. Zero

You really don’t think it will spread in schools given no masks, no distancing, no isolations and children in school whilst positive cases in their households, not testing as think it’s a cold etc?

@Quartz2208

Hospitalised Princess a word was missing - why say 1000s rather than concern that delta is seeing an increase in child hospitalisation

Surely you can see that one is a point worth discussing the other just seems scaremongering

I'm under the impression that there were 1000 pre school and school age hospital admissions in July in England alone.

And slightly more so far in August.

Having read the government's plan for our children to return to school, I am expecting that trend to continue.

@IceCreamAndCandyfloss

I hope there aren't any anxious people out there reading this and believing it. There is zero reason to believe this will happen. Zero

You really don’t think it will spread in schools given no masks, no distancing, no isolations and children in school whilst positive cases in their households, not testing as think it’s a cold etc?

Yes of course it'll spread, that's what viruses do. That's not what the person I was responding to said. Did you read the post?

Maybe we’re all insane, but the mood at work is that we’re looking at a more normal year.